Japan doesn't attack China in 37, declares war on Britain after the Fall of France

Hypothetically, if Japan decided not to attack China in 1937, and then attacked the British Empire and Dutch East Indies after the fall of France, could the British have held on? They don't attack the US, just the European Colonial powers.
 
The entire Japanese war was centered on China, and this was true since the late 1920s. The reason why they attacked China in exactly 1937 is because Chiang Kai-shek got involved in the Xi'an incident and created the United Front with the Communists. Japan did not want to see China unified against it, because it had conquered Manchuria in 1931 and despite their best efforts could not get the Chinese government to accept that annexation. If China was no longer stuck in warlordism, it might get strong enough to kick Japan out.

Without a war in China at all (let's say that Chiang Kai-shek is killed during the Xi'an Incident and the Chinese government falls apart), it's probable that Japan won't attack anyone. They would continue to gain influence in China, but would not need a war to do it. This would butterfly the Western embargo and thus the Pacific war in general.
 
More to the point, if theyre not at war in china, they dont NEED the resources from the south.

They have the money to buy goods, they arent using up resources at a huge rate, and theres no embargos.

If they dont go to war against china, they might even sell war goods to the allies and make a huge profit.
 
The entire Japanese war was centered on China, and this was true since the late 1920s. The reason why they attacked China in exactly 1937 is because Chiang Kai-shek got involved in the Xi'an incident and created the United Front with the Communists. Japan did not want to see China unified against it, because it had conquered Manchuria in 1931 and despite their best efforts could not get the Chinese government to accept that annexation. If China was no longer stuck in warlordism, it might get strong enough to kick Japan out.

Without a war in China at all (let's say that Chiang Kai-shek is killed during the Xi'an Incident and the Chinese government falls apart), it's probable that Japan won't attack anyone. They would continue to gain influence in China, but would not need a war to do it. This would butterfly the Western embargo and thus the Pacific war in general.

This is why it bugs me that so many AH scenarios, even in radically different worlds, have Imperial Japan in a total war with China. In OTL, China was in the bizarre situation were Militarist Japan viewed it as weak and disunited--and thus ripe for conquest--but also strengthening, and so Japan had to act now before it could become threatening. If China was weaker or stronger, a total war would likely not have happened. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no Second Sino-Japanese War in 90 out of a 100 worlds, if you know what I mean.

If they dont go to war against china, they might even sell war goods to the allies and make a huge profit.
Indeed, good point. It certainly worked during the First World War.

The industrialists (zaibutsu) were a power in Japanese politics before the war. Historically, the sided with the Militarists. The combination of global Great Depression and especially post-Smoot-Hawley Tarrif situtation meant they could no longer make money through international trade. Out of desperation, they turned to the Militarists, who could at least provide them with huge military production contracts. But if Japan doesn't go to war in 1937, then there are no Militarists, or at least they didn't take over. That means that the zaibatsu families are still important. After the war starts in Europe, they will make huge amounts of money selling to the UK and France, and that means an important power block will be anti-war. You might even see a "US during the First World War" scenario, in which business interests start pushing Japan towards declaring war to protect the UK, in order to protect the loans and business interests there.

Edit: Someone should write a TL about Japan joining the Allies during WWII. It could be about how Japan does what it did during the first war, and sends some warships to the Med. You could have a huge battle for control of the Med between an Anglo-Japanese fleet on one side and a Italo-Vichy-German force on the other. I would totally read that.:)
 
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The entire Japanese war was centered on China, and this was true since the late 1920s. The reason why they attacked China in exactly 1937 is because Chiang Kai-shek got involved in the Xi'an incident and created the United Front with the Communists. Japan did not want to see China unified against it, because it had conquered Manchuria in 1931 and despite their best efforts could not get the Chinese government to accept that annexation. If China was no longer stuck in warlordism, it might get strong enough to kick Japan out.

Without a war in China at all (let's say that Chiang Kai-shek is killed during the Xi'an Incident and the Chinese government falls apart), it's probable that Japan won't attack anyone. They would continue to gain influence in China, but would not need a war to do it. This would butterfly the Western embargo and thus the Pacific war in general.

^ This.

The Imperial Japan would have never have attacked the British or the Americans if they weren't at war with China. Period.

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Edit: Someone should write a TL about Japan joining the Allies during WWII. It could be about how Japan does what it did during the first war, and sends some warships to the Med. You could have a huge battle for control of the Med between an Anglo-Japanese fleet on one side and a Italo-Vichy-German force on the other. I would totally read that.
Aye.

But the real meat of such a timeline comes with tweaking the British political establishment and creating a slightly different end result to the Great War.

Basically if the 21 Demards had gone through, then China had developed like Japanese Manchuria, then they would have been a very strong potential ally in the build up to WWII and it is likely that the Allies might have probally sided against the Soviets for their part in what happened in Poland.

Without this or a simmilar event in China it might be more difficult not to prevent the deterioration of independant relations/influence that puts China and Japan at greater logger-heads. On the plus side, a Japanese-China may no fall to the Communists and so experience much better industrialisation and growth as a result of the Chinese Civil War and Mao's reforms (i.e. Taiwan but on the mainland). However China may be more fragmented with Xinjiang, Gansu, Tibet ,Sichuan/Yunnan all being self governing regions as opposed to bing part of a greater Chinese civilisation state.


In terms of naval capacity, Japan would likely end up producing resources/supplies on liesence and trade and shipping them to North/Africa Suez and the Japanese may have been the dominate troops dealing with Iraq, Iran and fighting in Eygpt. Depending on the butterflies. As for actually fighting in Europe, fairly unlikely.

The US may have taken a much large 'back seat' in such a conflict, since lack of threat in the pacific precludes some millitary concerns, and the US could make a lot of money on the trade of oil to Japan, so long as Japan are not 'barbarous' in their domination of Manchuria and China.


If such a timeline was to be written, it would be a lot of speculation and would require a good deal of knowledge of the British Political zietguiest in the early 1920s to see how alignments may be changed. I do not have such knowledge.
 

katchen

Banned
Well here's the thing. The Japanese had four years after 1931 to take over the rest of Inner Mongolia to Ningshsia and Lanchou, Kansu and build a railroad to Lanchou, opening up the mineral wealth of Inner Mongolia and accessing the warlords of Shansi and Shensi. They could have helped the warlord in Shensi extinguish the Yenan Soviet before Mao even got there, butterflying away the United front or forcing the Communists to build a Soviet someplace else. The Shensi-Sichuan border maybe or the Yunnan-Sichuan border.

The Russians, while they were in a position to protect the Mongolian People's Republic, were not in a position to stop the Japanese in Inner Mongolia in the 1930s. Thus, the invasion of China is unnecessary in 1937 or maybe gets delayed until 1939. If and when it does happen, it's on a wider front North to South possibly crossing the Tsinling Shan into Sichuan before the Kuomintang can effectively resist since there is already a railroad close to Sian.

Kansu west into Sinkiang? Not likely. If the Japanese do that, the Russians will likely meet the Japanese at Hami. and the Japanese know it. Besides, Kansu is a proper Chinese province.
 
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