Japan does not surrender after Nagasaki

I'm sorry if this has been done to death before, but here goes.

What would have happened if Japan hadn't surrendered after Nagasaki? If I recall correctly, the vote to end the war was close.

With no bombs remaining (at least for the time being), I would expect the US would have been forced to try to invade, expensive as it would have been. At the very least, they would have had to occupy the islands before the Russians took too much territory.

Things get tricky when the next bomb becomes available. Deploying it near the front could yield too many American casualties. I suppose they can detonate it behind enemy lines somewhere. What is also possible is that if things go bad with Russia they can threaten to try to push the Russians out of Japan or something crazy like that.

It's also interesting to consider how the war would effect the 1948 election if it lasts that long.
 
Operation Olympic and the Soviet invasion of Hokkaido start and eventually succeed, followed by more nuclear bombings, Operation Coronet, and a Soviet invasion of the Tohoku region.
 

nbcman

Donor
I'm sorry if this has been done to death before, but here goes.

What would have happened if Japan hadn't surrendered after Nagasaki? If I recall correctly, the vote to end the war was close.

With no bombs remaining (at least for the time being), I would expect the US would have been forced to try to invade, expensive as it would have been. At the very least, they would have had to occupy the islands before the Russians took too much territory.

Things get tricky when the next bomb becomes available. Deploying it near the front could yield too many American casualties. I suppose they can detonate it behind enemy lines somewhere. What is also possible is that if things go bad with Russia they can threaten to try to push the Russians out of Japan or something crazy like that.

It's also interesting to consider how the war would effect the 1948 election if it lasts that long.
There was another bomb casing on Tinian (Bomb No. 4) that was awaiting it's plutonium core which was scheduled to be assembled by 19 August. There were more bombs that were planned to be produced in September (3-4), October (3-4), November (5), December (7) and increasing thereafter according to General Groves' report of 30 July 1945. So there would be more a-bombs in the pipeline. But if the Japanese didn't surrender after getting hit by 10 bombs between August and October, Op Olympic was planned for Nov 1945.
 
The so called Demon Core was waiting for a C-54 to carry to a bomb casing on Tinian, when a Presidential Hold was placed after the 2nd bomb dropped.

So if Tokyo doesn't send out the Surrender Message, that plane takes off, and city #3 get.an introduction to Instant Sunshine.

US bomb production would be 3 a month, ramping up to more as months go by before Op Downfall.
EDIT:Ninja'ed
 
I'm sorry if this has been done to death before, but here goes.

What would have happened if Japan hadn't surrendered after Nagasaki? If I recall correctly, the vote to end the war was close.

With no bombs remaining (at least for the time being),

There was a third Plutonium core enroute, & three more cores readied in the US. Then production at the Hanniford facility. So, a minimum of five more cores delivered by December. Perhaps ten depending on which production estimates one uses. Parsons had a dozen implosion devices on hand on Tinian ready for cores. So a minimum of four more detonations before the end of October. Meanwhile the conventional air raids continue....

MacArthur was the principle proponent of early invasion. Others were more ambivalent & looking at the full array of cost estimates, not just the best case versions Mac used. There no guarantee either OLYMPIC or CORRNET would have been executed. The October Typhoon that trashed the Okinawa logistics base was on of several variables & wild cards that serious challenged the autumn invasion dates. its likely that with 3-4 city killing raids per month in August & September a more conservative strategy would be taken.
 
I don't know if this is crazy thinking, but the more bombs get produced with the Soviets in the alliance the more likely the Soviets may get their hands on one while the war is still going on.
 
Wasn't the real reason Japan surrendered was the Soviet invasion of Manchuria more than the atomic bombings? I do see a few more cities reduced to ashes but once the Soviets invade it's all over for Japan.
 
Wasn't the real reason Japan surrendered was the Soviet invasion of Manchuria more than the atomic bombings? I do see a few more cities reduced to ashes but once the Soviets invade it's all over for Japan.
No. That’s a common claim, but it’s not backed up by events.
 
Wasn't the real reason Japan surrendered was the Soviet invasion of Manchuria more than the atomic bombings? I do see a few more cities reduced to ashes but once the Soviets invade it's all over for Japan.
Soviets were not mentioned in the surrender broadcast as a cause, but the 'cruel bomb' was
 
Wasn't the real reason Japan surrendered was the Soviet invasion of Manchuria more than the atomic bombings? I do see a few more cities reduced to ashes but once the Soviets invade it's all over for Japan.

It had a role, but the bombs were the main reason. It was Hirohito's personal intervention on account of the second nuclear attack that ended the war, otherwise fighting would have continued.
 
So if the coup manages to take out Hirohito then I don't see a surrender no matter how many cities disappear...
 
So if the coup manages to take out Hirohito then I don't see a surrender no matter how many cities disappear...

It's a difficult question. By the time of the "Kyujo Incident" the major government ministers already knew the Emperor's will and would have opposed the conspirators even if they were able to isolate Hirohito. There was no one powerful enough who was directly involved and therefore the plot lacked both muscle and credibility. If Anami, Umezu, and a large portion of IJA generals knew about and consented to the plan earlier on, it might have worked, but those men had all sworn allegiance to the Emperor and not the war effort itself.

The only way out of this would be if they managed to delude themselves into believing Hirohito had become mentally unbalanced and detained him "for his own sake," but for the Japanese psyche even this would have been unthinkable.

Then again, so was surrender.
 
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