Japan discovers Daqing oil fields in 1935 - how does it change their foreign policy?

[ivanotter]

I read somewhere that the Indonesian oil was so pure you could literally just fill up the car with it. No need for a refinery.

We could even let the discovery - and subsequent building up of production - happen in late '20s.

That will then mean that Japan needs to take it over as it would fully-fledged operational.

Now that should have an impact!

 

[Derek Pullem]

Communist China didn't get access to American drill bits until 1984 and still was developing the oil field from 1959 onwards.

Quite - Daqing was producing 7 million tonnes per year 5 years after discovery. Japan's oil demand for imports was around 45 million barrels per year or around 6 million tonnes. There is a difference between oil products and oil but certainly Japan would be self sufficient after 10 years of Daqing. Essentially they would not need to fight a war with the Allies for oil. There may be other strategic goods that they would need to find but as Germany showed, most of these can be replaced with alternatives (e.g. synthetic rubber) or internal resources (Korea is a veritable treasure chest) can be exploited.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/History-and-forecast-results-of-Daqing-oil-production_fig1_273766123

 

[Lucius Verus]

Yes it does, for one oil self-sufficiency eliminates the movement into Southern Indochina, which triggered the sanctions in the first place; that was clearly only an offensive move directed at the Netherlands East Indies. Likewise, oil exports in the Pre-War Era gives Japan hard currency to develop its own artificial rubber system and stockpile in the meantime, just like Germany and the United States did.

First line, scrap metal, rubber and more the full list is exhaustive and the only thing Japan had in abundance was copper. Second thing, oil production, tankers, and refining were all in short supply; it'd take quite a feat to handwave all of this into existence while dealing with bandits in Manchuria within 9 years before pearl harbor. Even today refineries are high tech things with huge capital requirements.

I don't doubt their eventual capability to get oil out, I doubt their ability to make a dent in their war economy much less export enough to generate a surplus after spending 30 percent of their GDP on their military.

And develop it's own rubber systems? These things take time, money, and talent the first two of which are in short supply. Perhaps most importantly it takes forsight, something in short supply in Japanese leadership at the time.

 

[History Learner]

First line, scrap metal, rubber and more the full list is exhaustive and the only thing Japan had in abundance was copper. Second thing, oil production, tankers, and refining were all in short supply; it'd take quite a feat to handwave all of this into existence while dealing with bandits in Manchuria within 9 years before pearl harbor. Even today refineries are high tech things with huge capital requirements.

I don't doubt their eventual capability to get oil out, I doubt their ability to make a dent in their war economy much less export enough to generate a surplus after spending 30 percent of their GDP on their military.

And develop it's own rubber systems? These things take time, money, and talent the first two of which are in short supply. Perhaps most importantly it takes forsight, something in short supply in Japanese leadership at the time.

Basically everything but scrap metal can be gained fairly quickly; oil production and refining, as evidenced by their OTL performance, was easily doable on the short scale while they did move to massively increase tanker production during the war as well. When presented with the possibility of oil self-sufficiency-and thus an actual need to construct tankers-this can likewise be done much more efficiently and effectively in peace time conditions. 1929-1939 saw rapid industrial development, driven in part by licensing agreements with the Germans starting around 1935-1937, which could easily see Japan import the synthetic rubber knowledge of Germany in exchange for oil exports and/or hard currency from the exports to other nations.

Finally, the USSR spent over 30% of its GDP on the military and was able to maintain a fairly stable budget off the back of its oil exports for a contemporary example.

 

[nbcman]

Y'know, one of the finest potential quick to exploit oil fields I've ever seen is onshore East Timor.

You can literally set the ground on fire, and I know from Texas you can get workable fields at a depth of 100 feet. East Timor has some pretty good oil.

During WW2, the Japanese did not have the technical capability to use the several thousand year old Chinese invention of the "oil well with attached pump", but rather dug pits to get the crude.

Needless to say, they got two thirds of fuck all oil out of Timor during the War.

You'd hope that any power that decided on an aggressive war to sieze oil fields would put together a technical crew involving drillers and refiners.

But nope. This is apparently incompatible with the Bushido spirit or something.

Similarly, this carefully planned lack of capability was also seen with refining - they actually tried using straight crude on warships.

Now. I've seen a lot of dumb things on this forum, but Im reminded that - no matter how stupid things get around here - the actual Japanese of the Second World War were an order of magnitude more stupid.

Japan did have oil experts and they were sending them to assist in the restart of the wells in the NEI. And Japan sorta was oil independent (but still with insufficient tanker capacity) in WW2 after they got the larger oil facilities working but not to 1940 levels. One hiccup in their plan to restore production was when USS Grenadier sank the Taiyo Maru in the summer of 1942 which carried hundreds of oil technicians and other construction technicians to set up facilities in the NEI. About half of the techs died in the attack.

EDIT: The amazing thing is not only did the US torpedos actually work, she was able to get a firing solution with the poor weather and gale-force winds.

 

[Derek Pullem]

And develop it's own rubber systems? These things take time, money, and talent the first two of which are in short supply. Perhaps most importantly it takes forsight, something in short supply in Japanese leadership at the time.

I'm surprised you have so little regard for Japanese industry. When they needed technology they were able to access it.

C.I.O.S. Report Item No. 30 File XXXI-23 Metallgesellschaft-Lurgi Frankfurt Am Main

In a (relatively) peacetime environment they should be able to find technology for rubber and other synthetics relatively easily. The technology was available from USA, Germany and Russia - take your pick which one the Japanese will partner with - my money would either be on the Germans or the Russians depending which way they ended up being aligned. Besides, rubber trade through neutrals was a significant part of Germany's stockpiling and it' unlikely that a complete ban on rubber would be achievable (Thailand and Vichy France would be potential sources).

 

[Lucius Verus]

Basically everything but scrap metal can be gained fairly quickly; oil production and refining, as evidenced by their OTL performance, was easily doable on the short scale while they did move to massively increase tanker production during the war as well. When presented with the possibility of oil self-sufficiency-and thus an actual need to construct tankers-this can likewise be done much more efficiently and effectively in peace time conditions. 1929-1939 saw rapid industrial development, driven in part by licensing agreements with the Germans starting around 1935-1937, which could easily see Japan import the synthetic rubber knowledge of Germany in exchange for oil exports and/or hard currency from the exports to other nations.

Finally, the USSR spent over 30% of its GDP on the military and was able to maintain a fairly stable budget off the back of its oil exports for a contemporary example.

Read up on the volunteer armies of Manchurian. Japan was fighting a war then insurgency for all of its occupation to which oil fields and pipe lines are especially vulnerable to. It's probably a good reason why oil wasn't discovered there in the first place.

The Soviet Union had a far larger starting industrial base and wasn't conducting an active war at the time, it already had its oil fields which coincidentally became a valuable export fueling the Brezhnev doctrine during high oil prices of the 70s. As the current global oil glut shows, oil is only valuable during global shortages (the opposite of the Great Depression) and the USA during the 1930s was sitting on reserve supply and still produced 63% of global crude.

Admiral Fischer makes the point in detail below.

 

[SsgtC]

Similarly, this carefully planned lack of capability was also seen with refining - they actually tried using straight crude on warships.

Indonesian light crude was so sweet that you could easily pump the raw crude straight from the well into your ship's bunkers. Obviously it's not an ideal solution as it results in increased maintenance on your boilers. But during a war when every drop of refined oil products is precious and you have limited refining capacity, it makes a hell of a lot of sense to trade off the increased long term maintenance for not having to tie up scare refining capacity.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Read up on the volunteer armies of Manchurian. Japan was fighting a war then insurgency for all of its occupation to which oil fields and pipe lines are especially vulnerable to. It's probably a good reason why oil wasn't discovered there in the first place.

Most of the primary opposition to Japanese rule was broken up by 1935. By 1940 all practical resistance had ceased. With a vital national resoure the resoures to support oilfield security and anti-partisan attacks would most likely be increased bringing forward these dates

 

[JudgeKing]

Japan could also find the Liaohe oil field. IIRC, Japanese companies did prospect the area in OTL and missed it by a hundred or so meters.

 

[raharris1973]

Ties down more force structure in far northern Manchuria, to guard developmental sites? Daqing is at the northern tip along the Amur. Exposed.

 

[nbcman]

Indonesian light crude was so sweet that you could easily pump the raw crude straight from the well into your ship's bunkers. Obviously it's not an ideal solution as it results in increased maintenance on your boilers. But during a war when every drop of refined oil products is precious and you have limited refining capacity, it makes a hell of a lot of sense to trade off the increased long term maintenance for not having to tie up scare refining capacity.

And the majority of the IJN vessels that were burning the raw crude didn't have to worry about increased boiler maintenance after the Battle of Leyte Gulf...

 

[Derek Pullem]

Ties down more force structure in far northern Manchuria, to guard developmental sites? Daqing is at the northern tip along the Amur. Exposed.

They already had 300,000 in 1940, rising to 700,000 in 1941 after the Manchurian partisans had retreated into USSR. The existing force structure was more than adequate for internal security

 

[SsgtC]

And the majority of the IJN vessels that were burning the raw crude didn't have to worry about increased boiler maintenance after the Battle of Leyte Gulf...

Even if they had survived, Japan's short term war needs would override the long term maintenance needs. Japan looked at it as a necessary evil. Yeah, it was going to hurt having to overhaul so many ships after the war all set roughly the same time, but the need for increased availability of refined oil products like aviation fuel, overrode that

 

[marathag]

Communist China didn't get access to American drill bits until 1984 and still was developing the oil field from 1959 onwards.

Other bits came close, but didn't have the speed or durability.

Not even the Soviets, able to steal the data on the atomic bomb, were unable to copy these

One thing, the Patent protection ran out and then everyone could copy them at that time, one reason for the explosion in oil production across the Globe in the '50s

Howard may have been the richest man in the World at that point, but he couldn't do what Walt did with the Mouse, perpetual copyright protection

 

[marathag]

I read somewhere that the Indonesian oil was so pure you could literally just fill up the car with it. No need for a refinery

Not just there.

Crude is all kinds of hydrocarbons, from gas to sludge.
some fields with a good amount of gas, like in Oklahoma and Texas, you got what was called Natural Gas Condensate, or 'Drip'
That could run in engines that had low compression

 

[Admiral Fischer]

I imagine drilling itself would have been less of the problem for the Japanese as they planned to bore 2km-deep holes during their exploration at Fuxin, but from what I understand, more harm came from the scientific dogma that established petroleum could only be found from ocean basins, denying the existence of lacustrine petroleum basins at Daqing, Liaohe, and others.

The Japanese military was willing to defy the dominant scientific theories at the time, launching several oil explorations in Manchuria, but these efforts were kept under military confidential, limiting the access to modern measuring and surveying techniques. Their gradiometers were notably deficient for such vast and wide lands in Manchuria, and more importantly, they had no access to the seismic reflection surveying technology.

Even if these oilfields were found by the Japanese, there are limits on what they could do. I once talked about this topic back in 2017.

 

[Alamo]

Japan could also find the Liaohe oil field. IIRC, Japanese companies did prospect the area in OTL and missed it by a hundred or so meters.

The oil there is extremely heavy with a high sulfur content that is hell on refining equipment. The Japanese won't be able to crack that muck into anything lighter, at least not in a useful quantity. So, it could be used for fueling ships and some industrial purposes, but is otherwise sharply limited.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Because we actually know something about how the oil industry works ?

That’s a pitiful answer. Are you a geologist or a prospector? Answer the question? How deep is the oil?

 

[SsgtC]

The oil there is extremely heavy with a high sulfur content that is hell on refining equipment. The Japanese won't be able to crack that muck into anything lighter, at least not in a useful quantity. So, it could be used for fueling ships and some industrial purposes, but is otherwise sharply limited.

Seeing as most of Japan's oil went to the IJN to fire their boilers, that's a huge boon for them. Being able to supply their fleet from their own internal sources means all of their imports can be redirected to lighter fuels