Japan discovers Daqing oil fields in 1935 - how does it change their foreign policy?

[Johnrankins]

Even with experience US workers, it took time.
For Example, Saudi Arabia.
Zero infrastructure.
1933 Concession granted by Ibn Saud to explore for Oil
1934 Geologists from Standard Oil of California SOCAL finish survey, finding the Dammam Dome formation.
1935 first test well drilled.Dry hole.
1938 test wells finally get good returns at 4700 feet of hard rock.
1939 small diameter pipeline laid to the coast.
1941 basic Refinery can do 3000 barrel a day
1945 improved Refinery does 50,000 bbl/day
That Refinery and related pipeline work cost $50M USD to improve Ras Tanura

Yep, it took 7 years from end of survey to first refinery even with US in one of the richest oil fields on the planet during a peaceful period.. This is likely close to a best case scenario world wide. In Japans case it would be done with experts and workers with zero experience in oil in midst of a guerrilla war. If anything 10 years is optimistic. 1933<>2020!

 

[Johnrankins]

Well the OP is oil is discovered in the mid-30s, so the first 5 years of that timeline is already covered. Also Daqing doesn’t have “zero infrastructure” as the Chinese Eastern Railway passes through the area and can be exploited.

You still need to build or buy oil tanker cars for the railroad, have to build oil depots along the rail road and pipes to them. All in the midst of a war.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Yep, it took 7 years from end of survey to first refinery even with US in one of the richest oil fields on the planet during a peaceful period.. This is likely close to a best case scenario world wide. In Japans case it would be done with experts and workers with zero experience in oil in midst of a guerrilla war. If anything 10 years is optimistic. 1933<>2020!

Every countries different. It took 5 years for the Libyans.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

You still need to build or buy oil tanker cars for the railroad, have to build oil depots along the rail road and pipes to them. All in the midst of a war.

War against the Chinese? Where was the frontline by this point? Was the Japanese oil exploration a combat operation?

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Every countries different. It took 5 years for the Libyans.

During the 1960s. They also didn't had to worry about 30℃ of pour point like Daqing.

War against the Chinese? Where was the frontline by this point? Was the Japanese oil exploration a combat operation?

Prosecuting war requires materials and investments too.

 

[Admiral Fischer]

That kind of reinforces what everyone has been saying - from discovery to first oil is 3-5 years. Building a refinery is 3-7 years after recovery. The key is that you know you have a major resource after 3-5 years and may reconsider attacking the two largest powers on the planet to get more oil.

They wouldn't have bombed Pearl Harbor if it was only about getting more oil.

 

[Chris Triangle]

You still need to build or buy oil tanker cars for the railroad, have to build oil depots along the rail road and pipes to them. All in the midst of a war.

A hell of a lot easier than building tanker ships and protecting them from submarines (requiring yet more ships) though. After all, isn't each car basically some sheet metal riveted into a tube, bolted to a rail carriage and given some piping?

 

[Lee-Sensei]

During the 1960s. They also didn't had to worry about 30℃ of pour point like Daqing.

Prosecuting war requires materials and investments too.

Libya was a poorly developed back water with a miniscule economy and relatively poor infrastructure. The factors that go into oil exploration, drilling, refinement and exportation are complex. My point was never to say that it would be easy for the Japanese to find and exploit their colonies oil reserves. I’m well aware that it takes years for surveyors to look for oil and to build the infrastructure and technology to exploit a countries resources. However, I would say that a country like Japan, with its significantly larger and generally better educated population and financial resources would be better poised to do it than significantly smaller and poorer Middle Eastern countries.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Prosecuting war requires materials and investments too.

So you’re saying the industrial limit of the Japanese Empire is one or the other? They’re either able to fight the Chinese bandits (regular military opposition having ceased in ‘32) or exploit the oil fields, but not both?

How did they manage to do all that they did post-‘37 if fighting bandits in Manchuria took up all of their materials and investments?

 

[marathag]

s. Plenty of countries and companies had been doing just that for many years before 1935. It wasn’t an exclusively American industry or area of expertise.

So list another countries sub 10 year development for a new field, with 1920-40s timeframe, and for apples to apples, far from local industry.

 

[marathag]

Also Daqing doesn’t have “zero infrastructure” as the Chinese Eastern Railway passes through the area and can be exploited.

RR lines doesnt create the pipe or camp for the workers, that's extra, along with 'last mile' to truck everything from the closest railhead to the drillsite

 

[Johnrankins]

Libya was a poorly developed back water with a miniscule economy and relatively poor infrastructure. The factors that go into oil exploration, drilling, refinement and exportation are complex. My point was never to say that it would be easy for the Japanese to find and exploit their colonies oil reserves. I’m well aware that it takes years for surveyors to look for oil, to build the infrastructure and technology to exploit a countries oil reserves. I would say that a country like Japan with its significantly larger and generally better educated population and financial resources would be better poised to do it than smaller and poorer Middle Eastern countries.

It was still 30 years beforehand with 30 years less developed technology. The oil companies had plenty of money to develop the oil fields and had the tech to do so. Libyan fields weren't being exploited using 1930's tech.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

It was still 30 years beforehand with 30 years less developed technology. The oil companies had plenty of money to develop the oil fields and had the tech to do so. Libyan fields weren't being exploited using 1930's tech.

That’s pretty vague. What technology are you referring to specifically? Oil was found in Libya by Ardito Desio in the late 1930’s. Exploration stopped, because of World War 2.

 

[History Learner]

1) Established fields where the test wells have already been drilled. The Japanese knew exactly where the oil was. Until the test wells are drilled you don't know the size of the field and where the oil is located.
2)Where the pipelines were already laid. Pipelines take a long time to lay and are harder to destroy. They are often buried for a variety of reasons.
3) The land was already cleared so no time needed to be spent chopping down trees, ripping down trees etc.

For one, besides the fact I've already cited that Japan, even in 1945, was able to conduct deep well drilling on it's own we also know for a fact they regularly did test wells and surveys in Manchuria IOTL:

"First Well Stimulates Search for Oil in Manchoukuo", Far Eastern Survey, Vol. 9, No. 21 (Oct. 23, 1940), pp. 252-253

Geological surveys, started in 1938 by the Manchuria Petroleum Co. and two other mining development companies, confirmed the original discovery and found several anticlines in the Fuhsin area which indicated the presence of a large oil field. Test borings were begun in August 1939, and oil was finally struck on April 28 at a depth of about 100 meters. The extent of the new oil field is not definitely known, but apparently it is potentially important. Japanese reports not only state that further investigations have disclosed the presence of four oil-bearing strata running 100 kilometers east and west, but they also suggest that other deposits are to be found in the locality up to a depth of several thousand meters.

In the exploitation of the new field, Manchoukuo is reported to be negotiating with Japan for a supply of mining materials and for engineers, and the Japan Petroleum Co. may take a part in its development. However, the problem of who is to work the Fuhsin field is still up in the air. Three plans are said to be under consideration: first, development by the Manchuria Petroleum Co., which runs the Manchouku oil monopoly and operates an oil refinery at Dairen using imported crude oil; secondly, the formation of a new company; and thirdly, the detachment of the Fuhsin coal field from the Manchuria Coal Mining Co., and the formation of a new company for the joint exploitation of coal and iron resources. The latter seems the more logical method, for the oil strata at Fuhsin are said to be found above and below the coal seams. At Fushun, where the oil shale overlies the coal beds, both the coal mine and the oil shale plant are run by one company, the S.M.R. It is also important that the exploitation of the new oil field should not interfere with the expansion of coal production. The Fuhsin mines are the most successful of the new mines developed by the Manchuria Coal Mining Co. and are now second only to Fushun in output.

Manchuria isn't jungle either and the notion that Japan can't cut down trees within 10 years is, quite frankly, a completely unsupportable notion on it's own anyway for obvious reasons. As the above makes clear, Japan already had strong infrastructure on the ground and could build it fairly quickly on it's own; Daqing, for example, is conveniently located next to the Central Manchurian Railway making access to labor, equipment and transportation of oil quick and easy.

 

[History Learner]

There's no Sino Japanese War in 1935, there are no embargos and no sanctions. There's nothing stopping Japan from hiring the experts it needs to develop the oil fields it has discovered. (Except pride and ready cash)

Hell, U.S. oil companies were still selling equipment to the Japanese as late as 1940:

Though no plan has yet been adopted, the discovery of one oil field has stimulated the further search for oil in Manchoukuo. This year's appropriation for prospecting the Fuhsin oil field has been increased from M2 million to M5 million and several new rotary drilling machines have been ordered from the United States. A number of test borings were made last year at Dalai Nor in northwest Manchoukuo and are being continued this year. Small quantities of oil are said to have been discovered. In addition, Japanese engineers are reported to be starting "large-scale" drilling for oil at Dalai Nor in Inner Mongolia where prospects are believed to be equally as good as at Fuhsin. A number of test borings made a year ago are said to have reached oil sands at a depth of 120 meters in seven places. It is still, of course, too early to tell whether these discoveries in Manchoukuo and Inner Mongolia are even important enough to affect the Japanese oil problem in its long-term aspects, but it is probable that exploitation will be pushed as far as it is probable that exploitation will be pushed as far as possible

 

[Johnrankins]

A hell of a lot easier than building tanker ships and protecting them from submarines (requiring yet more ships) though. After all, isn't each car basically some sheet metal riveted into a tube, bolted to a rail carriage and given some piping?

That doesn't shorten the time to develop it though. Push the discovery back three years and you have something. Sure it means that the Japanese find it right away, that is just extreme luck and not ASB. By the time Japan attacks PH in OTL the first expanded or new refineries should soon be online. This changes things.

 

[marathag]

Every countries different. It took 5 years for the Libyans.

1953 from first survey permits granted by the new Kingdom, to around a dozen US and Western companies and consortiums.

ESSO was the first to hit any real oil in January 1958, and that was a measly 500bbl/d, that couldn't for itself st that flow. Then then tried in the central Siritica region, and found a real field. Libyans granted small area for concessions, so other companies moved in on that area, and found success.

ESSO did the math, and that ws going to be a profitable field, so started a 110 mile long, 30inch diameter pipeline to Marsa Brega, and built a loading terminal, for 200,000 barrels a day. First shipment was October, 1961
That was 8 years, for an American driven effort.
The other consortiums(with US companies and European) did their own terminals in the next 3 years.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

1953 from first survey permits granted by the new Kingdom, to around a dozen US and Western companies and consortiums.

ESSO was the first to hit any real oil in January 1958, and that was a measly 500bbl/d, that couldn't for itself st that flow. Then then tried in the central Siritica region, and found a real field. Libyans granted small area for concessions, so other companies moved in on that area, and found success.

ESSO did the math, and that ws going to be a profitable field, so started a 110 mile long, 30inch diameter pipeline to Marsa Brega, and built a loading terminal, for 200,000 barrels a day. First shipment was October, 1961
That was 8 years, for an American driven effort.
The other consortiums(with US companies and European) did their own terminals in the next 3 years.

I’ve already read a lot of this, but you’ve provided some more details. Can you link me to your source? I’m not doubting you. I’m just interested. I’d be remiss to point out that while the oil corporations have valuable experience and expertise, the resources at the disposal of a few corporations are miniscule compared to the resources at the disposal of a major industrialized nation with a national effort.

 

[Johnrankins]

I’ve already read a lot of this, but you’ve provided some more details. Can you link me to your source? I’m not doubting you. I’m just interested. I’d be remiss to point out that while the oil corporations have valuable experience and expertise, the resources at the disposal of a few corporations are miniscule compared to the resources at the disposal of a major industrialized nation with a national effort.

Who has zero experience in oil production. Resources aren't the problem, time and experience are. Shove the date back 3 years and you are on to something.

 

[marathag]

I’ve already read a lot of this, but you’ve provided some more details. Can you link me to your source? I’m not doubting you. I’m just interested. I’d be remiss to point out that while the oil corporations have valuable experience, the resources at the disposal of a few corporations are miniscule compared to the resources of a major industrial power.

Mosr are from notes Ive collected over the years, but if you google say ESSO Marsa Brega pipeline along with 1961, should get you some good links on that one.
But for Countries, they typically have been terrible at Oil development. PEMEX has been in slow decline, same for Venezuela. You really need that Capitalism to efficiently get new oil out of the ground at low cost. Private Oil Companies are driven by lowest cost, and that drives the technology. Back to Italy in that country.
Oil typically follows Natural Gas discoveries, and that was considered a waste product till the '50s, all burnt off with flare pipes. Anyway, Italians in Libya had been running into Natural Gas when water drilling since WWI.
But no proper Geo studies, just halfhearted stuff in the mid and late '30s
Italian Companies were shielded from foreign competitors, so they acted like Nationalized companies, didn't need to scramble, and missed huge deposits that were reachable with US Tech in the 1920s.