Japan discovers Daqing oil fields in 1935 - how does it change their foreign policy?

[Admiral Fischer]

Seeing as most of Japan's oil went to the IJN to fire their boilers, that's a huge boon for them. Being able to supply their fleet from their own internal sources means all of their imports can be redirected to lighter fuels

Which was imported from America, specifically Kettleman Hills oilfield in California. So they still are dependent to America.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Which was imported from America, specifically Kettleman Hills oilfield in California. So they still are dependent to America.

Only for around 20% of refined products. With an indigenous supply they would and could build more refining capacity

The Pacific War Online Encyclopedia: Oil

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Only for around 20% of refined products. With an indigenous supply they would and could build more refining capacity

The Pacific War Online Encyclopedia: Oil

Aside from the points I made in the 2017 post I referred, Kettleman Hills was "the source" for the said 'lighter fuels' in Japan and singlehandedly accounted for 90% of crude oil imports from America. Cut that source and Japan has to find another source to feed their gasoline and diesel consumption.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Aside from the points I made in the 2017 post I referred, Kettleman Hills was "the source" for the said 'lighter fuels' in Japan and singlehandedly accounted for 90% of crude oil imports from America. Cut that source and Japan has to find another source to feed their gasoline and diesel consumption.

Which is what this thread is all about - "Japan discovers Daqing oil fields in 1935 - how does it change their foreign policy?"

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Which is what this thread is all about - "Japan discovers Daqing oil fields in 1935 - how does it change their foreign policy?"

And it has been pointed out that Japan still would have to import crude oil to produce gasoline and diesel, Daqing or no Daqing.

I'm merely supplementing that assertion by pointing out that, in reality, the USA was the source for such imports, and therefore Japan would still be reliant to the American oil imports.

 

[Derek Pullem]

And it has been pointed out that Japan still would have to import crude oil to produce gasoline and diesel, Daqing or no Daqing.

I'm merely supplementing that assertion by pointing out that, in reality, the USA was the source for such imports, and therefore Japan would still be reliant to the American oil imports.

Why?

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Why?

What do you mean by "Why?", because I don't know where to start.

Crude oil is not all the same, its property can vary. "The Kettleman crude", as designated by the Japanese for example, had its API at 39. These were loved by the Japanese military because of its rich naphtha, octane rating at 70~75. Distilled to extract gasoline and added with Tetraethyl-lead its octane rating would reach 87. To produce 92-octane fuel higher octane elements were gathered and distilled again, with Iso-octane added to boost its octane rating.

Japan also developed hydrocracking technologies to produce 92-octane fuel, but for some reasons I am not aware yet, numbers indicate these facilities operated at low capacities. But in theory they could distill the Kettleman crude and gather its 28.4% into 87+ octane fuel and 27% into 70~80 octane fuel.

Compared to Daqing, with its API at 32: "Both Daqing and Shengli crudes are rather heavy and waxy but have low sulfur content and low gasoline yield during primary distillation. (...) but low gasoline cut is quite acceptable in China where until recently there were no private cars at all and where the demand for refined fuels is led by diesel and distillate oils."

The later part needs more context to reveal what we're talking about: "The quality of most products appears to be below international standards, with, for example, automotive gasoline octane ratings of only 66-70."

Would this be enough?

 

[Derek Pullem]

What do you mean by "Why?", because I don't know where to start.

Crude oil is not all the same, its property can vary. "The Kettleman crude", as designated by the Japanese for example, had its API at 39. These were loved by the Japanese military because of its rich naphtha, octane rating at 70~75. Distilled to extract gasoline and added with Tetraethyl-lead its octane rating would reach 87. To produce 92-octane fuel higher octane elements were gathered and distilled again, with Iso-octane added to boost its octane rating.

Japan also developed hydrocracking technologies to produce 92-octane fuel, but for some reasons I am not aware yet, numbers indicate these facilities operated at low capacities. But in theory they could distill the Kettleman crude and gather its 28.4% into 87+ octane fuel and 27% into 70~80 octane fuel.

Compared to Daqing, with its API at 32: "Both Daqing and Shengli crudes are rather heavy and waxy but have low sulfur content and low gasoline yield during primary distillation. (...) but low gasoline cut is quite acceptable in China where until recently there were no private cars at all and where the demand for refined fuels is led by diesel and distillate oils."

The later part needs more context to reveal what we're talking about: "The quality of most products appears to be below international standards, with, for example, automotive gasoline octane ratings of only 66-70."

Would this be enough?

Low gasoline cut is not necessarily a problem if your main consumers are using heavy fuel oil ie the navy. Japan and Germany faced the same problem of a shortage in high octane fuel but it's not an absolute fail, just means the Allies have an advantage. The potential volumes from Daqing would offset its slightly poorer quality. As Stalin says " Quantity has a quality of its own"

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Low gasoline cut is not necessarily a problem if your main consumers are using heavy fuel oil ie the navy. Japan and Germany faced the same problem of a shortage in high octane fuel but it's not an absolute fail, just means the Allies have an advantage. The potential volumes from Daqing would offset its slightly poorer quality. As Stalin says " Quantity has a quality of its own"

I really don't know what to tell you. Are you serious.

 

[Johnrankins]

This isn't supported by the historical record at all, as Japan rapidly restored oil production in the East Indies:

Borneo Oil Fields and Refineries Under Imperial Japanese Navy Control


Blood for Oil: The Quest for Fuel in World War II


"Japan's Oil Resources", Economic Geography, Vol. 22, No. 1 (Jan., 1946), pp. 14-23

For reference, Daqing Oil Field:

Hell, Japan even developed a 30,000 tons a month capacity of synthetic production in Manchuria too outside of conventional oil production. Even if we take the position that Japan can't, on its own, rapidly develop the oil fields why can't they bring the Americans in? Even into 1940, American oil companies were still conducting contracts with the Japanese and the very same companies were reluctant to give up their Japanese markets via sanctions.

In other words in established fields with established refineries not newly discovered fields and no new refineries. Not even close to the same thing as establishing a new field.

 

[SsgtC]

I really don't know what to tell you. Are you serious.

The thing is, if Japan is meeting it's heavy fuel oil needs from it's own internal sources, every drop it imports can be refined into the lighter fuels they need (like aviation gasoline). Compare that to OTL where every barrel imported was divided nine ways from Sunday and used for all their oil needs. Japan's 24 month reserve of OTL is now a 48-60 month reserve (and possibly more as none of that imported oil is going to the fleet or industrial uses). That gives Japan a huge boost over OTL. They no longer have to cut aviator training hours to preserve fuel for operational use. They have the fuel to build useable numbers of light tanks and armored cars. Ships won't leave port with half full bunkers on one way suicide runs. The list goes on. Obviously, they will eventually still run out. But not for significantly longer than in OTL.

 

[marathag]

But I feel that the Oil wouldn't be available in the Home Islands until the mid'40s

So what do they do from July 1941 till then?
avoid going into Indochina eliminates the embargo and asset freeze, but would the IJA do the right thing? They did that to block aid getting to the KMT
Having Oil that would be years away would not change that mindset

 

[raharris1973]

They already had 300,000 in 1940, rising to 700,000 in 1941 after the Manchurian partisans had retreated into USSR. The existing force structure was more than adequate for internal security

the concern isn't internal security, silly, it's the Soviets right over the border.

 

[Derek Pullem]

the concern isn't internal security, silly, it's the Soviets right over the border.

The point being that a few thousand partisans are unlikely to have any major impact on a critical Japanese project like the development of Daqing would be because there are >300,000 troops there anyway for other reasons. Who, in the absence of any active Soviet threat, can be deployed for internal security.

When did the manners on this forum decline btw?

 

[Derek Pullem]

I really don't know what to tell you. Are you serious.

The Kettleman crude you speak of represented about 4% of US production in 1936 and it declined thereafter. It was very high quality and prized not only by the Japanese but by every consumer seeking to make high octane gasoline. That is not to say that lower quality feedstocks could not be used but they would rely on processes such as hydrocracking and Japan just didn't have the feedstock in bulk to justify expanding its capacity. Towards the end of the war Japan was using pine root oil as a feed for hydrocracking units!

If you check this reference out http://www.fischer-tropsch.org/prim...rts/USNTMJ-200K-0391-0884 Report X-38 N-2.pdf then you will see that high quality feedstocks had a significantly higher yield of avgas quality fuels (up to 70%) but even tar yielded between 25-50%. Which is why I said quantity hasa quality all of its own - if you have 7 million tonnes per year of additional hydrocarbons, the bottleneck is not feedstock now but refinery capacity. Using technology the Japanese already understand.

It is true that Japan would struggle to meet the 95-100 Octane avgas produced by the Allies (principally USA) but so did the Germans. Japanese avgas was c. 92 octane in the early part of the war dropping to 91 or lower as supply shortages hit. Germans had their 95 octane C2 and C3 fuels but also used lower quality fuels such as B4 (87 octane)

If what you are saying is that imported American products are better I can't disagree. But from the Japanese point of view 7 million tonnes of indigenous crude production is a gamechanger when your alternatives are based on pine root oil!!!!

 

[Admiral Fischer]

The thing is, if Japan is meeting it's heavy fuel oil needs from it's own internal sources, every drop it imports can be refined into the lighter fuels they need (like aviation gasoline). Compare that to OTL where every barrel imported was divided nine ways from Sunday and used for all their oil needs. Japan's 24 month reserve of OTL is now a 48-60 month reserve (and possibly more as none of that imported oil is going to the fleet or industrial uses). That gives Japan a huge boost over OTL. They no longer have to cut aviator training hours to preserve fuel for operational use. They have the fuel to build useable numbers of light tanks and armored cars. Ships won't leave port with half full bunkers on one way suicide runs. The list goes on. Obviously, they will eventually still run out. But not for significantly longer than in OTL.

You are making more sense than "70-octane is just as good as 92-octane for aviation use, what could go possibly wrong", but as pointed out by many, it takes much capital and time before they could exploit, transport, and refine the extracted petroleum. Japan by 1935 wasn't exactly a new player at that, and I don't doubt they'll be doing their utmost to start rolling out products as soon as possible, but they still have to wait for long before actually seeing that happens. Other forumites talked about five years, ten years, but I must point out that such long and capital-extensive investments would surely have a deep impact on the Japanese military build-up, potentially hindering such. If any other schedule follows the history, by the time when the Daqing oilfield can make a difference, say 1940 or 1945, it would be to late anyway.

This problem becomes worse if it's the military who found the oil. As I noted already, the existence of oilfield in the region was denied by the scientific dogma at that time, and it was the military, with little to no regards to academic consensus, backed the historical prospecting operations in Manchuria. Now if it is these efforts, guided by the divine providence, that manage to find the Daqing oilfield, the military is certainly going to have first dip. I would imagine they wouldn't be favorable to accept foreign capital and investment in such a militarily-sensitive sector, an another factor to hamper the progress.

But that's not saying the discovery of the Daqing oilfield is going to make no difference. It doesn't make them full self-reliant, but with enough investment and time, it could reduce foreign dependence on one of the most important resource. That indeed is a huge boost to the Japanese. But my doubt is, wouldn't that make the Japanese military even more paranoia than what it was.

 

[Derek Pullem]

But Daqing changes the timetable for Japan's expansion. They can't avoid being entangled in China and the French Indochina grab is probably too easy an opportunity to pass on. But if you know you can develop your own resources to sustain the Chinese war then why is 1940 or 1945 too late. The imperative to attack the Southern Resource Area just isn't there.

Would the Allies declare war on Japan because of China and Indochina before the defeat of Germany? I don't think so. They didn't IOTL and post the defeat of Germany the appetite for another war in the USA is going to be weak.

If you believe that Japan does have a death wish to attack the Allies irrespective of their economic situation then the timetable is a problem - but I believe Daqing in 1935 would change that.

 

[Admiral Fischer]

The Kettleman crude you speak of represented about 4% of US production in 1936 and it declined thereafter. It was very high quality and prized not only by the Japanese but by every consumer seeking to make high octane gasoline. That is not to say that lower quality feedstocks could not be used but they would rely on processes such as hydrocracking and Japan just didn't have the feedstock in bulk to justify expanding its capacity. Towards the end of the war Japan was using pine root oil as a feed for hydrocracking units!

If you check this reference out http://www.fischer-tropsch.org/primary_documents/gvt_reports/USNAVY/USNTMJ Reports/USNTMJ-200K-0391-0884 Report X-38 N-2.pdf then you will see that high quality feedstocks had a significantly higher yield of avgas quality fuels (up to 70%) but even tar yielded between 25-50%. Which is why I said quantity hasa quality all of its own - if you have 7 million tonnes per year of additional hydrocarbons, the bottleneck is not feedstock now but refinery capacity. Using technology the Japanese already understand.

It is true that Japan would struggle to meet the 95-100 Octane avgas produced by the Allies (principally USA) but so did the Germans. Japanese avgas was c. 92 octane in the early part of the war dropping to 91 or lower as supply shortages hit. Germans had their 95 octane C2 and C3 fuels but also used lower quality fuels such as B4 (87 octane)

If what you are saying is that imported American products are better I can't disagree. But from the Japanese point of view 7 million tonnes of indigenous crude production is a gamechanger when your alternatives are based on pine root oil!!!!

The said 'low temperature tar' are produced in coal carbonization, it's not about refining petroleum source. You're talking about the very same process the Germans produced aviation fuel out of coal. It's not about oil. I mean actually it is, but certainly not relevant to the Daqing oilfield.

 

[Derek Pullem]

The said 'low temperature tar' are produced in coal carbonization, it's not about refining petroleum source. You're talking about the very same process the Germans produced aviation fuel out of coal. It's not about oil. I mean actually it is, but certainly not relevant to the Daqing oilfield.

So you are ignoring the table on page 11, Table 1 of the source I provided which lists avgas recovery from Sumatra Kerosene and Onomogawa gas oil? Along with more esoteric feedstocks like Soy bean oil and oil from rubber? Daqing is a valuable hydrocarbon feedstock which can be used to provide avgas and other gasoline cuts in quantity using hydrocracking technology the Japanese already had developed.

 

[History Learner]

In other words in established fields with established refineries not newly discovered fields and no new refineries. Not even close to the same thing as establishing a new field.

Established fields and refineries that were destroyed and which the Japanese had to repeatedly rebuild; you can't exactly fix something unless you know how it's supposed to operate. Likewise, I've already cited that Japan was able to, in 1945 no less, conduct deep well operations of up to 5,000 feet while likewise doing so extensively at the 1,500 to 2,000 foot range.