Japan Defeats Spain and takes Pacific Colonies

Ten out of fifteen posts on this page is yours. I strongly encourage you to try use each post more efficiently.

The purpose of alternate history is to explore plausible alternate courses for historic events. That's why we're on the board.

The purpose of this thread is to explore a specific scenario suggested by the OP, and its plausibility, with all the relevant and complex implications. That's why we're on the thread.

I believe I have contributed to both reasonably well in my posts here.

How's the defense of the motherland going?
 
The purpose of alternate history is to explore plausible alternate courses for historic events. That's why we're on the board.

The purpose of this thread is to explore a specific scenario suggested by the OP, and its plausibility, with all the relevant and complex implications. That's why we're on the thread.

I believe I have contributed to both reasonably well in my posts here.

How's the defense of the motherland going?

And that could have all been done as well has you have done of current or better with the format better arranged. Machinegunning several posts at once over a short period of time is downright pretentious, you're constantly bumping up the thread without a reason.
 
Both of you are still at it? Puñeta.

Let's get back to topic, shall we?

How's Japan's logistics in case of an invasion attempt?
 
And that could have all been done as well has you have done of current or better with the format better arranged. Machinegunning several posts at once over a short period of time is downright pretentious, you're constantly bumping up the thread without a reason.

Can't be helped, old boy. If I'd not been more-or-less on call this week, or if my technology was willing to cooperate.... Sure. It's not my norm.

In the meantime, I am thankful for any who can focus on my message over my medium.
 
Both of you are still at it? Puñeta.

Yeah, it's pretty bad, eh? We have our pride.

Let's get back to topic, shall we?

How's Japan's logistics in case of an invasion attempt?

Great or terrible, depending.

They went most of the distance to take Taiwan, after all, coming from Weihaiwei and then later the home islands. If they're doing this per the OP, they've passed the two years of active resistance in Taiwan and had seven more to plant their feet there. Coming from Taipei the distance is very limited, the only question is what the state the local port facilities were in. If they're middling, logistics will still be workable; if they're good, logistics should be excellent.

That is modeled, though, on how Japanese navy could act when all its opposition was already resting on the sea floor. So if the Spanish keep their ships in the Atlantic or have lost them all, yes, Japan's golden. But if the Spanish are smart, they can give the Japanese a very hard time. If they bring their navy close enough to be a threat to a Japanese move anywhere in the region, but prevent the Japanese from catching it out and destroying it, the Japanese navy would be left with much less freedom of action. [Taking this from war-gaming what the Spanish should have done fighting the US in OTL, actually. The principle is the same.]

If the Spanish still have a fleet, the Japanese wouldn't be able to accomplish much beyond supporting the Filipinos if they rise up. That could be enough if the Japanese can afford to convoy their fleet back and forth, leaving arms and Japanese army units behind. But if the Filipinos are loyal for some reason, even in some large part, with logistics like that Japanese victory is actually pretty difficult to accomplish. They'd have to take some risks to provoke a fleet engagement, which could fail or even backfire.
 
If the Spanish still have a fleet, the Japanese wouldn't be able to accomplish much beyond supporting the Filipinos if they rise up. That could be enough if the Japanese can afford to convoy their fleet back and forth, leaving arms and Japanese army units behind. But if the Filipinos are loyal for some reason, even in some large part, with logistics like that Japanese victory is actually pretty difficult to accomplish. They'd have to take some risks to provoke a fleet engagement, which could fail or even backfire.

I disagree with your assessment.

If the Spanish holds on to the islands until 1904, this means the locals are loyal to Spain. Spain would win any land war against Japan or USA. Spain would lose Guam, Palau and Marianas, but Luzon, Visayas would be defensible.

The Spanish Asian Navy would act in coordination with the Coastal Defense.

However, going to the OP, the OP made the wrong assumption that with a PoD of Feb 1898, the Spanish would even hold the Philippines at all until 1904. This means if PoD Feb 1898, there wont be a Japanese-Spanish War in the Philippines in 1904.
 
I disagree with your assessment.

If the Spanish holds on to the islands until 1904, this means the locals are loyal to Spain. Spain would win any land war against Japan or USA. Spain would lose Guam, Palau and Marianas, but Luzon, Visayas would be defensible.

The Spanish Asian Navy would act in coordination with the Coastal Defense.

However, going to the OP, the OP made the wrong assumption that with a PoD of Feb 1898, the Spanish would even hold the Philippines at all until 1904. This means if PoD Feb 1898, there wont be a Japanese-Spanish War in the Philippines in 1904.

I'm not sure where we disagree - I agree with pretty much everything you said. One way to do what I was getting at with the navy would be just what you describe.

I also agree that for practical purposes a 1898 POD won't get us a Spanish-Japanese War over the islands in 1904 without some truly improbable turns.

Hrm. What happens if the Spanish do lose control? The Philippines would not be in the greatest position to start a new nation. A diverse, disorganized, post-revolutionary country with no national history other than that imposed by its oppressors, sitting in a very strategic position at the historic height of colonialism. It's very probable that someone to come in to fill the gap, formally or informally. I imagine the French and Japanese would be the most interested parties, but the British might be the most likely to actually get it.
 
Hrm. What happens if the Spanish do lose control? The Philippines would not be in the greatest position to start a new nation. A diverse, disorganized, post-revolutionary country with no national history other than that imposed by its oppressors, sitting in a very strategic position at the historic height of colonialism. It's very probable that someone to come in to fill the gap, formally or informally. I imagine the French and Japanese would be the most interested parties, but the British might be the most likely to actually get it.

I dont think it is that easy to colonize or attack the Philippines without replicating the exact conditions.

The military situation in OTL Philippines was like the situation in WW2 between the USA and Britain But right after WW2, USA somehow attack Britain. Britain will most likely lose since you have US troops already in Britain landed unmolested. Ally turned enemy.

Besides even if we assume you are correct, it destroys the OPs basis which I have been saying about because you wont have a Japanese-Spanish war.
 
I dont think it is that easy to colonize or attack the Philippines without replicating the exact conditions.

Sorry, this may just be me, but I'm getting a little lost. Replicating the exact conditions of what, the US irruption?

At any rate, I wouldn't necessarily view the conquest of French Indochina as something that was very easy, but it still happened. Most of the states in the region ended up colonized, including some extremely sophisticated ones. The question is how the Philippines stand apart.

The military situation in OTL Philippines was like the situation in WW2 between the USA and Britain But right after WW2, USA somehow attack Britain. Britain will most likely lose since you have US troops already in Britain landed unmolested. Ally turned enemy.

It seems you're arguing that it would be difficult to conquer the Philippines having just fought to liberate them. I agree - I didn't suggest that. Actually I was suggesting that the Filipinos might win free of Spain, only to fall under the coerced "protection" of another power.

Besides even if we assume you are correct, it destroys the OPs basis which I have been saying about because you wont have a Japanese-Spanish war.

Indeed.
 
Hrm. What happens if the Spanish do lose control? The Philippines would not be in the greatest position to start a new nation. A diverse, disorganized, post-revolutionary country with no national history other than that imposed by its oppressors, sitting in a very strategic position at the historic height of colonialism. It's very probable that someone to come in to fill the gap, formally or informally. I imagine the French and Japanese would be the most interested parties, but the British might be the most likely to actually get it.

I'd like to dispute the idea that our national history was 'just' imposed by our oppressors. After all, they were here for centuries, and by just being here they established a nation.

But yes, being disorganized, in a strategic position, and struggling to gain our independence at the height of European colonialism does weigh against us.

The British may not like having a large Catholic nation, though.
 
If the Philippines had won its independence from Spain without intervention from another power, it's possible it would have turned into another politically unstable post-Spanish banana republic ruled by a strongman. There were indications in that direction, primarily in how the eventual leader of the revolution, Aguinaldo, had his more popular rival executed under the flimsiest of charges. Plus he supported the Japanese after they invaded the Philippines during WW2, showing that he was more of an opportunist than an ideologue. And he wasn't above rigging a few ballot boxes.

How well such a state could have stood against a strong foreign power, especially early on in its history, is questionable. But what's so great about the country that it would be worth the effort? The US had plans regarding making the place a way station for trade with China but did they ever come to fruition?
 
Actually, it is more likely for the revolutionaries to kill Aguinaldo because he sold the revolution and he was considered as a Spy at the beginning so he sold the revolution to the Spanish and later the Americans...the real question is what will happen if Aguinaldo gets killed by his fellow revolutionaries for having Andres Bonifacio killed..which I think will happen if he does not seek help from the Americans and Spanish..
 
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