Japan conquers China

So IOTL nomadic peoples like the Manchus and Mongols were able to conquer China and make dynasties. Is there any possibility that the Japanese could make use of an extended warring period in China's history and, with Korea as a foothold, take and hold on to China for a few generations or more?

This thread inspired by WW2. ;)
 
I think the trouble is more that for most of it's history Japan was very much a backwater and a bit too far away from China's centre of gravity.

The Manchus were just across the border and were able to seize the perfect moment to bring the Ming down in a series of campaigns. An invasion from Japan is a much more complex and difficult situation.
 
Wasn't there a time when the Japanese pirates were running around up and down the Chinese coast and generally messing shit up? IIRC that was indeed during the Sengoku Jidai (which I know like nothing about), but perhaps with some more luck, the Japanese could've gotten their act together, taken Korea, and exercised naval superiority over China, preferably when it was in a fractured state. What would that take and how possible was it?
 
I think a lot of those pirates, called Wako, were actually Chinese. The word itself I think derives from the Chinese Wokou. In any case, China wasn't really in a fractured state during the Sengoku period, quite the opposite actually. The Ming certainly beat them around in Korea when Toyotomi Hideyoshi invaded. The Japanese navy couldn't even take on its Korean counterpart.
 
Then does that mean that the timing of "Warring Periods" in the two countries was simply inopportune, or that it was truly and totally unfeasible for Japan to even dream of taking China and making a dynasty there?
 
In the 1600's the Ming started screwing up and being all crappy, and they ended up getting conquered by Manchus. But I'm not sure if Japan couldn't done anything at that time. And any period before the Sengoku Jidai the Japanese were simply to backwards to win any wars with China. Until then they fought in rather unorganized fashion, and battles still had an element of formality and stuff that certainly didn't help against Mongols. The last time Japan tried fighting outsiders before Toyotomi's invasion of Korea was when they tried to invade Korea (with some Korean allies) in the 600's, only to be wiped out by the Tang and their Korean ally.
 
Interesting. Could the Japanese perhaps been more successful in their ventures against Korea, gain some fighting experience there, and then invade the Middle Kingdom when the time was ripe?
 
Well, I'm pretty sure Toyotomi Hideyoshi invaded Korea because he saw it as the stepping stone to China. From there, he apparently wanted to conquer the world. If there's a man who is going to conquer China pre-1900, it would probably be him.

The idea could possibly be that Toyotomi decides to build up his navy and then invade Korea. It could be combined with a lazier Ming Wanli. For the last two decades of his reign, he refused to meet with ministers completely. In this world, he might refuse to participate in affairs of government from the start. After Toyotomi conquers Korea, he would predictably move on to China, which might not resist effectively given the corruption in government.

Still China is huge, and even when the Emperors are terrible, their ministers can still be effective. Toyotomi would probably get bogged down eventually, and probably die before he can see to the project's completion, at which point Japan goes back to civil war.
 
Ah, that was the kind of answer I was looking for. So basically, Japan *might* have been able to subdue China but probably not hold on to it effectively.
I think it would be interesting to see how it would affect the idea of the Sinosphere in terms of cultural/imperial unity in future generations.
 
Regarding the Wokou: Most of the time, the local officials in Zhejiang and Fujian, where the Wokou raided, were notoriously corrupt. The Japanese pirates were only permitted to loot when the local governor got a cut. If the Chinese actually cared to stop the Wokou, then there would have been no raids on the Chinese coast.
 
Well, I'm pretty sure Toyotomi Hideyoshi invaded Korea because he saw it as the stepping stone to China. From there, he apparently wanted to conquer the world. If there's a man who is going to conquer China pre-1900, it would probably be him.

The idea could possibly be that Toyotomi decides to build up his navy and then invade Korea. It could be combined with a lazier Ming Wanli. For the last two decades of his reign, he refused to meet with ministers completely. In this world, he might refuse to participate in affairs of government from the start. After Toyotomi conquers Korea, he would predictably move on to China, which might not resist effectively given the corruption in government.

Still China is huge, and even when the Emperors are terrible, their ministers can still be effective. Toyotomi would probably get bogged down eventually, and probably die before he can see to the project's completion, at which point Japan goes back to civil war.

Dorgon did NOT get bogged down. Nor did the Manchu fall to civil war after Dorgon was disgraced. Nor were the Southern Ming officials any good.

The OTL Toyotomi campaign was 1592...1598. 6 years.
On 18th May 1644, the Qing were firmly outside Great Wall of Shanhaiguan Pass, Beijing was held by Chinese Shun Dynasty and Wu Sangui was loyal to Ming Dynasty.
By 5th of June, 1544, Beijing was in Qing hands.
In 1645, the Qing wiped out both Shun Dynasty and Southern Ming - Nanjing regime seems to have collapsed in less than a month after Qing attacked in earnest. In October 1646, Fuzhou was captured while within January 1647, Qing conquered both Southern Ming holdouts in Guangzhou and Daxi dynasty of Sichuan.

In short, by May 1647, no one resisted Qing in China save Southern Ming Yongli emperor chased into mountains of Southwestern China, and Koxinga who was chased into offshore isles and could not hold mainland major cities.

Note that the Qing peace was based on the submission of 3 Feudatories. Wu Sangui did rebel in 1673, but the Qing managed to pacify the Feudatories by 1681 or so, and Taiwan by 1683. And hold China for 200+ years.

Qing had conquered basically whole China in under 3 years, without any major defeats or serious and sustained resistance.

Qing approached overland from Northeast with cavalry forces. So had the Wuhu in 316, so had the Jurchen in 1127, so had the Mongols in 1211.

Southern Jin and later Southern Dynasties held out against the barbarians for nearly 3 centuries. Southern Song stopped the Jurchen for over a century, and Mongols for over 40 years. Southern Ming, as noted, collapsed in a matter of months, maybe less.

Japanese did have horses, as did Chinese, but they did not have mass Manchu and Mongol cavalry as Qing did. On the other hand, Japan had a navy from the start. Which parts of China would Japan held first, where would they chase holdouts and how would they deal with them?

How could you butterfly a successful Japanese conquest and long term holding of whole China?

1) Get Ming to collapse earlier - so that Toyotomi Hideyoshi meets a weaker adversary, like Qing did in OTL 1644
2) Get Japan to try later, on a more opportune time - or try again. Somehow persuade Tokugawa Shogunate to invade China - or get another regime in Japan, like Toyotomi restored after 1614, or Shosetsu after 1651, which makes changes in foreign policy.
Which of these are probable?
 
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Hm...it seems that whenever a smaller nation speedily conquers a larger one in ancient times it always does it with massed cavalry. If Japan does not have the tradition for these highly mobile forces it may be impossible to secure a fast victory and conquest.

Here's an idea: Sometime around 1500-1600, the Ming begins to collapse. It is in this time that a Japanese leader decides to take Korea, and, without Chinese support, Korea does indeed fall, and is incorporated into said Japanese monarch's empire. Pleased with the results and seeing the Ming dynasty in a state of decline, he sets his eyes on China. The Ming is at this time fraught with civil war and the Manchus are looming in the north. The Manchus attack, and when the Japanese get word of this they launch a seaborne invasion of the Chinese coast. The southern Ming administrators, seeing their dynasty crushed, take up sides and the Japanese ultimately win out, with armies marching into Beijing and driving the Manchus back to their homeland. From the coast on in China falls under Japanese domination and the monarch moves his throne to Beijing to become the head of the new dynasty.

The problem I see with this is that the Japanese were overstretched as it was by their Korean venture, and would probably not have much manpower to conquer China with. In this way, the only way they could've won is by shock value, i.e. coordinating a multi-pronged conquest of the coast that, coinciding with the Manchu invasion, leads through some good diplomacy and luck to the remaining Ming officials and military officers being compelled to join the Japanese. But the issue here is that the Manchus have to be seen as even worse than the Japanese, and the Japanese historically were no good in terms of forging amiable relations with the locals.
 
Dorgon did NOT get bogged down. Nor did the Manchu fall to civil war after Dorgon was disgraced. Nor were the Southern Ming officials any good.

The OTL Toyotomi campaign was 1592...1598. 6 years.
On 18th May 1644, the Qing were firmly outside Great Wall of Shanhaiguan Pass, Beijing was held by Chinese Shun Dynasty and Wu Sangui was loyal to Ming Dynasty.
By 5th of June, 1544, Beijing was in Qing hands.
In 1645, the Qing wiped out both Shun Dynasty and Southern Ming - Nanjing regime seems to have collapsed in less than a month after Qing attacked in earnest. In October 1646, Fuzhou was captured while within January 1647, Qing conquered both Southern Ming holdouts in Guangzhou and Daxi dynasty of Sichuan.

In short, by May 1647, no one resisted Qing in China save Southern Ming Yongli emperor chased into mountains of Southwestern China, and Koxinga who was chased into offshore isles and could not hold mainland major cities.

Note that the Qing peace was based on the submission of 3 Feudatories. Wu Sangui did rebel in 1673, but the Qing managed to pacify the Feudatories by 1681 or so, and Taiwan by 1683. And hold China for 200+ years.

Qing had conquered basically whole China in under 3 years, without any major defeats or serious and sustained resistance.

Qing approached overland from Northeast with cavalry forces. So had the Wuhu in 316, so had the Jurchen in 1127, so had the Mongols in 1211.

Southern Jin and later Southern Dynasties held out against the barbarians for nearly 3 centuries. Southern Song stopped the Jurchen for over a century, and Mongols for over 40 years. Southern Ming, as noted, collapsed in a matter of months, maybe less.

Japanese did have horses, as did Chinese, but they did not have mass Manchu and Mongol cavalry as Qing did. On the other hand, Japan had a navy from the start. Which parts of China would Japan held first, where would they chase holdouts and how would they deal with them?

How could you butterfly a successful Japanese conquest and long term holding of whole China?

1) Get Ming to collapse earlier - so that Toyotomi Hideyoshi meets a weaker adversary, like Qing did in OTL 1644
2) Get Japan to try later, on a more opportune time - or try again. Somehow persuade Tokugawa Shogunate to invade China - or get another regime in Japan, like Toyotomi restored after 1614, or Shosetsu after 1651, which makes changes in foreign policy.
Which of these are probable?

Well, I would argue that they didn't consolidate power until the defeat of the Three Feudatories in 1681, which took them eight years, but that is besides the point. Dorgon did not get bogged down. So what? He operated fifty years after Hideyoshi did. Yes, the Qing were the only legitimate dynasty by the time the Southern Ming fell, but the Three Feudatories were largely autonomous and near independent. Plus, one of the reasons why the Ming fell so easily was due to the costs incurred fighting Hideyoshi in Korea. The Qing conquest was half a century later. They're not exactly comparable.

I was under the impression that most of Hideyoshi's army was based on infantrymen, not cavalry, and it's harder to invade a country when your home base is in Eastern Japan and not Manchuria, which is obviously much closer to Beijing and China. So I think Hideyoshi would still be more likely to get bogged down. I had the impression that Hideyoshi was too arrogant to bother working with local defectors, the way the Qing worked with Wu Sangui and others, so you're basing your idea that the Japanese would be willing to conquer China in the same way the Qing did. Hideyoshi did have a navy, but as shown by its performance historically, it wasn't that great.

So I stand by my assertion that Hideyoshi would get bogged down, but that he's still the most likely candidate. I don't think you'll get a Ming collapse too much earlier than 1592, so I would go for the second idea, about Japan trying again. Maybe, for a different tack, Japan does conquer Korea during Hideyoshi's invasions. Then the Ming collapses, and then Japan moves in.
 
Hm...it seems that whenever a smaller nation speedily conquers a larger one in ancient times it always does it with massed cavalry. If Japan does not have the tradition for these highly mobile forces it may be impossible to secure a fast victory and conquest.

Here's an idea: Sometime around 1500-1600, the Ming begins to collapse. It is in this time that a Japanese leader decides to take Korea, and, without Chinese support, Korea does indeed fall, and is incorporated into said Japanese monarch's empire. Pleased with the results and seeing the Ming dynasty in a state of decline, he sets his eyes on China. The Ming is at this time fraught with civil war and the Manchus are looming in the north. The Manchus attack, and when the Japanese get word of this they launch a seaborne invasion of the Chinese coast. The southern Ming administrators, seeing their dynasty crushed, take up sides and the Japanese ultimately win out, with armies marching into Beijing and driving the Manchus back to their homeland. From the coast on in China falls under Japanese domination and the monarch moves his throne to Beijing to become the head of the new dynasty.

The problem I see with this is that the Japanese were overstretched as it was by their Korean venture, and would probably not have much manpower to conquer China with. In this way, the only way they could've won is by shock value, i.e. coordinating a multi-pronged conquest of the coast that, coinciding with the Manchu invasion, leads through some good diplomacy and luck to the remaining Ming officials and military officers being compelled to join the Japanese. But the issue here is that the Manchus have to be seen as even worse than the Japanese, and the Japanese historically were no good in terms of forging amiable relations with the locals.

So, in other words, it's like with Wu Sangui caught between the Shun and the Qing, only in this situation, the Ming, facing collapse, throw in their lot with the Japanese in order to fight the Manchus? How did Koxinga's navy fare historically compared to the Japanese one?
 
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