Japan confronted 1931

If the US and the League applied serious sanctions against Japan for the aggression against Manchuria would Japan have gone to war with the rest of the World or backed down?
 
Most likely the Japanese aggression stops. Then and there. It might even butterfly away subsequent Italian aggression on Abyssinia and Italy might end up playing ball with UK and France and confront Hitler when he attempts Anschluss.

However, bear in mind that was the time when the Great Depression had the most devastating effect and it was not a random event that the Japanese aggression was not effectively confronted. Lytton mission undoubtedly proved it was an act of aggression.
 
The other interesting aspect of this is that it kills the popularity of the Militarists. Just like Herr Hitler got an image boost after the re-occupation of the Rhineland, this seeming display of leadership--the idea that they got the other powers to "back down"--improved the Militarists' image. Additionally, seizing the resources of Manchuria did, in fact, help the Imperial Japanese economy during the Great Depression.

If an embargo is established instead, it is the complete opposite. Instead of helping the Japanese economy, it cuts them off from what little international trade they have left post-Hawley-Smoot. Instead of looking like bold leaders, the Militarists look like bunglers. If they try any of their insurrections after this, I'm sure they get clamped down upon, and hard.

Sadly, I don't think there existed the will to do this.
 
The other interesting aspect of this is that it kills the popularity of the Militarists. ... Instead of looking like bold leaders, the Militarists look like bunglers. If they try any of their insurrections after this, I'm sure they get clamped down upon, and hard.
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Which brings us around to any of many 'no Pacific War' threads ;)
 
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