Japan bypasses the oil embargo.

A resource development approach to building an economy as anathema to the militarists of Nazi Germany and Japan and even if Daqing was discovered I would imagine the indignity of the Dutch and British exploiting oil reserves which naturally fell within Japan's sphere of influence would have made it hard for the drillers to get the resources to develop Manchurian oil from scratch.

A similar issue affecting Germany with the Schoonebeek oil field. An all out effort to discover, delineate and develop the oil field could have been made in the late 20's and 30's but resources were not available either due to the recession or the need to rearm.
 
A resource development approach to building an economy as anathema to the militarists of Nazi Germany and Japan and even if Daqing was discovered I would imagine the indignity of the Dutch and British exploiting oil reserves which naturally fell within Japan's sphere of influence would have made it hard for the drillers to get the resources to develop Manchurian oil from scratch.

A similar issue affecting Germany with the Schoonebeek oil field. An all out effort to discover, delineate and develop the oil field could have been made in the late 20's and 30's but resources were not available either due to the recession or the need to rearm.

What? The Japanese economies were not run by the Military alone in the 20is and 30is. Its Zaibatsu time and its Zaibatsu’s that decide what investments there should be inside Imperial territory. The government take up taxes on said Zaibatsu’s and divide these resources to either the military or the navy. Period. As long as the government is still civilian the Japanese economies were fairly “sane” for its time in choosing investments and developing resources and stayed more or less “normal” until the embargo and the start of the war. Not even the German economy were a insane command economy until after the war started.

As far as I know any resources that were profitable to develop were developed inside this time period by both Germany and Japan. So if these mentioned resources were known and available they would have been developed given the need of autarky and improved trade balance in the 20is and 30is for both Germany and Japan.
 
What? The Japanese economies were not run by the Military alone in the 20is and 30is. Its Zaibatsu time and its Zaibatsu’s that decide what investments there should be inside Imperial territory. The government take up taxes on said Zaibatsu’s and divide these resources to either the military or the navy. Period. As long as the government is still civilian the Japanese economies were fairly “sane” for its time in choosing investments and developing resources and stayed more or less “normal” until the embargo and the start of the war. Not even the German economy were a insane command economy until after the war started.

As far as I know any resources that were profitable to develop were developed inside this time period by both Germany and Japan. So if these mentioned resources were known and available they would have been developed given the need of autarky and improved trade balance in the 20is and 30is for both Germany and Japan.

I agree - which is why I said the militarists of Nazi Germany and Japan. Which kind of confines the issue of militarism to post 1933 for Germany and post 1937 for Japan. Prior to that it would be capital that would constrain big infrastructure / resource projects. Post that it would be prestige projects (mostly military but autobahns do spring to mind).

The economies may not have been insane post 1933 / 1937 but they became increasingly distorted in their priorities.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
So what are the trade offs for developing a petroleum industry from scratch. There is a finite resource available to the Japanese Govt. US oil will always undercut you on the world market so there is no external revenue, in fact given the relative costs its a greater drain on own resources than importing from the USA.

Can you cut back on fuel useage? all those tanks and trucks and planes in use in China, all the supplies being moved from Japan to the war front. A fleet swinging at anchor is a fleet whose skills are deteriorating.

Not saying it can't be done but that there are opportunity costs to this course of action. Whats the trade off - couple of CV? couple of divisions - the head of the minister that agrees to this?

And if the embargo proves ineffective whats the US next move?

The trade off is not that bad. Shipyard and Shipyard workers are not close subsitutes for oilmen. Sometimes people just make dumb decisions. Likely the cost saving from not buying foreign oil makes up for the development costs. And it does not have to be all or nothing. Japan can still import a lot of oil, as long Daqing covers most military needs under wise usage rules, it takes away a lot of the pressure. Now the actual sacrifice varies.

1) Cut of oil produced. Normally 50/50 split back then with Texas land men. They provide the capital and drill field. Likely do refinery. Costs will be paying 1 USD per barrel for half the oil produced. So Japan saves 50 cents on dollar under this plan, but has to swallow a little pride. It is how Saudi got going. How Italy would have gotten going until WW2 intervened.

2) Develop locally. You can squander almost unlimited money looking for oil (Wildcating), but if we assume the field has been found, then it goes down a lot. Well under 1 USD per barrel, so again some cost savings. Oil is a lot like gold. If you have found the gold, you can find a way to develop at profit.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Found this earlier discussion
The ability of the Japanese to get oil out of the Daqing has been gone over in detail,
The debunking of the Japanese being able to get at the Daqing Oil was debunked and counter-debunked. check this out from the DaleCoz Post number 64 is were the discussions got real fun.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=175545&page=4

Final answer I think The Texas deep drilling ability that someone on board quoted ( an he was an expert on that ) was debunked As examples of earlier deep drilling could get at the Daqing Oil but it will be massive effort to exploit and take 4-5 years at least to come into full effect.
 
I agree - which is why I said the militarists of Nazi Germany and Japan. Which kind of confines the issue of militarism to post 1933 for Germany and post 1937 for Japan. Prior to that it would be capital that would constrain big infrastructure / resource projects. Post that it would be prestige projects (mostly military but autobahns do spring to mind).

The economies may not have been insane post 1933 / 1937 but they became increasingly distorted in their priorities.

Ok sorry let me bee a bit more specific. NSDP Germany were not a born commando economy but did a long period of transition from the oligarchy state capitalism it were under Weimar republic to a fascist economy where big business and government were one and the same in 1939. The war changed all of that to be a command economy in service for total war. These economical types were the same as we saw in Italy, in Spain, in Hungary and in Bulgaria during this time. There were not a cut out between military Keynesianism and development of resources but rather a balance were struck. Some fascist countries strived for autarky; Italy is the foremost one, but not Germany. So no uneconomical (for big business and the NSDP party officials) prospecting was done in Germany. Hitler had the vision that German self sufficiency would be achieved through extermination war whit USSR and not by developing German proper. As the war dragged out in time it became clear the resources for the war were better gained through conquest and plunder than investments because the timeframe for return were so long for these kind of investments.

Imperial Japanese economy is a whole other beast as it is more feudal than one would think possible in an industrialized society. Some big families/clans that had developed a specialty in trade and industry had founded the Zaibatsu’s that’s something of a cross between a guild and a trust. Their power came both from family/clan honor, economical power and positions whit in military, navy and civil government. During the whole war 1936-1941 their actions were not solely guided by improving their powers and not a total war need for Japan. The war whits USA were aimed to break the trade blockade USA held over Japan. The war planner new they could not out produce USA and did not even try. They made for the Dutch East Indies oil out necessity to keep the fleet in operations and newer coordinated their industrial efforts enough before it got boomed into the Stone Age. There were hardly any total war efforts (in the European scale) into their economy other than the natural trust streamlining of production made by the Zaibatsu’s. One can say the lack of investments in anything in Japan during 42-45 steams from them fighting so much out if their weight class and loosing badly.
 
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