Japan booby trapped Dec 41 Spring 42 What happens in Europe

I do not think it is ASB to imagine US intelligence services briefing FDR or likely Japanese aggression early in 1941 and by November the US leadership correctly guessing that there will be a 'surprise attack'.

With luck Japan's attacking planes could have suffered heavy casualties. Plus the Japanese fleet might have been located and US Carriers have hit it hard.

I am less sure about the Phillipines and indeed Hong Kong and Malaya/ Singapore.

However it is conceivable that Japan would have had to seek terms.

1) Does Hitler still declare War?

2) How much US force is available against Hitler?
 
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The e-book, Pearl Harbor, the in-flight battle, tells what might have happened if Kimmel and Short, had the necessary intelligence. It's an alternate history book by Richard Peters.
 
My own thoughts about such a scenario:

If the US did in fact successfully "lure" Japan into an ill-fated attack on Pearl Harbor, a resounding US victory with negligible US losses would probably require the US battleships to vacate the harbor several days in advance and head east to avoid any contact with Japanese, while all available US carriers and submarines were mustered to intercept and surprise the Japanese fleet while their initial strike at the empty and well-defended harbor was underway. In that case, US victory in Hawaii might be total.

Presumably the early successful Japanese operations against the British and Americans in the western pacific would still occur since these did not require the Pearl Harbor striking force. However, Japan would be at a significant disadvantage very soon when full US fleet exerts its dominance. Such a disaster might lead to the fall of the Japanese government and reduce the influence of the IJN on policy.

It's hard to imagine how this would play, but if Japan could bring itself to present a humiliating "oops we didn't mean it" peace offer to the Anglo-Americans on the basis of a claim that the war was engineered by "rogue" internal forces who acted without authority and have been removed from power and will be disciplined, they might get away with an armistice based on a full Japanese withdrawal to its prewar holdings, restitution for materiel and manpower losses suffered by the Allies, abandonment of Indochina and a stand down of new hostilities in China. Since there would be no "dastardly attack" in Hawaii and Anglo-American casualties would be relatively light, it is possible that the Americans might accept such an armistice, especially if things were brewing in Europe.

I doubt that Germany would declare war on the US once the Japanese failure at Pearl Harbor became clear, so the question would be what would ultimately justify a US declaration of war in the absence of a clear causus belli. Most likely the undeclared US naval war against German U-boats would eventually provide this sometime in 1942.

Speaking of Declarations of War, if the US essentially secretly planned this ambush and struck at the Japanese fleet before or as the Pearl Harbor attack was underway, would there even necessarily be a US declaration of War on Japan? It possible that something akin to the modern congressional "authorizations" would happen instead...an authorization for the Administration to conduct military operations against Japan short of a full DoW?
 
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Speaking of Declarations of War, if the US essentially secretly planned this ambush and struck at the Japanese fleet before or as the Pearl Harbor attack was underway, would there even necessarily be a US declaration of War on Japan? It possible that something akin to the modern congressional "authorizations" would happen instead...an authorization for the Administration to conduct military operations against Japan short of a full DoW?

That was already in place. US military forces in the Pacific had been ordered to consider any Japanese military forces in sight hostile & were authorized to attack them. This was akin to the 'shoot on sight' orders to the USN in the Atlantic that had it chasing Axis submarines & patrolling for surface raiders.
 
All hell breaks loose in the Pacific and a Japanese carrier strike force is found thousands of miles from home and attacked (and we'll even say mauled-though by utterly inexperienced US forces..? I dunno). It obviously had to have set sail well before anything else happened. US sailors and airmen are dead and wounded. A DOW is coming pretty much on schedule as before. And that means all the OTL considerations for Lend-Lease, etc. Hitler will probably DOW as OTL, too. I really don't see too much changing in Europe, tbh.
 
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I don't think things will be quite that bad. For one thing, Japan will be mauled over Oahu (they won't know their cover's blown until after they've committed). For another, hitting a moving ship at sea is easier said than done.
 
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