This is my first post on this forum. As a long time student of military history I have always been intrigued by this scenario. Anyone have any thoughts? Please share.
Fall 1941 - Japan enacts it's "Southern Plan" favored by the IJN. However, wishing to avoid war with the USA at all costs, Japan strikes ONLY British & Dutch territories of Malaya, Hong Kong, Java, Sumatra, Borneo...etc. Although tempted to attack US possessions, particularly the Phillipines, Japan strictly respects US neutrality and strictly avoids any overt act of war towards the US - putting the burden of US involvement in the war solely on the FDR administration. Given US public opinion in 1941, there was no way the country was prepared to go to war against Japan and spill American blood to protect British & Dutch colonial interests. No Pearl Harbor - No US declaration of war. FDR would have had no public enthusiasm, or political support for getting into to the war.
IMO, the Japanese war cabinet grossly overestimated the United States's ability to interfere with their "Southern Plan" militarily, while at the same time, underestimating the value of the fact that US public opinion was largely pro-isolationist in 1941. While most of the public sympathized with Britain, China, & Russia, there is a huge difference between "sympathy" and wishing to actively go to war for them. Had the Japanese avoided attacking Pearl Harbor, Phillipines, and other US holdings, they could have avoided war with the US in 1941 and been free to further their expansion into the Southwest Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and after consolidating these gains, could have even attempted an invasion of Austrailia.
Any thoughts?
Fall 1941 - Japan enacts it's "Southern Plan" favored by the IJN. However, wishing to avoid war with the USA at all costs, Japan strikes ONLY British & Dutch territories of Malaya, Hong Kong, Java, Sumatra, Borneo...etc. Although tempted to attack US possessions, particularly the Phillipines, Japan strictly respects US neutrality and strictly avoids any overt act of war towards the US - putting the burden of US involvement in the war solely on the FDR administration. Given US public opinion in 1941, there was no way the country was prepared to go to war against Japan and spill American blood to protect British & Dutch colonial interests. No Pearl Harbor - No US declaration of war. FDR would have had no public enthusiasm, or political support for getting into to the war.
IMO, the Japanese war cabinet grossly overestimated the United States's ability to interfere with their "Southern Plan" militarily, while at the same time, underestimating the value of the fact that US public opinion was largely pro-isolationist in 1941. While most of the public sympathized with Britain, China, & Russia, there is a huge difference between "sympathy" and wishing to actively go to war for them. Had the Japanese avoided attacking Pearl Harbor, Phillipines, and other US holdings, they could have avoided war with the US in 1941 and been free to further their expansion into the Southwest Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and after consolidating these gains, could have even attempted an invasion of Austrailia.
Any thoughts?