If you constantly have to imagine numerous factors turning in a country’s favor to achieve a certain historical outcome then it ceases to be actual discussion and turns into fantasy (which we have the ASB forum for).
Japan attacks somewhere else other than Pearl Harbor?
- Thread starter Starforce
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BlackDragon98
Banned
There was active trade between Germany and China before the war.
Maybe a ships returning from Hamburg that gets seized by the IJN?
IJN might conceal the identity of the ship or give it a new one, temporarily.
Then use the old Chinese identity for the raid.
McPherson
Banned
The RTL evidence is that US customs inspectors were very good. No successful penetration after a 1936 incident alerted ONI that the IJN was after US military secrets. That would be San Francisco, There was the To Organization but it was rolled up.
The IJN could have conducted the attack it had always wanted to, and attack the IJA.
McPherson
Banned
USS Ward did raise the alarm. at 6.37.00 local time. It was a command foul up that lasted 1 hour 20 minutes that followed which can be attributed to PACFLT staff incompetence.
A successful attack on the Panama would be a coin toss at best, even just blowing up some locks. But an unsuccessful attack that gets Americans chasing their tails is not implausible, especially if it wasn't Japanese Troops but the Revenge of Sandino. Find someone who looks like Sandino's son, supply rifles and TNT and the plans of the canal, and get him to lead the brave people of Nicaragua and Panama (a rifle battalion or so at least) against the hated gringo and his morphine addicts in the name of Indigenismo and the Purple Gang.
I would like to point out that the locks on the canal are big. Wrecking them to the extent that they are unusable for a lengthy amount of time is easier said than done. It would take more than a few sticks of dynamite to pull off. Not impossible but far from a walk in the park.
Yes, very likely the attempt I describe would fail and leave dead soldiers next to the dollies of TNT they were pushing. And then the petty officiousness of the American military would begin Operation Overreaction to infuriate every Spanish American in the hemisphere. Any given success in the attack would increase the overreaction.
nbcman
Donor
So a ship that fled or otherwise avoided capture during the Japanese invasion (ship not in Japanese possession) was going to be used by the Japanese to attack the Panama Canal? Something doesn't seem right there...
BlackDragon98
Banned
Japan attacks somewhere else other than Pearl Harbor?
Let's imagine a larger and more prepared force for the Panama Canal. If you constantly have to imagine numerous factors turning in a country’s favor to achieve a certain historical outcome then it ceases to be actual discussion and turns into fantasy (which we have the ASB forum for).
www.alternatehistory.com
nbcman
Donor
I understand what thread we are in as well as the forum we are in that requires plausibility instead of a fantasy scenario of a Japanese espionage attack of the Panama Canal in presumably late 1941.
BlackDragon98
Banned
I presume that the attack on the Normandie docks should have failed.
But they didn't.
marathag
Banned
And 'disable the locks' is easier said, than done. It's not just lone gate, each 'lock' has six leaves total, the length of the traversing ship determined which leaves were used. Each one is the weight of a Destroyer.
And even if all were damaged so could not be closed, the US had built mobile Cofferdams to seal things off, if needed.
Next a 'Lock' had two lanes, you would have to disable both lanes.
Realistically, the Japanese could only attack the Locks in the Pacific side, it had three flights in two seperate Lock complexes. Downside was most of the defensive works are on this side, and is close to Panama City, so you really can't sneak in this way, too many people
nbcman
Donor
Assuming the Germans were guarding the approaches to the docks at St Nazaire as diligently as the US was guarding the Panama canal for multiple decades, that the locks are as easily accessible from the ocean as compared to where the actual Pacific locks are located, and that the UK launched the attack from Durban South Africa instead of from Falmouth.
BlackDragon98
Banned
Maybe the Japanese could attack and occupy Dutch Harbor, take over Elmensdorf AFB and use it to launch bombing raids against Seattle and Vancouver?
They did invade the Aleutian OTL but occupied a couple worthless islands instead.
They did invade the Aleutian OTL but occupied a couple worthless islands instead.
Barry Bull
Donor
Which serve no military purpose but angering the Americans and Canadians.
And none of the Japanese bombers available in WWII had the range to do the 2324 km trip between Seattle and Elmensdorf AFB.
How many major naval victories did the British have against Imperial Japan during WW2? Now compare with the loss of Prince of Wales and Repulse, the destruction of the ABDA fleet and invasion of the Dutch East Indies, and the way Somerville ran away from the Indian Ocean raid and still managed to lose ships. Oh yes: and as another poster mentioned, the Imperial Japanese managed to attack British shipping, at one point, as far away as Madagascar - fortunately for the British they were able to scrape together enough force with the help of South Africa to flip Madagascar over to the Free French before Imperial Japan could establish an outpost there to permanently operate from.
Now compare that with the regular beatings that the USN regularly handed out to the Imperial Japanese, once the USA got its act together and engaged brains and employed decent commanders.
The British managed to run a major submarine (and air) campaign in the Mediterranean against Axis shipping to North Africa, and to play 'incapacitate one another's battleships' quite well with the Italians. (The British raided Taranto with aircraft; the Italians raided Alexandria with frogmen.) And it took them a lot of the war, and American help, but they eventually managed to just about get on top of the German submarine problem.
But the British were also driven out of the Pacific and even at one point the Indian Ocean by Imperial Japan, and didn't come back until the USN had well and truly broken the IJN.
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Barry Bull
Donor
The USN did not participate in surface and aerial actions in Atlantic until 1941 and in the Med until 1942. The blunt of the fighting in these area was carried by RN carrier and surface fleet.