Japan attacks France/Netherlands/UK Spring 1940

Interested in the forum’s thoughts about the possibility of Japan joining the Axis earlier and going to war with France, the Netherlands, and the UK on or around the start of the Battle of France. Would America intervene? Would this be enough for the UK to through in the towel?
 

Deleted member 1487

The US wasn't in a position to intervene, but it would certainly make US intervention a lot more likely down the road. At very least Japan would get embargoed and the US would go to their war prep much sooner; question is whether that interferes with British Cash and Carry in 1940.
 

Deleted member 9338

US would be involved very soon as there was to great a chance of a naval accident in the South China Sea
 

Ian_W

Banned
The US wasn't in a position to intervene, but it would certainly make US intervention a lot more likely down the road. At very least Japan would get embargoed and the US would go to their war prep much sooner; question is whether that interferes with British Cash and Carry in 1940.

Bullshit the US isn't in a position to intervene.

This scenario has the same issue that every other 'Leave the US alone' scenario has in the Pacific - the Americans are sitting on the Japanese line of communication between the Home Islands and where they are fighting. All the US needs to do is broadcast in clear any scouting reports from their patrol vessels, and the British in Singapore have warning.

Its also got the issue that, while French Indochina could be conquered, the time needed to do so will allow both Singapore and the Philippines to be reinforced. Its also a flat guarantee that - even if the US stays neutral - it will definitely be cranking their arms buildup into high gear.

Every month that goes by is another month for an equivalent of the Marco Polo Bridge incident, with the Americans continuing to get stronger.
 
Interested in the forum’s thoughts about the possibility of Japan joining the Axis earlier and going to war with France, the Netherlands, and the UK on or around the start of the Battle of France. Would America intervene? Would this be enough for the UK to through in the towel?

Its unlikely, Japan's sole focus was winning the war in China, it's the only reason why they went into French Indochina, and subsequently why the oil embargo happened. The Axis between Japan, Germany, and Italy was not really a strong alliance, as it was more a place for pariahs than an alliance with strong military ties or a clear goal.
 
Japan lacked incentives for this, previous to June 1940. While the war with Chian was not going well short term credit in the US and London banks was still available, trade with the US, British, French, and Dutch empires was relatively open. Tensions were not much worse than a year or two earlier after sinking a US warship and beating up a US diplomat. Economically and politically this makes little sense.

Militarily its a weak move previous to July 40. Italy is neutral & had given Japan no indication it was headed to war with its former allies in Europe. That left a sizable portion of the French and British fleets free to deploy to Asia/Pacfica. Japans own fleet was much weaker than eighteen months later. Its reconditioning and new construction programs were very far from complete. Most of the carrier air arm were obsolescent early 1930s designs. ie: The carrier fighter was the A5M 'Claude', underpowered engine by 1940 standards and just two medium MG. The initial replacement for the A5M was eight to ten months away & full replacement was some 24 months out. The new super battleships were not even launched, let alone shook down and possessing trained crews. Neither was the Army far enough along in its expansion program, having few spare corps or air wings. for operations vs the Brits, French or whomever.

After France collapses the view starts to change. While there are strong economic disincentives to attack anyone, French Indo China did start to look like low hanging fruit, as did the Dutch East Indies. Hence the start of the occupation of FIC in October 1940. The French did not resist because the Germans told them not to, approving or extending permission to Japan. Previously the Franco/German Armistice required France to resist any foreign intrusion into the French colonies. But the Brits were prowling about the globe, Japan was proving a distraction to Germanys enemies, and had little trouble with nazi ideology or objectives.

The results for Japan of the second phase, or escalation of the FIC occupation in the spring of 1941 were a surprise to Japan, and economically devastating. Freezing Japans accounts and activities in the US banks shut Japan out of global trade. So did the disappearance of foreign flagged cargo ships from Japans ports. In 1940 close to half the imports/exports from mainland Japan were on Foreign ships, mostly British controlled. ie: Norwegian, Greek, Dutch, Commonwealth, ect... Cutting off oil imports was almost redundant in that context. Japan could neither pay for or ship in more than token quantities of oil. Ditto for the chemicals, steel & alloys, lumber, ect... japan depended on.
 
Japan lacked incentives for this, previous to June 1940. While the war with Chian was not going well short term credit in the US and London banks was still available, trade with the US, British, French, and Dutch empires was relatively open. Tensions were not much worse than a year or two earlier after sinking a US warship and beating up a US diplomat. Economically and politically this makes little sense.

Militarily its a weak move previous to July 40. Italy is neutral & had given Japan no indication it was headed to war with its former allies in Europe. That left a sizable portion of the French and British fleets free to deploy to Asia/Pacfica. Japans own fleet was much weaker than eighteen months later. Its reconditioning and new construction programs were very far from complete. Most of the carrier air arm were obsolescent early 1930s designs. ie: The carrier fighter was the A5M 'Claude', underpowered engine by 1940 standards and just two medium MG. The initial replacement for the A5M was eight to ten months away & full replacement was some 24 months out. The new super battleships were not even launched, let alone shook down and possessing trained crews. Neither was the Army far enough along in its expansion program, having few spare corps or air wings. for operations vs the Brits, French or whomever.

After France collapses the view starts to change. While there are strong economic disincentives to attack anyone, French Indo China did start to look like low hanging fruit, as did the Dutch East Indies. Hence the start of the occupation of FIC in October 1940. The French did not resist because the Germans told them not to, approving or extending permission to Japan. Previously the Franco/German Armistice required France to resist any foreign intrusion into the French colonies. But the Brits were prowling about the globe, Japan was proving a distraction to Germanys enemies, and had little trouble with nazi ideology or objectives.

The results for Japan of the second phase, or escalation of the FIC occupation in the spring of 1941 were a surprise to Japan, and economically devastating. Freezing Japans accounts and activities in the US banks shut Japan out of global trade. So did the disappearance of foreign flagged cargo ships from Japans ports. In 1940 close to half the imports/exports from mainland Japan were on Foreign ships, mostly British controlled. ie: Norwegian, Greek, Dutch, Commonwealth, ect... Cutting off oil imports was almost redundant in that context. Japan could neither pay for or ship in more than token quantities of oil. Ditto for the chemicals, steel & alloys, lumber, ect... japan depended on.

Excellent points.
 

nbcman

Donor
Interested in the forum’s thoughts about the possibility of Japan joining the Axis earlier and going to war with France, the Netherlands, and the UK on or around the start of the Battle of France. Would America intervene? Would this be enough for the UK to through in the towel?
At the start of 1940 Western Campaign, the Western countries looked far more formidable than at the end of June 1940. The Japanese couldn’t foresee the disaster of May-June 1940-and by the time it occurred, the IJ would need time to shift forces to take advantage of the situation while keeping an eye on the Soviets prior to their Non-Aggression pact.

Look at where the Japanese forces were occupying in mid 1940. Then try to figure out how to grab the UK & Dutch colonies of SE Asia from those Japanese bases.

Why would IJ feel the need to attack in 1940 to get resources with no embargoes in place to prevent them from freely trading for them?

Plus look at what planes and ships are available. The IJ forces don’t have Zeros in 1940 but the shorter ranged A5Ms plus the D3 Val dive bombers were just entering service. IJN Kaga was in for upgrades in mid 1940, plus IJN Shokaku and Zuikaku were under construction.

Overall it would be an unprepared IJ trying to attack in June 1940 with far weaker forces than Dec 1941 that are out of position to make the lunge south.
 
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