Japan as a western colony - plausable or ASB
- Thread starter Osakadave
- Start date
Meiji yeah I'd say this is ASB the Japanese will then pull a Vietnam a century early on Brits or whoever
The POD would have to be before Meji. Once the Japanese started on their restoration there is no way in Hell that they will stop short of a full fledged invasion, but no European power would ever do that at that time, no point.
JohnJacques
Banned
Not to "pull a China".
That means carving japan up into spheres of influence. Which would certainly happen if Meiji failed or achieved the success only of say, Siam.
That means carving japan up into spheres of influence. Which would certainly happen if Meiji failed or achieved the success only of say, Siam.
I'm trying to find a plausable POD, but yeah, Vietnam's probably a better analogy.
I was thinking a Bakumatsu POD.
One possibility I'm considering is having Emperor Komei contract smallpox ten years earlier. Another is the Brits decide on a harsher response at Satsuma, including landing troops.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I don't see how it's ASB at all. Once the Restoration occurs there is a window of 10-15 years where Japan was still weak and divided enough for foreign powers to move in and exploit the situation. There just wasn't much motivation for anyone to do so. If you can come up with a reason, it wouldn't be that hard. Probably not quite "pull a China", but Japan could have become dominated by Western capital ala Egypt, the Ottomans, or various Latin American states, but as non-White, this could result in military intervention, direct involvement in internal affairs, protectorate, or even dismemberment.
Hendryk
Banned
I second this. If one can find a reason for Western powers to take an imperialistic interest in Japan, the attempt at modernization will in fact make foreign encroachment easier instead of harder. Because at that point Japan is dependent on Western capital and Western technical know-how, but on the other hand doesn't yet have the industrial base necessary to wage a modern war. Add to that the first socially disruptive effects of modernization and the political instability, and you have a very good opening for Western imperialism. The casus belli would be very easy to find, some diplomat or missionary getting killed would do (missionaries always provide very convenient excuses, as the military response can be spinned as "avenging Christian martyrs" and "pacifying the heathens").
Japan, due to its being an archipelago, would also be easy to carve out at some international summit--Hokkaido for Russia, Kyushu for France, Honshu for Britain, and Shikoku for the US.
Agree with others that it is no ASB. But after Meiji begins it is a bit less plausible then during the Bakumatsu. Then at least some of the powers consider that course of action, though all were reluctant to use force for various reasons. Russians tried to claim Tsusima but were rebuked by Europe.
After Meiji Restoration there was still a possibility that japanese leaders may do something really stupid and there was internal struggle for a decade. If they actually attack Korea in early 1870-th or Satsuma rebellion was more successful some western intervention is possible.
After Meiji Restoration there was still a possibility that japanese leaders may do something really stupid and there was internal struggle for a decade. If they actually attack Korea in early 1870-th or Satsuma rebellion was more successful some western intervention is possible.
The Republic of Ezo lasted 5 months. I'm looking for something a bit longer.
What I thinking now is an even earlier, but small and simple, PoD - stronger Anglo-Satsuma ties, via contact through Satsuma's vassal the Ryukyu Kingdom.
This only really seriously butterflys after Emperor Komei's early death.
1600-1850s - The British retain trade relations with the Satsuma and Choshu clans via the Ryukyu kingdoms.
After Komei's death in 1857, Mutsuhito (Meiji) succeedes to the throne under a Shogunate regent. The boy emperor does not become involved in the day to day affairs of the shogunate as his father did in 1858 in the OTL. The official "Order to Expell the Barbarians" is never given. Never the less, the Sonno Joi movement begins growing in strength, using the boy emperor as a rallying point.
In the late 1850s and early 1860s, various groups of Satsuma and Choshu, (and Tosa? Sending ) students are studying in the UK. Likewise, Shogunate supporters are, to a much more limited degree, studying in France. (The OTL's Chosu 5, Satsuma students, Bakufu students, and Iwakura mission sent a few years earlier.)
We end up with a Satsuma, Anglo friendly "Fukoku kyohei"/"Seibugaku" ("Enrich the country, strengthen the military"/Western School) faction, a French friendly Tokugawa faction, and an isolationist (but with Dutch support?) "Sonno Joi"/"kokugaku" (Respect the emperor, expel the barbarians/nationalist) faction, all three of which end up fighting it out.
And there were several instances of that happening OTL. The Sakai Incident happened within a few km of where I currently reside...)
I am glad to hear that not everyone thinks this is ASB.
Hendryk
Banned
Yeah, I was thinking about that. It's mentioned in The Honorable Visitors by Donald Richie, which I was reading recently.
King Thomas
Banned
Maybe at the very start of the Meji period it would be possible, before it, it certainly would be possible.
IIRC, weren't Japan and Thailand the only East Asian countries other than China, which didn't become colonies?
While working on my Taiping Victory thread, I was thinking about the butterfly effects it would have on Japan, if by the time of the Second Opium War in OTL (1860), China was unified under a regime strong enough to stand up to the Europeans, and maintain the ban on opium.
In that case, would the Europeans turn their attention towards Japan instead, colonizing it before it had a chance to modernize?
While working on my Taiping Victory thread, I was thinking about the butterfly effects it would have on Japan, if by the time of the Second Opium War in OTL (1860), China was unified under a regime strong enough to stand up to the Europeans, and maintain the ban on opium.
In that case, would the Europeans turn their attention towards Japan instead, colonizing it before it had a chance to modernize?
Hendryk
Banned
It wouldn't necessarily be a factor--after all, other parts of Asia that also have high population were colonized regardless. However, in such situations, the colonizers' safest bet is to rule through instrumentalization of the existing power structures, as anything more overt is liable to result in uprisings.
Hmm, I suppose that we could try to create a POD that could originate a longer civil war than the war of 1868-69.
If Yoshinobu has more will and the battle of Toba-Fushimi not end in a defeat for the forces of Tokugawa but in a stalemate (they don´t succeed in taken Kyoto but the could cause the sufficient heavy casualties to the pro-emperor forces to cause an stop to further advances for the Meiji forces) could be we could have an scenario where the Shogunate controls Edo with the help of his forces, the shogunate navy and the forces of the northern daymios, the sufficient also to receive foreign help from France? United Kingdom? while the Meiji forces could also receive foreign help from other nations.
In all I think that there are some good possibilities to make of the civil war of 1868-69 a longer affair ending in a stalemate, in a de facto divided Japan the probabilities that Japan ends as China in XIX centuries rise a lot.
If Yoshinobu has more will and the battle of Toba-Fushimi not end in a defeat for the forces of Tokugawa but in a stalemate (they don´t succeed in taken Kyoto but the could cause the sufficient heavy casualties to the pro-emperor forces to cause an stop to further advances for the Meiji forces) could be we could have an scenario where the Shogunate controls Edo with the help of his forces, the shogunate navy and the forces of the northern daymios, the sufficient also to receive foreign help from France? United Kingdom? while the Meiji forces could also receive foreign help from other nations.
In all I think that there are some good possibilities to make of the civil war of 1868-69 a longer affair ending in a stalemate, in a de facto divided Japan the probabilities that Japan ends as China in XIX centuries rise a lot.
How's this for a rough outline?
POD is early Tokugawa era
Satsuma manage to keep in contact w/ Brits via Ryukyu Kingdom, more or less in secret, resulting in the Southern Outer Daimyo being more foreign friendly
Nagasaki Incident, Perry, the unequal treaties all stay more or less the same
Next POD is Komei's death in 1857 (IOTL, the Shoguoate 1st started consulting w/ the emperor in 58)
No Expel the Barbarians Order
Sonno Joi movement ends up more underground, and radicalized
OTL conspiracy theory Komei was actually poisoned is stronger ITTL - maybe even true
Meiji on the throne at 5, with a Shogunate regent
French, Brits, Dutch and US, see an opprotunity
French/US support Tokugawas (US drops out due to ACW)
Brits/Dutch back Satsuma, Choshu, and Tosa (may have a rival claimant to Meiji - one of Komei's other kids survives or something)
Sonno Joi support Meiji
Three way Boshin war ends up with Republic of Ezo, weaker, isolationist Imperial rump state on Honshu, and rival Southern Imperial state w/ Ryoma or Ito as PM in Kyushu, Shikoku, & Ryukyus
Brits, French, Dutch and US end up carving up Honshu, but face ongoing Boxer/Moro style resistance movement
POD is early Tokugawa era
Satsuma manage to keep in contact w/ Brits via Ryukyu Kingdom, more or less in secret, resulting in the Southern Outer Daimyo being more foreign friendly
Nagasaki Incident, Perry, the unequal treaties all stay more or less the same
Next POD is Komei's death in 1857 (IOTL, the Shoguoate 1st started consulting w/ the emperor in 58)
No Expel the Barbarians Order
Sonno Joi movement ends up more underground, and radicalized
OTL conspiracy theory Komei was actually poisoned is stronger ITTL - maybe even true
Meiji on the throne at 5, with a Shogunate regent
French, Brits, Dutch and US, see an opprotunity
French/US support Tokugawas (US drops out due to ACW)
Brits/Dutch back Satsuma, Choshu, and Tosa (may have a rival claimant to Meiji - one of Komei's other kids survives or something)
Sonno Joi support Meiji
Three way Boshin war ends up with Republic of Ezo, weaker, isolationist Imperial rump state on Honshu, and rival Southern Imperial state w/ Ryoma or Ito as PM in Kyushu, Shikoku, & Ryukyus
Brits, French, Dutch and US end up carving up Honshu, but face ongoing Boxer/Moro style resistance movement
And Russia expand to include all of Sakhalin and (most of) the Kurile Islands.