Worst Case Japan TL
1853 POD: Negotiations break down between the Tokugawa Shogunate and Matthew Perry’s naval squadron in Edo bay. Unwilling to cow to Perry’s threat of bombardment the Shogunate officials return to shore, refusing even Perry’s offer of white flags with which to surrender. Faced with no other choice, Perry follows through with his threat and orders a full scale bombardment of Edo, wreaking considerable damage to the city. As the fires spread throughout the city, most of the officials and population evacuates, leaving only a handful of minor officials under Abe Masahiro to negotiate the surrender of Tokyo. Upon landing however, Perry is attacked by a group of rogue samurai, though the attack is driven off by his escort of Marines, the event further weakens the shogunate’s position and results in an even harsher treaty. In the end, the Treaty of Kaganawa, modeled on the unequal treaties signed by China, gives the Americans a treaty port at Shinoda and deeply curtails Japanese sovereignty. Following the signing of the treaty Masahiro commits suicide feeling a deep sense of dishonour.
1854: Hearing of the signing of the Treaty of Kaganawa, other major powers, fearing an American monopoly of the Japan market, choose to impose similar treaties on Japan. Over the course of 1854 the UK, France, Russia, and the Dutch all manage to gain similar treaties (and ports) at the expense of Japan’s sovereignty. Due to these capitulations to the foreigners the Shogunate’s popularity and legitimacy enters a free fall. In reaction to this, the Shogunate decides to embark on a very conservative reform program (they fear modernization would further weaken their already tentative hold on power).
1855-1859: Over the course of 5 years little changes outside Japan, inside Japan however...
-Discontent with the Shogunate skyrockets. This is expressed in the exponential growth of the
shi-shi movement (1)
-The 5 western powers involved in Japan (US, UK, France, Russia, Holland) all establish embassies in Edo
- Examples of Millennialist religious movements begin to crop up all over Japan as a result of the great disturbance surrounding the violent imposition of foreign rule. Often these Millennialist movements are closely tied with the quasi-religious figure of the Emperor and have adherents among the
shi-shi
-Several domains such as Satsuma in the south as well as others, embark on modernization programs. However these efforts are fragmented and hampered by the Tokugawa reform program.
-Attempts at a conservative Tokugawa reform, peter out as the 1850’s draw to a close, leaving the samurai class more disenfranchised than ever and causing far more harm than good.
-Increased trade with the west, causes a massive increase in demand, especially for silk. This results in Japan’s agricultural landscape being altered, with rice paddies being drained to grow silk trees at an amazing rate. This causes a huge increase in the price of rice and several famines/peasant revolts (2).
1859: The beginning of the New Year according to the Japanese calendar marks the beginning of the
sonno joi(3) rebellion, as hundreds of disenfranchised samurai, encouraged by a form of populist, pro-Emperor millennialism, storm Kyoto, free the Emperor and begin to march towards Edo. Though the Tokugawa shogunate attempts to stop these rebels, their forces are in no way shape or form willing to fight for them. Tokugawa resistance crumbles in front of the
sonno-joi and their numbers swell to several thousand upon approaching Edo. The rebels then proceed to dethrone the Shogun and re-assert the Emperor’s supreme authority over Japan. Once restored, the Emperor’s first order is to expel the barbarians. In Edo this leads to samurai massacring the foreign embassies present within the city (though some manage to escape along with a handful of the shogun’s family and officials). Elsewhere the various domains begrudgingly side with the Emperor lest they face widespread revolts and begin to attack/besiege the various treaty ports.
When news of the
sonno-joi rebellion spreads to the rest of the world, the 5 powers involved in Japan decide to coordinate their response. Forming the “Five Power Alliance”, troops and ships from the US, the UK, France, Holland, and Russia, all embark to lift the sieges of their respective treaty ports. Arriving later that year, the Allied troops drive off the samurai (who have only partially adopted gunpowder weaponry and still lack training for the most part) and lift the sieges of their respective treaty ports. It is then decided to coordinate an attack on Edo to restore the Shogunate. Assembling under the overall leadership of American commander, newly promoted General Robert E. Lee, the Allied armies march on Edo and decisively defeat the
sonno-joi in a pitched battle forcing them to abandon the city.
Restoring the shogunate, the Allied armies, now backed by some more progressive/disaffected samurai march on Kyoto and proceed to defeat the sonno-joi again effectively ending the Rebellion. The resulting treaties between the restored Shogunate and the Allied powers are incredibly harsh and resemble the Boxer Protocols imposed on China in OTL. Japan is effectively partitioned into spheres of influence, while some areas are completely annexed (Hokkaido->Russia). Domains that supported the rebellion (most of them) are dismantled, their lands redistributed. Furthermore the Emperor is forced to retire and is replaced by his 7 year old son who is forced to accept the restored Tokugawa shogun as a regent. Furthermore, the treaties ending the sonno-joi rebellion effectively eliminate any remaining sovereignty the shogunate had, reducing it to little more than a puppet regime of the foreign powers.
1860’s: Japan slowly begins to recover from the disastrous
Sonno-joi rebellion. The shogunate opts to reduce shogun/emperor friction by marrying into the imperial family(4). With the conservative line of thought thoroughly discredited along with the sonno-joi, the shogunate begins to take a more liberal course of action in the hopes of modernizing enough to come out from under the unequal treaties. However the damage has already been done and it will be some time before Japan can once again reassert its sovereignty.
Meanwhile in Qing China, officials witness the effective partition of Japan and emphatically throw their support behind the reform efforts of Prince Gong...
Notes:
1-The "shi-shi" movement existed in OTL using the slogan "sonno-joi" roughly translated as "Revere the Emperor, expell the barbarians". In OTL this movement would eventually lead to the restoration of the Meiji Emperor and would gradually lose the vicious anti-foreign attitude it originally had. In TTL this doesn't happen as the movement grows quicker than OTL and is infused with millenarian elements.
2-This happened in OTL
3-Like OTL's "Boxer" rebellion, TTL's "Sonno Joi" rebellion takes it's name from the motto of the shi-shi.
4-This too happened in OTL, however the actions of the shi-shi made it pointless. In TTL with the shi-shi firmly discredited, the "union of court and camp" will be much more effective perhaps leading to "Shogun Emperors"?
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Thoughts? Comments? Criticism?
Personally, I don't think this TL is all too unlikely. Such conservative streams of thought did exist in Japan and were indeed quite common. IMO Japan is extremely lucky to have had the right people in place at the right time to steer them away from pursuing a more traditional course of action like the one in this TL.
Also, should I continue this TL? I have some rough ideas for where I want to take it. Any thoughts on how industrialization will occur in Japan under foreign/shogunal rule?