Japan and Russia Keep out of Korea

What would happen to Korea if Japan and Russia kept out and respected its independence/Chinese client status? I think pre-World War II Japan invades Korea and it is eventually liberated by joint Soviet-American forces but, is there a chance the monarchy can be restored or would the Soviets prop up Kim Il-Sung?
 
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  1. what's the POD? my guess is no First Sino-Japanese war, as per yboxman's TL; then not only would this have major butterflies for Russia and Japan, it also affects America because they're more or less direct contestants for the Pacific.
  2. let's assume we still see a rise of expansionism in Japan due to a global financial crisis after a WWI-esque European war. Japan will definitely invade Korea, or coerce it to submission. After that Korea will probs serve as a platform to invade Manchuria and northern China, and this depends on how this war plays out.
  3. I doubt Kim will even exist in this scenario.
 
  1. what's the POD?
Japan wins the First Sino-Japanese War like in OTL and as others have proposed, a timeline where Spain sells the Philippines to Japan. The Filipino resistance proves more than a challenge to Japan, causing them to gradually divert their attention away from Korea. As for Russia, perhaps an ATL event in the Balkans and/or Persia occurs diverting their attention away from Far Eastern affairs.
 
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LordKalvert

Banned
For the Russians and the Japanese to both stay out of Korea, then the two would have to conclude some type of alliance where they partition Asia but choose to leave Korea as a neutral buffer state between them

Its easy enough for them to do that- but if they do, then we're creating so many butterflies, its hard to get to a WWII or at least one that resembles OTL.

For the monarchy to survive, then the King would have had to flee to Russia and become the client of the eventual victor. That's real hard to do with a TL that has the Soviets in it
 
Wouldn't the easier way to accomplish this be a POD further back that strengthens/modernizes China? If China is a significant regional power capable of force projection, then Korea's status as a client state is safe.
 
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