Japan and Germany have the 3rd and 4th Most Powerful Militaries

What would it take for the German and Japanese armed forces to have no restrictions regarding their military sizes/expenditure and rise up to (temporarily, at least) be the 3rd and 4 most powerful militaries in the world after the US and USSR?
 
Weaken the US economy in the 1970s and '80s, and Washington will pressure the Japanese and Germans to do more of the "burden sharing".
 
Regarding Japan, spending wouldn't be necessarily a problem from practical or economic point of view, it's mostly a political question. According to some estimates, Japan did have the second largest military spending in the world just after the collapse of the Soviet Union and it has been the third largest spender for longer periods in the 80's and 90's. If Japan increased its spending from the current level of 1.0% of its GDP to 1.5%, a relatively modest number, it would already reach the same level than Russia, about 69 billion USD, if we use SIPRI's estimates.

It should be noted though that even if Japan did have larger military budget, the military's role might be still limited to strictly defensive tasks if there aren't big changes in Japan's own domestic policies and thinking regarding security issues.
 
Regarding Japan, spending wouldn't be necessarily a problem from practical or economic point of view, it's mostly a political question. According to some estimates, Japan did have the second largest military spending in the world just after the collapse of the Soviet Union and it has been the third largest spender for longer periods in the 80's and 90's. If Japan increased its spending from the current level of 1.0% of its GDP to 1.5%, a relatively modest number, it would already reach the same level than Russia, about 69 billion USD, if we use SIPRI's estimates.

It should be noted though that even if Japan did have larger military budget, the military's role might be still limited to strictly defensive tasks if there aren't big changes in Japan's own domestic policies and thinking regarding security issues.
The problem of course is that Germany Japan spent and still spends a few billion a year on American bases. I doubt they can fund the 3rd and 4th most powerful military in the world while still paying off USA every year.
 
The problem of course is that Germany Japan spent and still spends a few billion a year on American bases. I doubt they can fund the 3rd and 4th most powerful military in the world while still paying off USA every year.

Although numbers differ depending who you ask, Japan's payments to the US are probably about 5 billion USD annually. This represent about 10% of Japanese military spending. I would assume though that in a scenario where Japan spends more on defence, its payments to the US would be also lower, though for political reasons having few American bases in the country would be still necessarily, if the alliance hasn't totally collapsed for some reason. Until the 1990's Japan's economy was doing quite well and probably could have afforded more defence spending. To make the scenario more plausible, it would probably help that Japan makes different economic and fiscal decisions starting in the early 1980's and avoids the Lost Decades. Some sort of economic slowdown can't be probably avoided due to structural and demographic reasons, but the shock could be less severe than it has been IOTL.
 
I don't know if it could have been called the 3rd most powerful, the two Germanies did build up quite large and formidable military forces during the course of the Cold War OTL.
 

Md139115

Banned
Well, in fairness, to achieve third place, you need to butterfly away the rise of China as a world power, and as there would not be as much incentive for Japan to spend so much...

I'm not sure, but I think 4th and 5th place is more plausible a scenario.
 

Wimble Toot

Banned
What would it take for the German and Japanese armed forces to have no restrictions regarding their military sizes/expenditure and rise up to (temporarily, at least) be the 3rd and 4 most powerful militaries in the world after the US and USSR?

An alien space bat.
 
Well, in fairness, to achieve third place, you need to butterfly away the rise of China as a world power, and as there would not be as much incentive for Japan to spend so much...

Other option is to keep the Soviet Union together. I think one general issue has always been though that Japan hasn't really thought that the Soviet Union (or China or NK) actually poses a direct threat towards it. Arguably until the 1970's the JSDF was probably more directed against internal threats than any external ones. During the hypothetical WW3, there would be naval action in waters surrounding Japan and probably the Soviet air force would be doing its shenanigans but a direct amphibious assault against Japan wasn't seen a particularly likely threat, or at least a threat enough so that more investment into defence would be needed.
 

Deleted member 1487

Collapse of NATO at a minimum. Resurgent Russia. More expansionist China?
 
USA, USSR, Imperial Germany and Imperial Japan. UK lost its Empire and bungled itself to present day. Same with France. China still struggling with internal strife or divided. Some murky change to the Great War, no second world war, different regional wars and messier decolonialization era.
 

Maoistic

Banned
It was really impossible during the Cold War. Germany would have to go on another blitzkrieg to reunify East Germany and conquer enough land to create and field an actual military. The thing is, the US and the USSR would have immediately stopped this. The US and USSR would have to lay still in order for Germany to do this.

In the case of Japan, reinvade Asia and steal its resources and reform its military. Again, the US and the USSR, and China as well, would have to lay still like for this to happen. If Japan tried to pull another WWII stunt, the Soviets and the US would have bodied the Japanese immediately.
 
What would it take for the German and Japanese armed forces to have no restrictions regarding their military sizes/expenditure and rise up to (temporarily, at least) be the 3rd and 4 most powerful militaries in the world after the US and USSR?

At what time? During WWII both were in the top 5.
 
What would it take for the German and Japanese armed forces to have no restrictions regarding their military sizes/expenditure and rise up to (temporarily, at least) be the 3rd and 4 most powerful militaries in the world after the US and USSR?

The Japanese already operate one of the largest and most technologically-advanced navies in the world - it's ranked fourth or fifth, and that's with their post-war constitution...
 
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