I've just got back from a holiday to Hiroshima and my visit got me thinking a lot about the closing days of the Asian theatre of WW2.
One thought has struck me- if only Japan had been sane.
It might at first seem a minor change to have Japan accept the declaration in grand historic terms but...the effects could really be rather large....
1: No atomic bombings. Not just a change in terms of loss of life, industry and culture (so much in Nagasaki lost....). The atomic bombings served a dual purpose, firstly of course to help contribute to defeating Japan...but also
a: it helped explain the sheer cost of the Manhatten Project. It was a bloody expensive thing. Having the atomic bombs painted as the weapon that won the war and saved lots of American lives (of course, not strictly true...) made the investment seem worthwhile and so further investment in atomic research was a lot easier to sexure.
b: it showed the Soviets where the balance of power in the post-war world lay. It was a message to them not to try anything funny as they had nothing to match this weapon.
Just what impact could come of nuclear bombs never having been used in anger?
Also...the realisation of the human affect of such weapons would be very slow to come....
2: No Soviet entry into the Pacific theatre.
Potentially a huge one this.
We'd have a united independant Korea, perhaps a better and more democratic one too without the need to pick any random strongman to rule in the south to counter Kim in the north....perhaps the whole lot could end up soviet alligned with the popularity of Kim....So many ifs there.
Manchuria does not end up occupied by the Soviets- a huge one this, the Manchukiko industry is what won the Chinese civil war for the reds. Put it into the hands of the RoC instead and...we have quite a different China. Which again would have impacts beyond China.
Karafuto and the Kurils remain Japanese. Japan has a land border with the Soviets. Potentially very interesting for spy novels and the like. Would be a big factor in Japanese post-war thinking and Cold War planning.
So....perhaps somebody who knows a lot about Japanese thinking decides to term the declaration a bit better. Makes it clear that the west wants Japan to be a democratic constitutional monarchy with full respect remaining with the emperor.
Or perhaps the Japanese realise that it is only a matter of time before the Soviets jump in to try and grab something now the war in Europe is done. The Soviet threat really worried the Japanese.
Any thoughts?