Japan a Great Power of the World by the 1600s?

Cyan

Banned
I think that by the point that the Japanese think that eliminating a peninsuela full of people things economic or political collapse would be a non issue.

That is to say, such bridges would have been crossed LONG before the japanese could occupy succesfully, let alone pacify the area.

I think the mentality at such a point would be "Damned if we are going to let it go without everything we can do, including our own collapse"

Kind of a fight to the death mentality for not only the nobility but the general population of japan as well.

which would neccesitate butterflies above and beyond anything considered remotely reasonable.
 

scholar

Banned
Yes, but any innovations that Japan would have made would be quickly countered by Korea (and China) as well.

Generally agreed, given very specific circumstances in other regions, although this also means that Japan has to take numerous far-flung islands within the Pacific, all with minimal resources, and that it would first have to take Hokkaido and the Ryukyu Islands first before expanding significantly elsewhere.
You overrate both China and Korea in this instance. Even when faced with an immediate threat and danger both ultimately did little in the way of innovation to counter them and ultimately fell victim to the course of time; to be dominated by other powers. Japan resisted this, Siam accomplished something similar, but it is clear that innovation either did not gain traction or was only done in limited ways. It even eventually reversed in the wake of what should have been an epiphany. There's no reason to assume that simply because it is the Japanese that this trend would reverse. Granted this period is far earlier in the period of stagnation and its highly possible that such a change would mean the Far East does not follow a similar path in history, but I don't get that feeling from your posts.

Hokkaido and the Ryukyu are not even minor obstacles to deal with. The Shimazu, a single Daimyo (though one of the top 5) clan, conquered one of them. The Ryukyu's were allowed to exist under their control for the lucrative trade and as a way to get around mainland restrictions. A unified Japan wouldn't have any issues with them. A similar instance occurs with the Ainu of Hokkaido, a relatively tiny Daimyo had the power to dominate the region for the purposes of trade with the blessings of the Shogunate. It would take far less effort than what went into Okinawa to take control there. There were cultural reasons too, but Japan showed itself to take an opposite approach to the way Korea and China dealt with what they viewed as barbarian lands.

While Japan had minimal resources, the actual weight of this scarcity wouldn't be felt until the industrial ages. The resources in Japan were easy to access, though few in number, and was more than enough to start and continue a war far larger in scale in all regards to most of the wars occurring in Europe.
 
You overrate both China and Korea in this instance. Even when faced with an immediate threat and danger both ultimately did little in the way of innovation to counter them and ultimately fell victim to the course of time; to be dominated by other powers. Japan resisted this, Siam accomplished something similar, but it is clear that innovation either did not gain traction or was only done in limited ways. It even eventually reversed in the wake of what should have been an epiphany. There's no reason to assume that simply because it is the Japanese that this trend would reverse. Granted this period is far earlier in the period of stagnation and its highly possible that such a change would mean the Far East does not follow a similar path in history, but I don't get that feeling from your posts.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that butterflies would lead to drastic changes in the long run. If Gwanghaegun had more support from the court due to the Imjin War not occurring, allowing him to consolidate power during his status as the crown prince and shortly after he takes the throne, he would have been able to more actively send diplomats and reorganize the military, as he had made significant progress IOTL when he was overthrown in 1623. If he had managed to successfully reform the military, and continue to utilize diplomacy, there would have been drastic changes regarding the government, military, technology, and the economy after decades of changes.

Hokkaido and the Ryukyu are not even minor obstacles to deal with. The Shimazu, a single Daimyo (though one of the top 5) clan, conquered one of them. The Ryukyu's were allowed to exist under their control for the lucrative trade and as a way to get around mainland restrictions. A unified Japan wouldn't have any issues with them. A similar instance occurs with the Ainu of Hokkaido, a relatively tiny Daimyo had the power to dominate the region for the purposes of trade with the blessings of the Shogunate. It would take far less effort than what went into Okinawa to take control there. There were cultural reasons too, but Japan showed itself to take an opposite approach to the way Korea and China dealt with what they viewed as barbarian lands.

While Japan had minimal resources, the actual weight of this scarcity wouldn't be felt until the industrial ages. The resources in Japan were easy to access, though few in number, and was more than enough to start and continue a war far larger in scale in all regards to most of the wars occurring in Europe.

Yes, but there's a large difference between maintaining a greater presence and eventually becoming a major power across different regions. The fact that Japan began to suffer from population pressures around 1800 IOTL suggests that if it began to expand significantly and emigrate abroad in mass numbers beforehand, it would eventually have to find much more efficient methods in order to supply its entire population, which would be difficult without more resources, although trade would somewhat mitigate it.
 

scholar

Banned
Again, you're ignoring the fact that butterflies would lead to drastic changes in the long run. If Gwanghaegun had more support from the court due to the Imjin War not occurring, allowing him to consolidate power during his status as the crown prince and shortly after he takes the throne, he would have been able to more actively send diplomats and reorganize the military, as he had made significant progress IOTL when he was overthrown in 1623. If he had managed to successfully reform the military, and continue to utilize diplomacy, there would have been drastic changes regarding the government, military, technology, and the economy after decades of changes.
I'm not ignoring butterflies at all. In fact, I had already said that butterflies dictate that such a thing could happen. My immediate response was to your inclination that such changes would occur automatically, or seem very likely to occur. As I had made no comment towards whether or not the Imjin war occurred or did not occur or happened differently there is no reason for you to make your argument around the "what if" of Gwanghaegun. Butterflies could just as easily cause his death or disfavor as help him, especially since the Imjin War is not the thing I have put any comment towards. Furthermore, changes occurring in Korea does not mean changes occur in similar moves in China.

The idea that both would move to counter Japanese innovation as they get advantages over them is bizarre as a likely outcome when we know that such an attitude goes against both their cultural views and their history. This is an area you and elfwine took great lengths to remind me of earlier. I am not even saying that it couldn't happen, just that its not something that should be accepted as a natural and immediate reaction to events occurring within Japan. Especially since you based your what-if around the notion that Japan avoids its war with them, severely limiting direct military contact since once united Japan cramped down hard on Wakou activities. So could your projection occur? Sure. Is it a common outcome that would occur unless actions are taken deliberately against because such changes would be a natural reaction to keep up? No, I really don't think so.

Even assuming Gwanghaegun does everything you say he will, what's to stop the next one in line from regressing the trend or simply being statisfied where they are? What's the motivation for looking east and copying them and their innovation when traditionally the west (china) was nearly always the model to aspire to?

Yes, but there's a large difference between maintaining a greater presence and eventually becoming a major power across different regions. The fact that Japan began to suffer from population pressures around 1800 IOTL suggests that if it began to expand significantly and emigrate abroad in mass numbers beforehand, it would eventually have to find much more efficient methods in order to supply its entire population, which would be difficult without more resources, although trade would somewhat mitigate it.
Should it expand significantly abroad then one should assume that it has lands somewhat similar to other colonial powers experiencing similar levels of population emigration, lands which have the means of producing goods. England actually didn't have a whole lot of resources, neither did the Dutch, comparatively speaking in this time frame. That's why they expanded, to seek out goods and resources. Japan could make similar moves, especially since there is now a need for it brought about by population strains and local scarcity. That's actually the main reason for colonialism and the rise of great powers around the world.
 
I'm not ignoring butterflies at all. In fact, I had already said that butterflies dictate that such a thing could happen. My immediate response was to your inclination that such changes would occur automatically, or seem very likely to occur. As I had made no comment towards whether or not the Imjin war occurred or did not occur or happened differently there is no reason for you to make your argument around the "what if" of Gwanghaegun. Butterflies could just as easily cause his death or disfavor as help him, especially since the Imjin War is not the thing I have put any comment towards. Furthermore, changes occurring in Korea does not mean changes occur in similar moves in China.

The idea that both would move to counter Japanese innovation as they get advantages over them is bizarre as a likely outcome when we know that such an attitude goes against both their cultural views and their history. This is an area you and elfwine took great lengths to remind me of earlier. I am not even saying that it couldn't happen, just that its not something that should be accepted as a natural and immediate reaction to events occurring within Japan. Especially since you based your what-if around the notion that Japan avoids its war with them, severely limiting direct military contact since once united Japan cramped down hard on Wakou activities. So could your projection occur? Sure. Is it a common outcome that would occur unless actions are taken deliberately against because such changes would be a natural reaction to keep up? No, I really don't think so.

Even assuming Gwanghaegun does everything you say he will, what's to stop the next one in line from regressing the trend or simply being statisfied where they are? What's the motivation for looking east and copying them and their innovation when traditionally the west (china) was nearly always the model to aspire to?

These points are fine, and my point was that Japan's gradual expansion was not necessarily mutually exclusive with other potential responses from Korea and China. I'm not saying that a specific scenario is definitive, but that butterflies occurring across various regions, resulting in numerous innovations and different expansions in the long run, are likely as well, due to complex nature of political and economic relations within East Asia, either within or among states, at the time.

In addition, I had already stated that the Imjin War had severely affected the Japanese military and its resources, and regardless of whether you think that the war was a major reason for Japan's isolation or not, it certainly had a significant impact on the politics afterward. Tokugawa Ieyasu was able to gain power afterward due to the weakness of other clans, and the isolation policy later occurred because Japan feared that European powers would potentially invade, both of which would have been butterflied away or mitigated if a large amount of troops hadn't been killed in Korea beforehand. As a result, Japan would first need to reconsolidate before looking outward again, and European powers would have further consolidated their influences within Southeast Asia by then, which would certainly not be ideal for Japan.

Should it expand significantly abroad then one should assume that it has lands somewhat similar to other colonial powers experiencing similar levels of population emigration, lands which have the means of producing goods. England actually didn't have a whole lot of resources, neither did the Dutch, comparatively speaking in this time frame. That's why they expanded, to seek out goods and resources. Japan could make similar moves, especially since there is now a need for it brought about by population strains and local scarcity. That's actually the main reason for colonialism and the rise of great powers around the world.

Yes, but several European powers, namely the Spanish, Portuguese, and the Dutch, had already begun to expand into islands surrounding the Pacific by the 17th century, not to mention that China and Korea would theoretically also be in a position to look further south as well due to butterflies. Japan could certainly establish some settlements, but the fact that others would begin to do so as well suggests that it would come nowhere close to becoming a "great power" without antagonizing its neighbors.
 
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Well Japan had a fair deal of contact with the Europeans, provided the Tokugawa don't come to power and the Toyotomi manage to hold on after Hideyoshi's death. Could we see Japan adopt a more wide spread use of western style ships, or be considered a power willing to be an won over by technology and goods by western nations. How prevalent was anti-christian activity in Japan before the Tokugawa came to power?
 

scholar

Banned
These points are fine, and my point was that Japan's gradual expansion was not necessarily mutually exclusive with other potential responses from Korea and China. I'm not saying that a specific scenario is definitive, but that butterflies occurring across various regions, resulting in numerous innovations and different expansions in the long run, are likely as well, due to complex nature of political and economic relations within East Asia, either within or among states, at the time.
I'm simply skeptical regarding the long term liklihood of anything coming from it without a direct need brought about by something given their relative reluctance to move forward in such fields.

In addition, I had already stated that the Imjin War had severely affected the Japanese military and its resources, and regardless of whether you think that the war was a major reason for Japan's isolation or not, it certainly had a significant impact on the politics afterward.
And yet I have repeatedly stated that I am making no comments towards the Imjin War effects, I just brought up the campaign as an example of a war that utilized logistics and numbers on a scale dwarfing most European wars at this time. Not all, but most. Later campaigns, even battles such as Sekigahara and Osaka, were on similarly massive scales in some regards.

Avoiding the Imjin War strengthens Japan and increases the likelihood not to turn inward to Europeans, not the opposite.

Yes, but several European powers, namely the Spanish, Portuguese, and the Dutch, had already begun to expand into islands surrounding the Pacific by the 17th century, not to mention that China and Korea would theoretically also be in a position to look further south as well due to butterflies. Japan could certainly establish some settlements, but the fact that others would begin to do so as well suggests that it would come nowhere close to becoming a "great power" without antagonizing its neighbors.
Neither Korea nor China would wish to look further south until they get over much more troublesome cultural perspectives that heavily mitigated expansionism, especially as far as the barbarian islands to the south and east are concerned. Japan is in a greater position to do so, and neither China or Korea would be in a position to challenge them until something happens to make them do so. That would take time, a significant amount of time.

In the meantime the Dutch, Spanish, and Portuguese were fairly weak in the region and was held together more by awe and fear more so than real power and ability. The actual number of soldiers they have in the early 1600s here is quite small, and could easily be overrun if Japan had half of the naval power and projection. An order that's not too tall to ask with a decent POD or even the simple reaction of them continuing at the rate they were.
 
I'm simply skeptical regarding the long term liklihood of anything coming from it without a direct need brought about by something given their relative reluctance to move forward in such fields.

So why did Gwanghaegun actually raise an army soon after the Imjin War and actually send diplomats to both the Ming and Manchus, even though the entire peninsula was still recovering from the devastating invasion, while the latter were considered to be "barbarians" and too unreasonable to deal with by the court? In the past, Goryeo constantly sent diplomats to the Khitan and the Mongols in order to hammer out more secure relations, so if the state's independence is threatened in any way, significant attempts will almost be certainly made in order to establish more peaceful relationships or form an alliance. Even the contacts with the Japanese before the war were aimed to continuously maintain cordial political and economic relations, although Japan eventually invaded in order to eventually conquer China. It's questionable whether this general policy would extend to other states further south as well, due to the distance involved, but it would depend on the specific situation.

And yet I have repeatedly stated that I am making no comments towards the Imjin War effects, I just brought up the campaign as an example of a war that utilized logistics and numbers on a scale dwarfing most European wars at this time. Not all, but most. Later campaigns, even battles such as Sekigahara and Osaka, were on similarly massive scales in some regards.

Avoiding the Imjin War strengthens Japan and increases the likelihood not to turn inward to Europeans, not the opposite.

I'm not disagreeing, but I'm essentially arguing that the Imjin War would essentially have to be butterflied away in order to allow a more open mindset to continue for centuries afterward, as it severely exhausted resources and limited the nation's capability to conduct offensive operations, accelerating the process toward isolation. That's all.

Neither Korea nor China would wish to look further south until they get over much more troublesome cultural perspectives that heavily mitigated expansionism, especially as far as the barbarian islands to the south and east are concerned. Japan is in a greater position to do so, and neither China or Korea would be in a position to challenge them until something happens to make them do so. That would take time, a significant amount of time.

In the meantime the Dutch, Spanish, and Portuguese were fairly weak in the region and was held together more by awe and fear more so than real power and ability. The actual number of soldiers they have in the early 1600s here is quite small, and could easily be overrun if Japan had half of the naval power and projection. An order that's not too tall to ask with a decent POD or even the simple reaction of them continuing at the rate they were.

As stated above, it depends on the actual situation. If Japan began to gain significant sources due to possessions overseas, and began trading much more extensively with its neighbors, then Korea and/or China might be intrigued to search further in order to counter Japan's influence. Zheng He's expeditions initially convinced the Ming that there was essentially nothing worth of value overseas, but if Japan manages to reap significant gains for a while, then the mindset as a whole might gradually change over time.

The Europeans might not have been as involved at the time compared to what occurred later on, but sending tens of thousands, if not hundreds, to fight overseas essentially means that various clans could potentially have more influence within the state, as the military influence would be significantly reduced, while any significant defeats overseas could eventually leave the soldiers stranded, and significant expansion could eventually strain the state's resources as a whole.
 

scholar

Banned
So why did Gwanghaegun actually raise an army soon after the Imjin War and actually send diplomats to both the Ming and Manchus, even though the entire peninsula was still recovering from the devastating invasion, while the latter were considered to be "barbarians" and too unreasonable to deal with by the court?
The Chinese themselves were known to bow to barbarian peoples when they were too hurt or defeated, and they themselves regularly sent envoys to powerful barbarians in order to influence and play politics with them. The Ming actually propped up the Manchus to be their guards and stewards, a situation that has a number of analogs in their own past such as with the southern Xiongnu. These were to ward off immediate military threats and to secure their borders.

Such would not be the case with distant barbarian islands, because such was not the case throughout their entire history. You need to significantly change things for that to happen.

I'm not disagreeing, but I'm essentially arguing that the Imjin War would essentially have to be butterflied away in order to allow a more open mindset to continue for centuries afterward, as it severely exhausted resources and limited the nation's capability to conduct offensive operations, accelerating the process toward isolation. That's all.
Fair enough, however I would suggest that the Imjin War doesn't have to necessarily be butterflied away, merely its execution or perhaps the internal power structure of the Toyotomi.

If Japan began to gain significant sources due to possessions overseas, and began trading much more extensively with its neighbors, then Korea and/or China might be intrigued to search further in order to counter Japan's influence.
Questin: why?

Both of us have, over the topics, commented on various ways for China and Korea to look outward and compete with Europe. All of these revolved around internal changes: be it cultural, economical, or even political. None of them had it occur as a natural product of a change occurring in Japan. While both Korea and China recognized Japan as above most other states, it was still a lesser entity to them.

Again: its possible, but I'm not sure I see this occurring without something making this happen. How lesser entities dealt with barbarians was of no concern to China unless other factors already made them their concern. That would suggest that Japan would have free reign until it does something very stupid, by then the gap may be large enough for Japan to win.

The Europeans might not have been as involved at the time compared to what occurred later on, but sending tens of thousands, if not hundreds, to fight overseas essentially means that various clans could potentially have more influence within the state, as the military influence would be significantly reduced, while any significant defeats overseas could eventually leave the soldiers stranded, and significant expansion could eventually strain the state's resources as a whole.
While I do not deny that those problems would be difficult when faced, any issues Japan would have are magnified many times greater for the Europeans given the vast difference in strain when it comes to logistics.
 
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You overrate both China and Korea in this instance. Even when faced with an immediate threat and danger both ultimately did little in the way of innovation to counter them and ultimately fell victim to the course of time; to be dominated by other powers. Japan resisted this, Siam accomplished something similar, but it is clear that innovation either did not gain traction or was only done in limited ways. It even eventually reversed in the wake of what should have been an epiphany. There's no reason to assume that simply because it is the Japanese that this trend would reverse. Granted this period is far earlier in the period of stagnation and its highly possible that such a change would mean the Far East does not follow a similar path in history, but I don't get that feeling from your posts.

Hokkaido and the Ryukyu are not even minor obstacles to deal with. The Shimazu, a single Daimyo (though one of the top 5) clan, conquered one of them. The Ryukyu's were allowed to exist under their control for the lucrative trade and as a way to get around mainland restrictions. A unified Japan wouldn't have any issues with them. A similar instance occurs with the Ainu of Hokkaido, a relatively tiny Daimyo had the power to dominate the region for the purposes of trade with the blessings of the Shogunate. It would take far less effort than what went into Okinawa to take control there. There were cultural reasons too, but Japan showed itself to take an opposite approach to the way Korea and China dealt with what they viewed as barbarian lands.

While Japan had minimal resources, the actual weight of this scarcity wouldn't be felt until the industrial ages. The resources in Japan were easy to access, though few in number, and was more than enough to start and continue a war far larger in scale in all regards to most of the wars occurring in Europe.

Actually he is full of Korean Patriotism, and always overrate Koreans while underrate others. It is what he is doing. So no need to convince him. He won't listen what you say. in order to make him agree with you is to do Koreans Superpower... ;)
 
One thing which might work: the Japanese conquer Taiwan instead of Korea.

Not sure why we're calling Ming aid token: We're talking about tens of thousands of troops...

But note that koxing, basically operated as a pirate from a strip of Fujian, was able to build a fleet powerful enough to seize Taiwan. So the capacity to build a fleet is there.

I'm agree with you, if Japanese conquered Taiwan they would have made expansion to Philippine next.
 

scholar

Banned
Actually he is full of Korean Patriotism, and always overrate Koreans while underrate others. It is what he is doing. So no need to convince him. He won't listen what you say. in order to make him agree with you is to do Koreans Superpower... ;)
He's actually not that bad. He has a bias towards Korea, but everyone has some bias to one state or another and has on more than few occasions provided an excellent debate that educated me in some way.

If you want real bias find a Korean revisionist. At that point if you don't admit that Korean civilization spawned East Asian civilization, if not the world, then you obviously don't know what you are talking about. That, amongst other things, that Confucius was a Korean, China never made any significant inroads into Korea, that most of coastal China was at certain points a colony of Korea, that all of west Japan was a Korean colony during the time of Silla and Baekje, Korea was never part of the tributary system or was merely lying the entire time they were in it, and the East emulated Korea instead of China. The worst part of this is that most of the time its a South Korean, not a North Korean, stating this. Thankfully I've only had the distinct pleasure of discussing this with a small number (around 5) over the years.
 
He's actually not that bad. He has a bias towards Korea, but everyone has some bias to one state or another and has on more than few occasions provided an excellent debate that educated me in some way.

If you want real bias find a Korean revisionist. At that point if you don't admit that Korean civilization spawned East Asian civilization, if not the world, then you obviously don't know what you are talking about. That, amongst other things, that Confucius was a Korean, China never made any significant inroads into Korea, that most of coastal China was at certain points a colony of Korea, that all of west Japan was a Korean colony during the time of Silla and Baekje, Korea was never part of the tributary system or was merely lying the entire time they were in it, and the East emulated Korea instead of China. The worst part of this is that most of the time its a South Korean, not a North Korean, stating this. Thankfully I've only had the distinct pleasure of discussing this with a small number (around 5) over the years.

I know, he is good guy and maybe one of few who has very extensive knowledge about East Asia and very good understanding of the East Asian state's dynamics.
Actually Korea was great power of East Asia during Goguryeo and had great influence on Japanese till XII century. If not Silla assistance to Tang, the Goguryeo might still withstand (while they might need a lot of luck) and Korean history might go very differently. We well could have seen Korean Manchuria instead of Chinese one. I'm more of pro-Korean than you think.
 

scholar

Banned
Actually Korea was great power of East Asia during Goguryeo and had great influence on Japanese till XII century. If not Silla assistance to Tang, the Goguryeo might still withstand (while they might need a lot of luck) and Korean history might go very differently. We well could have seen Korean Manchuria instead of Chinese one. I'm more of pro-Korean than you think.
It was certainly a strong regional power, but being a great power implies a certain amount of reach it just didn't have.

Japan was most heavily influenced by the Chinese at this time more so than the Koreans, copying Chinese characters and modelling their cities after them. In addition Confucianism, Chinese cultural perceptions, and dress drastically altered the country. Korea certainly had a strong influence, but it wasn't the strongest.

A partial Korean Manchuria is more than possible, but there's a bit of a logistics problem for Manchuria to be totally dominated by Korean. Even when Korean influence was at its height it operated its own tributary system and exerted very little direct control in the center and north.

Its fine to be pro-something. I have a bit of bias in me myself.
 
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The Chinese themselves were known to bow to barbarian peoples when they were too hurt or defeated, and they themselves regularly sent envoys to powerful barbarians in order to influence and play politics with them. The Ming actually propped up the Manchus to be their guards and stewards, a situation that has a number of analogs in their own past such as with the southern Xiongnu. These were to ward off immediate military threats and to secure their borders.

Such would not be the case with distant barbarian islands, because such was not the case throughout their entire history. You need to significantly change things for that to happen.

Yes, and I agreed that it would be difficult for either Korea or China to set their sights further south unless there was a major impetus for doing so. In this case, Japan's gradual explorations and access to a significantly increased amount of resources over time would potentially perk it's neighbors' interest and possibly reform their military after Japan begins to invest more resources into its armed forces. However, the exact details would depend on the specific chain of events, and would be largely uncertain.

Fair enough, however I would suggest that the Imjin War doesn't have to necessarily be butterflied away, merely its execution or perhaps the internal power structure of the Toyotomi.

That's fine, although significant changes still need to be made.

Questin: why?

Both of us have, over the topics, commented on various ways for China and Korea to look outward and compete with Europe. All of these revolved around internal changes: be it cultural, economical, or even political. None of them had it occur as a natural product of a change occurring in Japan. While both Korea and China recognized Japan as above most other states, it was still a lesser entity to them.

Again: its possible, but I'm not sure I see this occurring without something making this happen. How lesser entities dealt with barbarians was of no concern to China unless other factors already made them their concern. That would suggest that Japan would have free reign until it does something very stupid, by then the gap may be large enough for Japan to win.

Again, there are multiple possibilities and outcomes to consider, but Japan's potential explorations and incursions into areas much further south over decades, if not centuries, along with the resulting butterflies, theoretically could be significant enough to shift Chinese and Korean mindsets over time.

While I do not deny that those problems would be difficult when faced, any issues Japan would have are magnified many times greater for the Europeans given the vast difference in strain when it comes to logistics.

True, but Japan would be limited in many aspects as well, so the actual outcome would probably be unknown.

Actually he is full of Korean Patriotism, and always overrate Koreans while underrate others. It is what he is doing. So no need to convince him. He won't listen what you say. in order to make him agree with you is to do Koreans Superpower... ;)

There were a handful of members interested in Korea on this forum who joined before me, and some were banned for espousing radical views. In most cases, I actually try to argue that Korea's situation should not be drastically different from IOTL after 668 or so, and I've actually argued multiple times that it would have been extremely difficult for Korea to industrialize after Westerners began to visit, as the political structure after 1650 was more concerned about isolation than learning more about the outside world. You're actually confusing my viewpoints concerning the situation before 1392, when Korea had the potential to expand further into Manchuria given very specific circumstances, and after, when its borders were mostly stabilized, except for a small possibility during Gwanghaegun's reign, but that would also require PoD's beforehand.

He's actually not that bad. He has a bias towards Korea, but everyone has some bias to one state or another and has on more than few occasions provided an excellent debate that educated me in some way.

If you want real bias find a Korean revisionist. At that point if you don't admit that Korean civilization spawned East Asian civilization, if not the world, then you obviously don't know what you are talking about. That, amongst other things, that Confucius was a Korean, China never made any significant inroads into Korea, that most of coastal China was at certain points a colony of Korea, that all of west Japan was a Korean colony during the time of Silla and Baekje, Korea was never part of the tributary system or was merely lying the entire time they were in it, and the East emulated Korea instead of China. The worst part of this is that most of the time its a South Korean, not a North Korean, stating this. Thankfully I've only had the distinct pleasure of discussing this with a small number (around 5) over the years.

Well, for one, I don't think any of us, have had significant contacts, if any, with North Koreans, and I've personally never talked to any. Anyway, people who espouse these viewpoints tend to be a very small minority, and are generally rejected by mainstream historians, so they aren't believed for the most part.

It was certainly a strong regional power, but being a great power implies a certain amount of reach it just didn't have.

Japan was most heavily influenced by the Chinese at this time more so than the Koreans, copying Chinese characters and modelling their cities after them. In addition Confucianism, Chinese cultural perceptions, and dress drastically altered the country. Korea certainly had a strong influence, but it wasn't the strongest.

A partial Korean Manchuria is more than possible, but there's a bit of a logistics problem for Manchuria to be totally dominated by Korean. Even when Korean influence was at its height it operated its own tributary system and exerted very little direct control in the center and north.

Its fine to be pro-something. I have a bit of bias in me myself.

There's a large difference between Korea before and after 668. Goguryeo maintained a tributary system for centuries before eventually absorbing many of its neighbors around 350-450 in order to facilitate the assimilation process, and retaining them until 668. This overarching influence manifested itself when Balhae was reestablished in 698 among people of varying ethnicities and regions, although the original aristocracy had ceased to exist. However, any attempts to expand influence after Balhae's fall in 926 would be extremely limited. In addition, Chinese culture began to filter in after the Han initially established the four commanderies in 108 BC, but the underlying culture generally remained intact, and it was not until after 668 that Chinese influences began to be adopted on a widespread basis, although it was initially tilted toward Buddhism.

After Joseon had been established, though, the state widely adopted Confucianism in order to counter Buddhism's influence, and began to actively participate in the tributary system, giving outsiders the perception that Korea was always loyal to China, although this was not necessarily true beforehand.
 

scholar

Banned
Yes, and I agreed that it would be difficult for either Korea or China to set their sights further south unless there was a major impetus for doing so. In this case, Japan's gradual explorations and access to a significantly increased amount of resources over time would potentially perk it's neighbors' interest and possibly reform their military after Japan begins to invest more resources into its armed forces. However, the exact details would depend on the specific chain of events, and would be largely uncertain.
Which is the primary source of my skepticism. I never had a problem with the possibility, merely the feeling that it was a natural outcome.

Again, there are multiple possibilities and outcomes to consider, but Japan's potential explorations and incursions into areas much further south over decades, if not centuries, along with the resulting butterflies, theoretically could be significant enough to shift Chinese and Korean mindsets over time.
If we have such an extensive timetable then I have no doubt it could. Yet when it finally does happen they will spend most of the time playing catch-up and not able to compete for decades after. Especially given the nature of their fleets which are river and coastal based.

True, but Japan would be limited in many aspects as well, so the actual outcome would probably be unknown.
Japan would have more or less every advantage when it comes to strategic position, logistics, and numbers. It would ultimately come down to a very simple thing: are Japanese ships of even half the quality of European ones in terms of firepower and carrying capacity? If the answer is yes then the outcome is not unknown. The lag in response time if a great deal larger for the Europeans than the Japanese, and their ability to send reinforcements and ships is far more limited. All issues Japan would have here are magnified many times over for the Europeans.

Now there is always an unknown factor at play, I just don't think its that big of one here. Had this been in the late 18th, early 19th century then the unknown is much larger. By the time the Suez is operational and British Raj is in place then Japan has very little room and a very short rope for expansionism.

Well, for one, I don't think any of us, have had significant contacts, if any, with North Koreans, and I've personally never talked to any. Anyway, people who espouse these viewpoints tend to be a very small minority, and are generally rejected by mainstream historians, so they aren't believed for the most part.
I might not have, but people who have those views are too common from my own anecdotal viewpoint.
 
Which is the primary source of my skepticism. I never had a problem with the possibility, merely the feeling that it was a natural outcome.

That's fine, as we're just approaching the same issue from different angles.

If we have such an extensive timetable then I have no doubt it could. Yet when it finally does happen they will spend most of the time playing catch-up and not able to compete for decades after. Especially given the nature of their fleets which are river and coastal based.

It depends on the details, but if various states from East Asia and Europe all begin to contribute, then the picture will become more complicated over time.

Japan would have more or less every advantage when it comes to strategic position, logistics, and numbers. It would ultimately come down to a very simple thing: are Japanese ships of even half the quality of European ones in terms of firepower and carrying capacity? If the answer is yes then the outcome is not unknown. The lag in response time if a great deal larger for the Europeans than the Japanese, and their ability to send reinforcements and ships is far more limited. All issues Japan would have here are magnified many times over for the Europeans.

Now there is always an unknown factor at play, I just don't think its that big of one here. Had this been in the late 18th, early 19th century then the unknown is much larger. By the time the Suez is operational and British Raj is in place then Japan has very little room and a very short rope for expansionism.

Yes, but I also don't think that Japan will begin to expand in multiple directions into unknown and spread out locations by 1600 either, and taking Taiwan and/or the Philippines, while technically possible, will risk antagonizing China and/or Spain, so it will probably be cautious in its initial attempts. Significant explorations will probably not occur until 1650-1700, based on how they handle Hokkaido and the Ryukyus. As a result, by the time that Japan begins to consolidate its possessions around 1750, the European powers would probably have staked enough claims to challenge its influence, not to mention that China and Korea could be potential wild cards by then as well.

I might not have, but people who have those views are too common from my own anecdotal viewpoint.

Unless you talked to more than 10 people who claimed many, if not all, of the views that you previously mentioned, and also cited extensively from numerous reliable primary and secondary sources in order to firmly back up their claims, I honestly don't think that it makes much of a difference. In addition, people's viewpoints can change over time, so you should probably give them leeway for improvement. For example, when I first joined this site, my research was extremely limited, and I was more willing to throw out ideas, but as I began to do research more in-depth and began gathering viewpoints from different angles, my opinions began to gradually change after 1-2 years or so.
 

scholar

Banned
Yes, but I also don't think that Japan will begin to expand in multiple directions into unknown and spread out locations by 1600 either, and taking Taiwan and/or the Philippines, while technically possible, will risk antagonizing China and/or Spain, so it will probably be cautious in its initial attempts. Significant explorations will probably not occur until 1650-1700, based on how they handle Hokkaido and the Ryukyus. As a result, by the time that Japan begins to consolidate its possessions around 1750, the European powers would probably have staked enough claims to challenge its influence, not to mention that China and Korea could be potential wild cards by then as well.

Unless you talked to more than 10 people who claimed many, if not all, of the views that you previously mentioned, and also cited extensively from numerous reliable primary and secondary sources in order to firmly back up their claims, I honestly don't think that it makes much of a difference. In addition, people's viewpoints can change over time, so you should probably give them leeway for improvement. For example, when I first joined this site, my research was extremely limited, and I was more willing to throw out ideas, but as I began to do research more in-depth and began gathering viewpoints from different angles, my opinions began to gradually change after 1-2 years or so.
China wasn't antagonized enough to take out a dutch garrison that could be overrun by the remnants of a remnant led by the Koxinga with little to no retribution against them from the Dutch after they were taken over by pirates, essentially. The Shimazu and the Kakizaki-Matsumae had little trouble with either Okinawa or Hokkaido, so I don't foresee any significant problems there. There's also little reason to assume that it would take until 1700 for them to reach there, these lands were not unknown. The Philipines engaged in regular trading contact with Chinese merchants and Wakou pirates had attacked there. Its not venturing out into the unknown, but going back to the places Kyushu pirates have already been visiting for a while.

I wasn't attempting to reference well reasoned individuals who are misled by modern historical revisionism, rather I was pointing to a handful (about five) people that I had encountered before on the internet that believed many, if not all, of the views that I provided in an attempt to show an example of unreasonable bias. You do not need to defend them, if you had been there you probably wouldn't have even thought to. Everyone starts out ignorant and gradually attains knowledge and understanding, but there are those that believe they start out with all the answers and can only call people misinformed or believing nationalist propaganda while arguing laughable or even genocidal viewpoints.
 

katchen

Banned
Japan against Spain. Easier than it looks

I think that we tend to make the mistake of conflating the powers of our time with the powers of the early 17th Century. Japan appears relatively weak because it could not defeat Korea. Spain appears strong because it was still at that time the strongest power in Europe. But in 1600 most of Spain's strength was confined TO Europe. And even one major Daimyo such as Tokugawa Ieyasu could have more Samurai under arms than the King of Spain.
Armies were simply larger in East Asia. Hideyoshi's mistake (if it was a mistake and his aim was not simply to get a lot of samurai killed) was to attack Korea at all. If Hideyoshi had attacked first Taiwan and then the Philippines, his daimyo would soon have found that not only were the Philippines easy pickings but that the entire Spanish American Empire was hollowed out and ripe for the picking.
Spain was able to conquer and hold the Philippines 2o years earlier because the Philippines had been divided among a number of local kings or datus. At most, the Philippines may have had maybe 3 million people, ruled over by very few Spaniards. The Japanese could have easily conquered the Philippines and then set about colonizing those islands--which would have had plenty of room for Japanese settlers. But not before they discovered a very important fact about the Spanish and the Philippines.
If any of you have read Charles Mann's work 1593, you will have read that Spain's trade in Chinese tea and silks exceeded Portugals even though Spain had to rely on Chinese merchants coming to the Philippines as intermediaries. The reason for this was that Spain had a commodity in aboundance that the Chinese government needed. Silver from the mines of Potosi (bolivia) and Zacatecas, Tlaxcala, Guantajuto and Zacact4ecas in Mexico with which the Ming could pay their bureaucrats and soldiers and inflate their currency. The Japanese could conquer the Philippines. But the Spanish could simply meet the Chinse merchants someplace else. Suluwesi maybe.
The second thing they would learn quickly enough would be that between smallpox and other diseases and the way the Spanish had run the American colonies into the ground, the local population in all of New Spain (Mexico and Central America) was no higher than 1 million people, mostly surviving Indiians and some mestizos with maybe 100,000 of them being whites and maybe 30,000 of them soldiers. South American population down to only half a million. And that was where the silver is. So build an armada of ships that are large enough and strong enough to cross the Pacific. Start a few interim colonies on the West coast of North America, maybe at Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay if they find it in the fog--definitely at San Diego Bay. And then land an army in Mexico probably at what is now Mazatlan or Puerto Vallarta , march in and take over, working on down the coast all the way to Chile. That would give Hideyoshi more than enough territory to keep all of his samurai busy developing and resettling Japanese peasants in these lands and launch Japan on it's way to being a major world power with Japan a language as ubiquitous as Spanish. And Japan would get the models for those ships from the Manila galleon to Will Adams's ship der Liefde, which will be blowing in almost shipwre4cked in 1600
 
Building such an armada - particularly one large enough for a significant army - is far harder than it sounds.
 
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