Japan, 1941: "Attacking Pearl Harbor is a bad idea;

"How do we contunue the war in China without losing face?"


Two steps that might have worked for them:

a) Strike south but only against Britain and the Dutch Indies.

b) Attack America as well, to neutralise the Philippines but don't attack Pearl Harbour. [Also make sure you get the dow in on time.

a) would pay big if the US stayed neutral. If it didn't you still have the US having to declare war, which will avoid much of the almost rabid hatred the US displayed as a result of the Japanese attacks. Gives much better chance of a negotiated peace later on especially if you inflict a shattering defeat early on.

This is possible in either a) or b) because, without Pearl the US will still have a battlefleet. As such they will probably centre their operations around the capital ships and may well be pressurised into trying to relieve at least Wake and Guam if not the Philippines. [Know this was not the formal naval plan which assumed a slower approach but plans have an habit of not surviving the outbreak of war].

As such there is a good chance they will be defeated in such an encounter and lose a lot of ships. Those losses will be permanent as the ships will go down in deep water rather than a shallow anchorage and it will mean heavier casualties. Especially if the war is unpopular in the US and/or there is seen to be a need for concentrating on the threat in Europe its a longish shot but the Japanese might just get the negotiated peace they want. [Would still have the problem of China and very poor relations with the west].

Even if eventually defeated, which is still most likely if the US enters the conflict, Japan is likely to get more favourable terms.

Steve
 

sanusoi

Banned
ooh.... this is so funny. Look if they decide to back off, then they are going to come under more increased pressure to pull out of China or run of oil. However, there is an ATL that hasn't been explored.

What if before the Second World War started, the Japanese brought oil form the Soviet Union. If they could keep the good relations and agree to a deal in dividing China, then you would have a stronger alliance and a reason for the Japanese not to start the Pacific war.

P.S. For those out there who are frightened that the Germans will escape the wrath of the United States. Do not worry because eventually the Germans will sink a ship that has really important Americans on it and then the USA will declare war on the Germans.
 
Stalin was worried about the Japanese just as much as the Germans so selling them oil, so they can get a stronger foot hold in asia is not something he would go for.
 
Stalin was worried about the Japanese just as much as the Germans so selling them oil, so they can get a stronger foot hold in asia is not something he would go for.
At this point, Stalin doesn't exactly have much choice. The minor detail of a nation-threatening German invasion, perhaps?
 

Kiwiguy

Banned
Strike south but only against Britain and the Dutch Indies.

That wouldn't have worked because prior to Japan attacking Singapore, there was in place a mutual defence pact between the Dutch, British and Americans.

What might have worked was if Japan relented on the anti comintern pact and allowed Soviet Russia to join the Axis.

Hitler was for this but Japan opposed it from what I have read.
 
Could the Soviet Union at this time, actually get oil to Japan?

I'm not sure this is realistically possible. If you take OTL resources and what not into account, yes.

JMO, but Siberia was a backward poophole( for decentness's sake). I don't think the Soviets could've sent any meaningful amount of oil or anything else to sway the Japanese to change thier plans. They were lucky to get a non-agression pact.

2 cents.
 
Of course blackmail could work
Stalin "We won't give you oil, Hirohito"
Hirohito 'Well we didn't invade you in 1941... we just want a fee"
Now there is a less likely scenario. Japan will break relations with Germany if the USSR give them oil. Japan and Germany were allies of convenience remember they shared few secrets and their alliance was strained after Barbarossa.
 
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