Japan 1936 attacks Indochina instead

[lionhead]

So, what if instead of attacking China in 1936 the Japanese invade French Indochina? They would succeed of course but, like with Manchuria could they prevent further hostilities with France? What about Siam?

I think it would make their position against China better, in OTL they got the region from the Vichy regime, but by then they where already inland.

And what if France declares war and the UK will join them, will they win? If they don't use their army for the attack on China are they ready to take over Malaysia, Borneo and Hong Kong? Would the Chinese respond? How will the USA?

Is their fleet in 1936 strong enough to take on the British fleet?

Hong Kong i find interesting, can they attack it from the sea succesfully? Also, how would the Chinese respond and could Japan use Hong Kong against China later on?

All this popped into my mind while working today. Gonna get another thread started about another thing with Japan.

thanks in advance.

 

[Pangur]

A straight French-Japanese fight would I think end up in a Japanese victory. I can't quite see how the French could project power that far with no local bases. The game changer would be the reaction of the UK and the US. Would either of them shrug their shoulders and do nothing? I would think not. The UK would take sides and I think the US would start sanctions against Japan earlier

 

[tonsofun]

In OTL they convinced the military government of Siam that they were liberating Asia and the two became allies. But that never happened until 1938. Since the Japanese are defeating the French, then they have the capability to defeat Siam too.
If the Uk joins in then I imagine it will go as per OTL. That is until the UK and France can get their main force in.

 

[Pangur]

If the Uk joins in then I imagine it will go as per OTL. That is until the UK and France can get their main force in.

I am pretty sure that the RN had a large enough force in the region (based out Singapore) What I don't know is how large a fleet the French would have had in the region. My guess would be that it would not have been that large and based in Indochina.

The first think that crossed my mind when I read your OP was that the French would have ended up like the Russians in 1905 and assuming that the UK stay out of it I am inclined to stick with that view

 

[lionhead]

But its 1936, nobody is prepared for war. Certainly not the French. The Biritsh might get ships and men on the way but 3 years later they get in trouble in Europe, they might decide to wait in the Pacific and focus on Germany. That way Japan has free game in the Pacific, untill they attack PH as USA isn't going to do anything untill then.

In that time, with Perhaps all of Malaysia and Indonesia in hands they have a better chance against the Chinese, and a bigger fleet by 1941 with all those extra resources and oil(North of Borneo).

 

[Pangur]

But its 1936, nobody is prepared for war. Certainly not the French. The Biritsh might get ships and men on the way but 3 years later they get in trouble in Europe, they might decide to wait in the Pacific and focus on Germany. That way Japan has free game in the Pacific, untill they attack PH as USA isn't going to do anything untill then.

In that time, with Perhaps all of Malaysia and Indonesia in hands they have a better chance against the Chinese, and a bigger fleet by 1941 with all those extra resources and oil(North of Borneo).

You have a number of different points here.

Granted nobody is ready for war however that would be even more so true for France than the UK who had a large naval presence in the area.

The hypothetical attack in the OP would I suggest have the French and the UK rearm faster or more to point start earlier. Maybe even to the point where a German attack in 1940 has been butterflied away.

The last part of your post would seem to suggest that the Japanese would attack British held areas. That been the case they are not going to back done and will keep fighting - bases are movee back maybe to India or Ceylon.

 

[Blackfox5]

The Japanese war in China happened because the government had little authority over the army, and the army created an incident that led to war which the government couldn't stop.

An attack on French Indochina would need to be premeditated, as it's not possible for some radical destroyer captain to initiate a conflict. It'd be a decision made at the highest level of government or the navy. Japan would gain very little of taking over Indochina given what it would lose.

A Japanese attack on Japan practically invites the British Empire to enter the war as well. The Franco-British relatioship was up and down between the wars, but an unprovoked attack on Japan against a European colony will likely cause Britain to enter the war (perhaps after an initial peace effort by diplomacy). It's also possible that the Dutch will enter the war, or at least give the French and British logistical aid.

It's also going to change things in the US. US won't enter the war, but it'll certainly begin to do things against Japan that it historically did, but much later.

You've also just given Nationalist China a huge break. It now has an extra year or two which is crucial. By 1938 they'll have 30 German trained divisions (instead of the 8 they had when war began in 1937) and completed other defensive plans. Furthermore, with Japan less of a threat to China, the Xi'an Incident may never happen, and the CCP be destroyed. In any case, Japan's window of opportunity has ended. Chiang Kai Shek will be emboldened, and at some point will begin using Japan's distraction in China while it's fighting a war against the Europeans to begin reasserting China's rights against any of Japan's extra-territorial concessions. Japan will either then be forced to accept China's demands or bring it into a war where it will find willing European allies. If the war continues to drag on, it's probably only a matter of time before Chinag joins and launches an attack in Manchuria, but this probably won't happen until at least 1939.

In 1936 carrier aviation is still in its infancy. There's very few carrier monoplanes. The Brewster Buffalo is state of the art. Japan has no advantage there. It'll be naval battles of battleships with carriers just beginning to show what they are capable of. I don't rate Japan's chances very high in this scenario.

This will end very badly for Japan. It will lose a significant portion of its navy. It'll likely lose various privleges in China, possibly Manchukuo. Amphibious doctrine is not well developed at the time, so it should be able to keep most of its Pacific islands, and not be threatened with invasion. But if Taiwan is not adequately defended, then an Allied blockade might weaken it enough that the British and French can land troops safely there.

 

[Blackfox5]

I am pretty sure that the RN had a large enough force in the region (based out Singapore) What I don't know is how large a fleet the French would have had in the region. My guess would be that it would not have been that large and based in Indochina.

The first think that crossed my mind when I read your OP was that the French would have ended up like the Russians in 1905 and assuming that the UK stay out of it I am inclined to stick with that view

France had maybe a cruiser and a few minor escort ships in Indochina. No significant opposition to the initial Japanese moves. But it also means the French could summon its major fleet safely and set out together, probably refueling in a British or Australian base before fighting the Japanese. And they probably aren't alone, but with a significant British fleet with them.

The Washington Naval Treaty kept French tonnage way below Japanese ones. France would not be able to defeat Japan militarily alone. The British would need to join.

 

[Kooluk Swordsman]

In OTL they convinced the military government of Siam that they were liberating Asia and the two became allies. But that never happened until 1938. Since the Japanese are defeating the French, then they have the capability to defeat Siam too.
If the Uk joins in then I imagine it will go as per OTL. That is until the UK and France can get their main force in.

If by convinced you mean "Ally with us or we invade."

That alliance was made at the point of a bayonet.

 

[CalBear]

So, what if instead of attacking China in 1936 the Japanese invade French Indochina? They would succeed of course but, like with Manchuria could they prevent further hostilities with France? What about Siam?

I think it would make their position against China better, in OTL they got the region from the Vichy regime, but by then they where already inland.

And what if France declares war and the UK will join them, will they win? If they don't use their army for the attack on China are they ready to take over Malaysia, Borneo and Hong Kong? Would the Chinese respond? How will the USA?

Is their fleet in 1936 strong enough to take on the British fleet?

Hong Kong i find interesting, can they attack it from the sea succesfully? Also, how would the Chinese respond and could Japan use Hong Kong against China later on?

All this popped into my mind while working today. Gonna get another thread started about another thing with Japan.

thanks in advance.

In 1936? The Japanese couldn't project force that far out. The IJN was smaller, the carrier aircraft we much less capable, and they would be a LONG way from home.

They get curbstomped.

 

[Blackfox5]

But its 1936, nobody is prepared for war. Certainly not the French. The Biritsh might get ships and men on the way but 3 years later they get in trouble in Europe, they might decide to wait in the Pacific and focus on Germany. That way Japan has free game in the Pacific, untill they attack PH as USA isn't going to do anything untill then.

In that time, with Perhaps all of Malaysia and Indonesia in hands they have a better chance against the Chinese, and a bigger fleet by 1941 with all those extra resources and oil(North of Borneo).

There are so many butterflies this would cause that we can't say how this impacts WWII.

First, both Britain and France begin rearming in 1936. Possibly before Hitler occupies the Rhineland, certainly before Germany annexes Austria or threatens Czechoslovakia. The French and British partnership is likely much stronger, and facing an actual war, they treat things much more seriously than they did IOTL. Hitler may not get the breaks he did because Britain and France often did not work well together.

Second, the war is likely over before any September 1939 scenario. Britain, France, Netherlands, and the US control the world oil supply. All four powers now have reason to cut Japan off to force it into peace.

Third, if at some point Japan goes after China, China is likely to get a lot more help from the Western Allies than they ever did IOTL.

Fourth, it is highly unlikely the Japanese will have Malaysia, Borneo, Indochina, or Indonesia in 1941, assuming this war is even continuing by then. IOTL when Japan attacked, the Western Allies were in a major war in Europe, the Germans have overrun Western Europe, they had stripped the East of most things of value, and could not concentrate forces there. ITL, this is the only war. Germany has not rearmed and has no navy. The Italians are not going to start anything. The economies of not just the British Empire, but France and the Netherlands are going to be rearming. Japan is going to get crushed after some initial successes.

By 1939, the British and French (and possibly the Dutch) are going to have a modern army and navy, tested in battle with a lot of things worked out. Even if WW2 somehow happens on schedule and in the same way, that war is going to be fought very differently.

 

[MattII]

In 1936 the closest base to FIc was Taiwan, which makes any attack a bit of a stretch, especially since the next closest Japanese base is Korea.

 

[Wendell]

Am I the only one who thinks that if something like this was to happen (and was adequately prepared for), China might actually side with Japan?

 

[MattII]

Since the French were funneling supplies to the Chinese through FIc (which was a major reason for their invasion in the first place), then yes, you probably are.

 

[lionhead]

In 1936 the closest base to FIc was Taiwan, which makes any attack a bit of a stretch, especially since the next closest Japanese base is Korea.

Taiwan a stretch? I think they could make it from Taiwan, which is a pretty good base to have.

Am I the only one who thinks that if something like this was to happen (and was adequately prepared for), China might actually side with Japan?

Side with the Japanese? Are you mad? Those Imperialist dogs that took Manchuria, Korea and Taiwan? Those that considder Chinese as inferior? For what reason? To betray the only countries that are actually trying ot help them? Sure in the past the UK was not very popular in China, but Chiang Kai-shek certainly wouldn't betray the country that can protect them against the Communism, Fascism and imperialism that is all around them.

 

[MattII]

Taiwan a stretch? I think they could make it from Taiwan, which is a pretty good base to have.

Still more than 900 miles as the fish swims between Tainan and Haiphong.

 

[Blackfox5]

Am I the only one who thinks that if something like this was to happen (and was adequately prepared for), China might actually side with Japan?

Why would China side with Japan? The Nationalists and Chiang were certainly sympathetic to nationalist movements in the European colonies, but China was quite aware that Japan was just as predatory as the Europeans. Japan had already seized Manchuria from China, had started various other incidents, and was trying to force China to give it one sided economic concessions. China won't be taking Japan's side at all.

Besides the Nationalist government is still too weak. Chiang does not really control many areas of China. The Nationalist Revolutionary Army is still too weak. Chiang Kai Shek will thank his lucky stars that Japan's foolish war with France has given him several years to build his army, set up his ordnance factories, and consolidate power in China.

Chiang certainly isn't a friend to Britain and France, but he has no reason to go to war with them at this time.

 

[lionhead]

Still more than 900 miles as the fish swims between Tainan and Haiphong.

Well they took an entire fleet 6000 miles just to surprise-attack a harbor. I'm sure they can handle 900 miles. The invasion shouldn't meet with much resistance. Plus the Chinese had no convoy raiders or anything to threathen the invasion fleet. Maybe a few planes, but nothing really threathening.

Hm, come to think. They might send the fe carriers they have in 1936 too Singapore or even Rangoon to sink the British fleet in port... or is that silly?

 

[MattII]

Since in 1936 all the Japanese have in terms of carriers are Hōshō, Akagi, Kaga and Ryūjō, and they only attacked, not occupied Hawaii...

 

[Catspoke]

I imagine the British and Dutch would at least do a full trade emargo, probably the United States too, all of which would find this very threatening. This would be straight up Major Power on Major Power agression, even the League of Nations would support an emargo which would leave ther Japanese tight on oil soon.

The French from Madagasagar, New Caledonia and such places would commerce raid with whomever is still willing to trade with the Japanese and would be able to refuel forom USA/Britain/Dutch places without many people checking or worrying about rules. Britain would probably let the French use airbases in Malaysia to stage in reinforcement planes.

If Siam was dumb enough to join in, Britain would just occupy the country to protect Malaysia.

Better for the Japanese to just not attack China as like this TL, but at least wait until September 39 to try something like this, better yet July 40.