Janpans Twenty One Demands Refused?

Searched around and failed to locate anything previous on this.

Whatcircumstances would lead to Chinas government refusing out right the 21 Demands of Japan. ... and of course what would be the consequences?

My first reflex is British pressure would cause Japan to back down, but...
 
They were in 1916 or 1917? Maybe a bit of background might help.

Gut hunch is that the British need the Japanese more than vice versa in 1917 so the opposite - the Entente snarls at China to accept the demands?
 
The 21 demands were made in 1915.

If they were rejected by Chinese government, the public might view Yuan Shikai as a strong leader. When Yuan declared himself as an emperor in December 1915, he might have more supporters.

On other hand, Japan would do everything they could to overthrow Yuan like more funding to Sun Yetsen and other warlords.

China would be in civil war like the real time line.
 
The Brits were blindsided by the Japanese action. They did think they needed the Japanese as a Ally, but we're also upset with them. It appears, & I could be wrong, the US was angry as well. Wilson was busy turning Mexico into a disaster, but had politics in the White House played out differently, he might have gone further opposing Japan
 
Searched around and failed to locate anything previous on this.

Whatcircumstances would lead to Chinas government refusing out right the 21 Demands of Japan. ... and of course what would be the consequences?

My first reflex is British pressure would cause Japan to back down, but...

They would be facing another First Sino-Japanese War scenario - expect blockades, more invasions of Chinese territories, etc. Considering how the US/Britain have their hands essentially tied due to WWI(the US obviously significantly less so) Japan will freely use the opportunity to romp around continental China.
 
That would sour Japans relations with the US and Britain a lot faster. I wonder how dependant Japan was on the Brits for loans in 1915-17? Or the US?
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
If they were rejected by Chinese government, the public might view Yuan Shikai as a strong leader. When Yuan declared himself as an emperor in December 1915, he might have more supporters.

I have seen it argued that one of the reasons Yuan declared himself Emperor was an attempt to reassert his power after the slip that had happened by conceding to Japan's demands. If that's true, then perhaps Yuan doesn't attempt to ascend the throne, and some of the rebellion against his authority is quelled.

That would sour Japans relations with the US and Britain a lot faster. I wonder how dependant Japan was on the Brits for loans in 1915-17? Or the US?

This is actually a period of major economic shift in Japan, much as it was in the United States -- as nations not having to burn their blood and treasure in vast quantities on the killing fields of Europe, they were moving out of being debtor nations by selling to the warring powers. Indeed, by 1916 they were loaning money to Japan; by 1917, building warships for France, in a dramatic shift from just a few years earlier when all the Japanese warships came out of foreign yards.
 
So, if Japan sends armies romping about China its going to be borrowing money some where to cover the tax revenue shortfalls? If Britain & the US make no loans what are the alternatives?
 
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