James V and Mary of Guise have surviving male issue.

So yes, Seymour dominating the early regency for Edward VI, would he propose this marriage? Or would that be Dudley?

Which one is closest to (and being pressured by) Henry/Frances Grey? Though it's worth noting that Henry might be less influential ITTL if butterflies keep one or both of Charles Brandon's sons by Catherine Willoughby alive and prevent the Greys getting the Dukedom of Suffolk.

Given the above (theoretical) for the Scottish line, Edward VI will wed Jane Grey (b fall 1536 or spring 1537) on his fourteenth birthday (12 Oct 1551), with Jane giving birth to Edward, Prince of Wales on 1 Nov 1552; Edward's fatal illness - because of his wife's loving care, is delayed until March 1554, with him dying in the fall of that year. By then, however, Jane has given birth to Henry, Duke of York (10 Sep 1553) and Jane, Princess Royal (9 August 1554). Now we have a King born in lawful matrimony who is the son of Henry VIII's indisputably legal wife Jane *nee Seymour*. And a regency.

How robust was Jane's health? Because giving birth to her first kid at 15, and then two more in the following two years, could kill her.

Would Henry Grey be a shoe-in for the regency, as the kid's grandfather? Presumably with Dudley nearby.

It's kinda irrelevant to the issue at hand, but how does being aunts to the king as well as 4/5/6/7th in the line of succession (depending on how you want to count Mary and Elizabeth) affect the marital prospects of the younger Grey sisters (keeping in mind Mary Grey is still a hunchback)?

I presume no Queen Mary means Norfolk dies in the Tower? Does Courtenay stay in there too?
 
Which one is closest to (and being pressured by) Henry/Frances Grey? Though it's worth noting that Henry might be less influential ITTL if butterflies keep one or both of Charles Brandon's sons by Catherine Willoughby alive and prevent the Greys getting the Dukedom of Suffolk.



How robust was Jane's health? Because giving birth to her first kid at 15, and then two more in the following two years, could kill her.

Would Henry Grey be a shoe-in for the regency, as the kid's grandfather? Presumably with Dudley nearby.

It's kinda irrelevant to the issue at hand, but how does being aunts to the king as well as 4/5/6/7th in the line of succession (depending on how you want to count Mary and Elizabeth) affect the marital prospects of the younger Grey sisters (keeping in mind Mary Grey is still a hunchback)?

I presume no Queen Mary means Norfolk dies in the Tower? Does Courtenay stay in there too?

A good point re the greys and the possible survival of the Brandon's that was something if not thought of that would be very interesting to explore. How powerful would the Brandon's be in this scenario?

I imagine the grey sisters marriage prospects are vastly improved. And that yes Howard remains in the tower
 
Alright interesting, would they risk using two potential valuable bargaining tools with the same kingdom?

And okay, so do you not think the King would convert then?

Good point. I guess it depends on which other countries are interested. Mary's appeal to Henry VIII was that she was a Queen and therefore provided the opportunity to link the English and Scottish thrones. If she was just a princess with two healthy brothers then her appeal might have been diminished.
 
Good point. I guess it depends on which other countries are interested. Mary's appeal to Henry VIII was that she was a Queen and therefore provided the opportunity to link the English and Scottish thrones. If she was just a princess with two healthy brothers then her appeal might have been diminished.

This is very true, do you think they'd send Mary off to Lorraine? Or perhaps look for a marriage into one of the Austrian Habsburg branches? Or would that break with the alliance system? Perhaps Portugal?
 
This is very true, do you think they'd send Mary off to Lorraine? Or perhaps look for a marriage into one of the Austrian Habsburg branches? Or would that break with the alliance system? Perhaps Portugal?

I'm not sure. Bearing in mind that Scotland was a fairly minor European power I think it would be a question of grabbing the best available option. If the Dauphin was offered they probably would have grabbed him. If not then Lorraine would probably do, though a Habsburg might be more appealing if one was available and interested. I don't know about Portugal but if it offered the possibility of Mary becoming a Queen then they might well have been tempted.
 
I'm not sure. Bearing in mind that Scotland was a fairly minor European power I think it would be a question of grabbing the best available option. If the Dauphin was offered they probably would have grabbed him. If not then Lorraine would probably do, though a Habsburg might be more appealing if one was available and interested. I don't know about Portugal but if it offered the possibility of Mary becoming a Queen then they might well have been tempted.
This is very true, something that James VI will be determined to change. Hmm Francis seems most likely though Mary as a future holy Roman empress is interesting
 
Another point as the Faroe Islands enable control of oretty much all North Sea trade to the nordics could Scotland acquire them through diplomatic or war means? If so what consequences could this have?
 
On James V's death the Earl of Arran (who was the nearest heir to the Scot's throne in default of the House of Stuart) will become regent for the infant James VI.
In OTL he held the regency until 1554 though he was in conflict with Cardinal Beaton (who himself had angled to be named regent).
Marie of Guise didn't attempt to take control until the 1550s and that was after suggesting her illegitimate stepson first and it was mainly at the urging of her family in France.

France's only interest in Scotland - a third-rate and relatively poor power - was its proximity to England.

In Protestant terms - nothing much changes though you will avoid the Protestant gain in power during the final years of Mary of Guise's regency as the King will be of age by then in this tl. A long minority means conflict and the perfect setting for religious divisions to grow - particularly if the English interfere)

(In OTL Mary of Guises - pro-French policy saw her being urged to take a stronger line against Protestants by France following Elizabeth's accession in England and that resulted in them reacting against her rule hence their move to take full political control - all of that is now avoided)

Assuming King James VI is Catholic but willing to tread the balance between the two sides - then Scotland in the 1560s might be more politically settled but Scots regency's were notoriously difficult and usually the new monarch once he came of age had loads of scores to settle - another issue might be how the new young King gets on with his protestant illegitimate half-brother and the rest of his peers.

You might get a country nominally Catholic but with a toleration of religious dissent but any crack-down by a Catholic King will be met with resistance and after 1558 the King might face a strong Protestant nobility backed by English money. His brother might convert giving Protestants a figure head for example (not unusual for Stewart Royal brother's to fall out) - or he might have a Protestant leaning himself and accept the Kirk alienating his Catholic French relations in the process but making himself far more popular with his cousin south of the border.

In marital terms - Mary Stuart is not that good a match for the French Dauphin any more - the English might be keen still but Henry VIII also was reported to have considered her mother the widowed Scots Queen for himself - likely Mary stays at home in the royal nursery with her brother's and the rough wooing never happens - her fate will largely depend on her brother by the time she is of an age to marry.

Henri II will be more interested in keeping James VI on side during the reign of the pro-Spanish Mary Tudor so he might be offered one of Henri's numerous daughter's as a wife and perhaps lose out when a better offer reaches the French court.

James might consider himself the legal heir to England on the death of Mary Tudor without issue so either a failed conflict or a game of cat and mouse similar to Elizabeth's initial relationship with Mary - If James is Catholic then the English Council will put even more pressure on Elizabeth to up and marry someone.

I don't think an alternate Scots succession changes the English situation much at all - they will continue to try and browbeat Scotland into being a subservient power - I am sure Henry VIII's in the 1540s will offer a number of matches to try and get the Scots firmly in his camp probably with no success.

Edward VI will probably also be considered for the Princess Mary Stuart by both sides and it might get as far as a betrothal but probably all it will be (she will only be 11 at Edward VI's death). Mary Tudor will ultimately succeed and despite their shared religion will probably still pursue her disastrous pro-Spanish policy - a King north of the border allied with France might cause her more difficulty than his mother did in OTL - though she might try and buy them off with vague offers of marriage to her sister Elizabeth without any great intention of following through.

The biggest change will be whether the House of Stuart still succeeds if Elizabeth still dies without issue.
 
On James V's death the Earl of Arran (who was the nearest heir to the Scot's throne in default of the House of Stuart) will become regent for the infant James VI.
In OTL he held the regency until 1554 though he was in conflict with Cardinal Beaton (who himself had angled to be named regent).
Marie of Guise didn't attempt to take control until the 1550s and that was after suggesting her illegitimate stepson first and it was mainly at the urging of her family in France.

France's only interest in Scotland - a third-rate and relatively poor power - was its proximity to England.

In Protestant terms - nothing much changes though you will avoid the Protestant gain in power during the final years of Mary of Guise's regency as the King will be of age by then in this tl. A long minority means conflict and the perfect setting for religious divisions to grow - particularly if the English interfere)

(In OTL Mary of Guises - pro-French policy saw her being urged to take a stronger line against Protestants by France following Elizabeth's accession in England and that resulted in them reacting against her rule hence their move to take full political control - all of that is now avoided)

Assuming King James VI is Catholic but willing to tread the balance between the two sides - then Scotland in the 1560s might be more politically settled but Scots regency's were notoriously difficult and usually the new monarch once he came of age had loads of scores to settle - another issue might be how the new young King gets on with his protestant illegitimate half-brother and the rest of his peers.

You might get a country nominally Catholic but with a toleration of religious dissent but any crack-down by a Catholic King will be met with resistance and after 1558 the King might face a strong Protestant nobility backed by English money. His brother might convert giving Protestants a figure head for example (not unusual for Stewart Royal brother's to fall out) - or he might have a Protestant leaning himself and accept the Kirk alienating his Catholic French relations in the process but making himself far more popular with his cousin south of the border.

In marital terms - Mary Stuart is not that good a match for the French Dauphin any more - the English might be keen still but Henry VIII also was reported to have considered her mother the widowed Scots Queen for himself - likely Mary stays at home in the royal nursery with her brother's and the rough wooing never happens - her fate will largely depend on her brother by the time she is of an age to marry.

Henri II will be more interested in keeping James VI on side during the reign of the pro-Spanish Mary Tudor so he might be offered one of Henri's numerous daughter's as a wife and perhaps lose out when a better offer reaches the French court.

James might consider himself the legal heir to England on the death of Mary Tudor without issue so either a failed conflict or a game of cat and mouse similar to Elizabeth's initial relationship with Mary - If James is Catholic then the English Council will put even more pressure on Elizabeth to up and marry someone.

I don't think an alternate Scots succession changes the English situation much at all - they will continue to try and browbeat Scotland into being a subservient power - I am sure Henry VIII's in the 1540s will offer a number of matches to try and get the Scots firmly in his camp probably with no success.

Edward VI will probably also be considered for the Princess Mary Stuart by both sides and it might get as far as a betrothal but probably all it will be (she will only be 11 at Edward VI's death). Mary Tudor will ultimately succeed and despite their shared religion will probably still pursue her disastrous pro-Spanish policy - a King north of the border allied with France might cause her more difficulty than his mother did in OTL - though she might try and buy them off with vague offers of marriage to her sister Elizabeth without any great intention of following through.

The biggest change will be whether the House of Stuart still succeeds if Elizabeth still dies without issue.

Interesting, so if there is no rough wooing, would that not butterfly away James V's death entirely then? As his illness was caused as a result of the conflict south of the border no? Though wasn't that conflict a result of James ignoring Henry's suggestions of conversion? Furthermore, what makes you assume that this doesn't butterfly away Edward VI's death completely? As illness can be butterflied easily no?
 
Nope it wouldn't the conflict of 1541 came before James V's daughter was born and it was that failure that killed James V - it was simple the latest in a series of battles between the English and Scots pushed by Catholic James and his French allies against his heretic Uncle - the rough wooing began after James V's death when Mary was Queen and would continue into Edward VI's reign.

As to Edward VI - if it was TB as many now believe then it could easily still happen or you could postpone it and of course it depends whether Edward VI simply caught it in 1552/3 or already had it in his system and it developed into active TB at the point he became ill ion which case he could have been infected in childhood. A death north of the border isn't necessarily going to dictate whether Edward VI becomes ill in 1553 or not.
 
Nope it wouldn't the conflict of 1541 came before James V's daughter was born and it was that failure that killed James V - it was simple the latest in a series of battles between the English and Scots pushed by Catholic James and his French allies against his heretic Uncle - the rough wooing began after James V's death when Mary was Queen and would continue into Edward VI's reign.

As to Edward VI - if it was TB as many now believe then it could easily still happen or you could postpone it and of course it depends whether Edward VI simply caught it in 1552/3 or already had it in his system and it developed into active TB at the point he became ill ion which case he could have been infected in childhood. A death north of the border isn't necessarily going to dictate whether Edward VI becomes ill in 1553 or not.

Interesting, so if James doesn't catch whatever illness it was he caught during that particular conflict he could survive? If so how does this change things?

Very true.
 
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