James G. Blaine is shot and killed along with President Garfield in 1881

CaliGuy

Banned
What if disgruntled office seeker Charles Guiteau would have shot and killed U.S. Secretary of State James G. Blaine along with President Garfield? (Considering that Blaine was the one who personally rejected Guiteau's pleas for a government job, this doesn't appear to be particularly implausible.)

Who would the Republicans nominate in 1884 in this TL? Also, would the Republicans' 1884 nominee in this TL defeat Grover Cleveland that November?

Also, if so, how does U.S. history develop since that point in time?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Would they just stick with Arthur?
Perhaps, but Arthur's health was already failing by 1884. Thus, he might not put in the full effort which it might require for him to win the 1884 Republican nomination. Plus, there is also the issue that reformers didn't fully trust Arthur due to his Stalwart past while Stalwarts didn't trust Arthur due to his reform-minded Presidency.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Ultimately, though, even if Arthur is indeed nominated in 1884, his VP is going to become President pretty fast due to Arthur's own failing health. Thus, even if Arthur is nominated in 1884, the crucial question is this--who exactly is picked as his VP? If it's John A. Logan, then we are going to see two U.S. Presidents die in short order in late 1886, with the Senate President Pro Tempore--apparently John Sherman--becoming the new U.S. President near the end of 1886.
 
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