James, Duke of Rothesay (b. 1540) survives to adulthood

[Olena]

Per OTL, the oldest son of James V and Marie de Guise, James, Duke of Rothesay died at 11mo; however, in the event he AND his younger brother Arthur, Duke of Albany (b.1541) survive to adulthood what effects would this have? James V, Henry VIII, Mary Tudor, and Edward VI all die per OTL; also, Princess Mary is born on schedule. The Rough Wooing wouldn't take place, obviously. However, would religious conflict between Scotland and England continue under James VI?

Would Marie de Guise be able to assume the regency as Queen Mother for her son? Also, how would this influence Franco-Scots relations? Would Princess Mary Stuart still be engaged to the dauphin? Would Elisabeth of Valois be offered to James VI rather than Edward VI?

How would having another male Catholic monarch sit with the Scots? Obviously the Queen Mother, a member of the staunchly Catholic house of Guise and the wife of a Catholic king would never consent to raising her son in the Protestant faith. Also, what marriage prospects would be the most appropriate for King James, Prince Arthur, and Princess Mary?

How might this influence the inheritance of Elizabeth Tudor after her sister Mary in England?

 

[Jonathan]

1) James VI (22 May 1540– 21 April 1581) m. Princess Anna of Sweden (19 June 1545–20 March 1610)

1) James VII (1564–3 June 1634)
2) Princess Anne of Scotland (28 April 1565 – 2 October 1566)
3) Prince Robert (9 September 1566–1 October 1567)
4) Princess Anne of Scotland (17 January 1571–1 November 1621)
5) Princess Mary of Scotland (24 February 1572 – 5 March 1635);
6) Princess Elizabeth of Scotland (2 October 1573–28 July 1601)
7) Prince Arthur (26 November 1575–18 September 1611)
8) Prince John (24 November 1577 – 24 October 1601)
9) Princess Margaret of Scotland (9 June 1579 – 10 October 1579)
10) Princess Catherine of Scotland (3 August 1582 – 22 January 1595)
11) Prince Gustav (24 June 1586 – 29 September 1654)​

2) Arthur, Duke of Albany (12 April 1541–20 April 1576) m. 1567 Catherine-Marie de Guise (18 July 1551 – 5 May 1596)

3) Princess Mary of Scotland (8 December 1542–8 February 1629) m. a) 1558, Francis II of France (January 1544 – 5 December 1560) b) 1563 Francesco I de' Medici, Grand Duke of Tuscany (25 March 1541 – 19 October 1587)

1) Maria (28 February 1567–9 September 1611)
2) Francesco (20 November 1568 – 2 December 1568)
3) Anna (31 December 1569 – 19 February 1584)
4) Isabella (30 September 1571 – 8 August 1572)
5) Francesco (7 November 1572 – 14 August 1574)
6) Catherine (1575–1642) m. Henri IV in 1600.
7) Francesco (20 May 1577 – 29 March 1582)​

 

[VVD0D95]

1) James VI (22 May 1540– 21 April 1581) m. Princess Anna of Sweden (19 June 1545–20 March 1610)

1) James VII (1564–3 June 1634)
2) Princess Anne of Scotland (28 April 1565 – 2 October 1566)
3) Prince Robert (9 September 1566–1 October 1567)
4) Princess Anne of Scotland (17 January 1571–1 November 1621)
5) Princess Mary of Scotland (24 February 1572 – 5 March 1635);
6) Princess Elizabeth of Scotland (2 October 1573–28 July 1601)
7) Prince Arthur (26 November 1575–18 September 1611)
8) Prince John (24 November 1577 – 24 October 1601)
9) Princess Margaret of Scotland (9 June 1579 – 10 October 1579)
10) Princess Catherine of Scotland (3 August 1582 – 22 January 1595)
11) Prince Gustav (24 June 1586 – 29 September 1654)​

2) Arthur, Duke of Albany (12 April 1541–20 April 1576) m. 1567 Catherine-Marie de Guise (18 July 1551 – 5 May 1596)

3) Princess Mary of Scotland (8 December 1542–8 February 1629) m. a) 1558, Francis II of France (January 1544 – 5 December 1560) b) 1563 Francesco I de' Medici, Grand Duke of Tuscany (25 March 1541 – 19 October 1587)

1) Maria (28 February 1567–9 September 1611)
2) Francesco (20 November 1568 – 2 December 1568)
3) Anna (31 December 1569 – 19 February 1584)
4) Isabella (30 September 1571 – 8 August 1572)
5) Francesco (7 November 1572 – 14 August 1574)
6) Catherine (1575–1642) m. Henri IV in 1600.
7) Francesco (20 May 1577 – 29 March 1582)​

Would Mary still be considered a worthwhile match for Francis II here, being a Princess not Queen Regnant

 

[Olena]

Would Mary still be considered a worthwhile match for Francis II here, being a Princess not Queen Regnant

She wouldn't be the first Scottish princess to wed the dauphin of France, and it's in tradition with the Auld Alliance. Besides, the English candidates are either too old or Protestant. However, if it still took place I'd prefer to have it that François II also survived and produced offspring. In what way would the match with Tuscany be beneficial to Scotland? Not to mention, Henrii II isn't likely to agree to a Hapsburg marriage as an alternate candidate.

 

[kasumigenx]

He can also marry Elizabeth I..

 

[Tyler96]

He can also marry Elizabeth I..

There isn't really anything about this POD that'd change Liz's temperament regarding marriage, though. And dear old Dudley is still floating about, for whatever that's worth.

Though I suppose the presence of a adult Catholic male on the Scottish throne with a claim to England could increase domestic pressures on Elizabeth.

She wouldn't be the first Scottish princess to wed the dauphin of France, and it's in tradition with the Auld Alliance. Besides, the English candidates are either too old or Protestant. However, if it still took place I'd prefer to have it that François II also survived and produced offspring.

Given he was born after the POD you could easily say butterflies affect Francis' conception and we end up with a healthier alt-Francis II.

 

[JonasResende]

Though I suppose the presence of a adult Catholic male on the Scottish throne with a claim to England could increase domestic pressures on Elizabet

Would he necessarily be Catholic though? I mean, there are grades after all. Mary, queen of Scots was sort of laissez faire when it came to the matter of religion IIRC; Mary Tudor went full bore Catholic that even Felipe II felt she was overdoing it. Elizabeth no one could ever say for certain where she sat (probably Henrician or High Church Anglican, but who knows). And then there were other rulers (Rudolf II, I think Maximilian II might've been another) who were Catholic in name only. So TTLJimmy no. 6 could be anything from indifferent - loyalty to the crown is what matters, not whether your Bible is Latin or Gaelic - to Bible bashing Catholic (turn! Or burn!) - or anything in between.

Marie de Guise had to walk the tightrope between the two - and TBF - she did reasonably well. However, her son is probably going to be more hands on than Mary was OTL (i.e. no being spirited away to France and being seen as essentially a foreigner in your native country), so he's gonna have to figure out how to keep everyone happy.

 

[Olena]

Would he necessarily be Catholic though? I mean, there are grades after all. Mary, queen of Scots was sort of laissez faire when it came to the matter of religion IIRC; Mary Tudor went full bore Catholic that even Felipe II felt she was overdoing it. Elizabeth no one could ever say for certain where she sat (probably Henrician or High Church Anglican, but who knows). And then there were other rulers (Rudolf II, I think Maximilian II might've been another) who were Catholic in name only. So TTLJimmy no. 6 could be anything from indifferent - loyalty to the crown is what matters, not whether your Bible is Latin or Gaelic - to Bible bashing Catholic (turn! Or burn!) - or anything in between.

Marie de Guise had to walk the tightrope between the two - and TBF - she did reasonably well. However, her son is probably going to be more hands on than Mary was OTL (i.e. no being spirited away to France and being seen as essentially a foreigner in your native country), so he's gonna have to figure out how to keep everyone happy.

The question of the king of Scot's religion would be hugely important, given the time period, as it was for both Mary Stuart and Elizabeth, costing the former her life OTL. Unless he personally chose to break from Rome, he would have been brought up in the Catholic faith as both his parents were and remained their entire life despite outside pressure. Protestantism vs Catholicism was one of if not the primary conflicts within Europe as a whole at the time. Therefore, he WOULD be Catholic at least until he reached his majority and could say either yes or no to the matter. The Queen Mother can still bolster enough French support to maintain Scotland as a Catholic nation, especially if Henrii II agrees to a betrothal of James VI and his daughter Elisabeth. Like you said, his actual level of piety was another matter entirely.

I don't see religious intolerance being in practice, as Marie de Guise was a fairly sound and capable ruler and did manage to secure some common-ground with the Scots nobles in governance. Her son would be physically present to learn from this approach, and hopefully, as you say be a more hands-on ruler.

As for loyalty to the crown, the Scots greatly romanticized the Stewart/Stuart dynasty, and with the exception of a few, had no interest in being ruled by anyone else. Even OTL Mary Stuart received support from both divisions of her subjects based solely upon the fact that she was the only surviving legitimate offspring of James V. I don't see this changing for a son.

He can also marry Elizabeth I..

Would Elizabeth agree to the match though? Like @Tyler96 said, her views on marriage were that it was simply a cessation of power to one's husband. Also, if he is married to Elisabeth of Valois while still a youth under regency he's not likely to seek out an annulment or divorce just to marry the queen of England, whose throne he could strategically claim in his own right. If he's anything like his sister was he's likely to view her as being too far beneath him to even consider for marriage. After all, her own father named her a bastard, not just the Catholic Church. Even when she was restored to the line of succession her legitimacy was never re-instated. I very seriously doubt he'd be willing to let his wife take precedence over him as Felipe II had to with Mary or Ferdinand II did with Isabella I in Castile.


@Tyler96 How do you think the ALT François II would affect the French wars of religion? If he produces a healthy heir or two by Princess Mary of Scots Charles IX and Henry III and IV never assume the throne.

 

[JonasResende]

Élisabeth is probably not winding up as queen of Scots, since a) England is the more important of the two states in Britain, and b) marriage to French princess means Edward can't marry a Habsburg girl, plus c) Élisabeth is the oldest daughter of the French king, and might make sense marrying Edward or D.Carlos/Felipe II; perhaps Claude will do instead?

 

[Tyler96]

@Tyler96 How do you think the ALT François II would affect the French wars of religion? If he produces a healthy heir or two by Princess Mary of Scots Charles IX and Henry III and IV never assume the throne.

And Catherine de Medici would be kept out of power. Much would depend on Francis' own religious views and political skills, though given the volatile state France was in you can probably expect something to happen.

If he's still closely associated with the Guises that doesn't necessarily bode well for his religious moderation, but a healthier Francis who lives to adulthood would eventually assert himself and take control of his own government so he could break away from the Guise in that sense.

There's also the possibility of Henry II living longer- his death was a freak accident, and there's twenty years for butterflies to infiltrate the continent and avert it.

.As for loyalty to the crown, the Scots greatly romanticized the Stewart/Stuart dynasty, and with the exception of a few, had no interest in being ruled by anyone else. Even OTL Mary Stuart received support from both divisions of her subjects based solely upon the fact that she was the only surviving legitimate offspring of James V. I don't see this changing for a son.

But the Stewarts did have a long history of fraternal antagonism, and here you've given James V two surviving sons. This could easily play into religious developments- if James VI sticks with Catholicism, Arthur could flirt with the Protestants as part of his mischief making or vice-versa (James gets too close to Protestantism, Arthur presents himself as a Catholic champion). This obviously relies on Arthur being ambitious enough to want to cause trouble for his brother, and religiously flexible.

Would he necessarily be Catholic though?

That's kind of a tough one, really. He'd certainly be raised Catholic by Mary of Guise- though, as you say, he's probably more of a "live and let live" Catholic than a "burn all the heretics" Catholic (and he lacks the mental baggage that led Mary Tudor in that direction).

Once he's an adult he has his own choice to make. Much here depends on how pragmatic he is in religious matters, and whether he's willing to jump on the Protestant ship if that's the way the wind is blowing and there's material advantage to the crown in doing so.

Being raised in Scotland puts him in a better position than Mary IOTL- he'll be more attuned to Scottish religious developments. How would the presence of a king, admittedly a minor, in Scotland rather than an absentee Queen (and the attendant prospect of being subsumed by France) affect religious developments in Scotland throughout the 1540s/50s?

His angling for the English throne might also effect things here- there's something of a tightrope to walk here, trying to play with the hopes of English Catholics but also making himself acceptable to the Elizabethan Protestant establishment. What path he takes here could also change throughout his reign.

 

[mcdnab]

Assuming things play out as you would expect then on James V's death the throne passes to his son - and the Earl of Arran becomes regent (in otl he switched between being pro-English and pro-French and Marie of Guise didn't replace him until the 1550s) - Arran was the first adult male in the line of succession.
Arran was at this point Protestant and in conflict with Cardinal Beaton (who wanted the regency).
His priorities are going to be peace with England and coming to terms with Beaton.
Long-term Arran may return to Catholicism briefly as he did in otl - but initially the education of the King and his siblings is going to fall to Arran - so they might get a more religiously rounded education - they may lean towards Protestantism as they mature.
You are also removing a long war with England and in the 1550s you are not going to see the French pressuring Scotland to come down harder on Protestants as in OTL. Presumably the Princess Mary will be betrothed to Edward Prince of Wales to gain peace with England - but its probably dropped sooner or later in favour of a pro-french match - Mary might find herself betrothed to the Dauphin as in OTL, her brother may well be offered one of Henri II's daughters - however, whether those come to pass is debatable.
In this tl James VI will come of age before the Protestants in OTL took control of the Scots Parliament and began severing Scotland's ties with Rome. He will also come of age shortly before Mary Tudor's death - if he is Protestant-leaning then a solution for Philip and Mary would be the marriage of the teenage James to his cousin Elizabeth. If he is devoutly Catholic then even better for Mary. Of course he may prefer to wait and on Mary's death might simply declare himself the lawful heir to England.

 

[isabella]

Well a Scottish Catholic male cousin would be the most logical choice as heir for Mary Tudor and considering we here are talking about a man instead of the OTL Scottish Queen and Dauphine of France Philip has zero reason for promoting the illegitimate and Protestant Elizabeth (who can very well being executed before Mary’s death here) over him, specially if he can persuade the man to marry one of his Austrian cousins Archduchesses Barbara (1539) Helena (1543) and Joanna (1547) (the younger daughters of Ferdinand I) or after 1554 also his own widowed sister Joanna (1535) in exchange of the English crown