Jagiellon Poland-Lithuania

A while back, I considered writing a TL involving a surviving Jagiellon dynasty in Poland and Lithuania. The POD was that Sigismund II Augustus' third wife, Catherine of Austria, does not miscarry in October 1554 but instead manages to give birth to a healthy son (who will be referred to as *Sigismund III here).

I'm contemplating reviving the project in the future. Ideally, I would like the scenario to involve the strengthening of the power of the Polish Crown under the Jagiellons. I'm aware that development of pure Baroque absolutism is probably impossible by the time of the POD, however, I'm curious as to how to improve the situation in contrast to the developments of OTL--something that I think the survival of the Jagiellons could at least mitigate as a stable dynasty that intimately understands their realm (this being before the Henrican Articles and the Union of Lublin).

I was considering having *Sigismund III take advantage of the Executionist Movement by playing the lesser nobility against the magnates in order to achieve the return of Crown Lands, which would at least significantly enrich the Crown and provide for a larger population of royal peasants to levy a standing army from (perhaps on the model of Stefan Batory in OTL).

Perhaps he could also strengthen the representation of the royal towns in the Polish Sejm or increase the power of the Crown at the expense of the magnates in Lithuania to provide him with an independent base, though I am not sure how far either of these could be achieved at this point in history before the Union?

In any case, any help would be greatly appreciated--I'm far from an expert in Polish history.
 
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I think that time after Sigismund II Augustus was a little too late. Most of demands of the Execution Movement were met, Union of Lublin done, so the political system of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was already mostly established. I think you should start with Sigismund II. Besides, having a son would have most probably changed Sigismund's politics.
The problem with the Execution Movement is that initially king Sigismund Augustus was opposed to it. He prefered to rely on powerful magnates, nad changed sides about 1562. IMHO mostly because of opposition of the Lithuanian magnates against tightening of the union between Poland and Lithuania. Together with the EM the king achieved a lot, but there was a serious chance to get even more. So let's see...
On January 1555 bells start ringing both in Poland and Lithuania. King Sigismund II Augustus has a son! Little Sigismund III is healthy, strong boy. Bat there are also some bitter news. Queen Catherine of Austria did not bear pregnancy and giving birth too well. Her health deteriorates, her epilepsy attacks become more frequent and worse with every day. A year later she dies.
While king is saddened with his wife's death, he can not fell nothing but pride and joy looking at his son. The heir and last hope of Jagiellon dynasty. Sigismund II makes his choice. His son shall be undisputed heir and ruler of both states, Poland and Lithuania. He shall inherit strong, united state, a real union of the Polish Crown and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
Unfortunately, Lithuanian magnates, so far king's main supporters, are not exactly willing to tighten the union with Poland. The different legal system in Lithuania works in their favour. After long discussions in 1557 the king decides to change his policy. He arranges secret meetings with leaders of the Execution Movement, including Mikołaj Sienicki and Hieronim Ossoliński. Together they create a common program acceptable both to king and the middle noblemen, the core of the EM.
In 1559 the Sejm in Piotrków starts. To great surprise of most the noblemen king, who so far ignored the Sejm, appears there in person, together with his son, both in clothes of a middle noblemen. It is a clear demonstration of king's policy - he stands with the EM.
The Sejm of Piotrków lasts much longer than expected. But also the changes made are enormous. The legislative power of the Sejm is untouched, but its work shall be from now on regulated by Articles of the Sejm, prepared by Opaliński. Among other things it is clearly written there that delegates to the Sejm are not bound by the instructions of their constituency and that all decisions are to be made by a majority of the votes. The Sejm passes the bill regulating the elections of the kings, should it become necessary. In exchange king's executive power is somewhat stregthened, as it is explained, to make him an effective guardian of the laws.
Most of the Execution Movements demands are met. The power of magnates is diminished after the execution and lustration of the crown lands is ordered, as is the executing laws against holding certain state offices at the same time by one person. The Sejm creates special committees to reorganize Polish judicial system and public finances. A part of the income from crown lands is to be used to finance a standing army under king's command. Most of the privileges of the clergy are revoked, including freedom of taxation. There are even strong votes calling for creating a Polish national church. However, king is decided to remain Catholic. OTOH he supports another law, called "Humanae conscientiae Deus solus iudex est" (The only judge of human conscience is God) - the law guaranteeing freedom of religion in Poland.
King doesn't totally trusts his noblemen, so he tries to create some other force in the Sejm loyal to him. The towns. Royal towns which are granted the nobleman's right are given the right to have not only rappresentatives in the Sejm, but also a right to vote (a whole town is considered a nobleman, so every town has only one vote). However, the king is not allowed to grant similar rights to any other town without approval of the Sejm. The noblemen are not exactly happy with this, but considering there are only few towns with similar rights they reluctanlty agree.
Another committe is created to prepare full legal unification of Poland with West Prussia and Masovia. However, the most important committee has only one goal - to prepare a full union between Poland and Lithuania.
 
My ego is pleasantly tingling... Thanks for compliments.

In fact I didn't change that much compering to the OTL. Sigismund II indeed switched sides and supported the Execution Movement - I only made him do it a few years earlier and make some secret preparation for the Sejm in Piotrków. To be honest, I think my scenario might be a tad optimistic, but I believe it to be plausible. Having a child can change a man, especially if the father in question is the last of his line - and suddenly he isn't anymore. Besides Sigismund II was somewhat sickly man, so he might decide to work harder and faster to leave his kingdom(s) in the best shape possible, since his son might have to sit on the Polish throne in quite tender age.
The regulation of the Sejm were based on actual proposal made in 1558 by some deputees to the Sejm (including Hieronim Ossoliński) concerning the election of the king.
I also had some thoughts concernign towns. The EM was not exactly fond of towns and some if its goals were in fact anti-burger. As I wrote, the king might decide he needs additional support and some rights for towns are the proce the EM pays for royal support. OTOH the towns in Poland and (especially) in Lithuania weren't that big and powerful as in western Europe, with possible exception of Gdańsk (Danzig) and Cracow. Therefore their political and economic strength was not that big (again, except Gdańsk). To be honest, I think that strengthening towns' position, while useful, is not a necessary condition to reform Poland and consequently, the Commonwealth.
Another thing is the election of a king. It is often forgotten, that while Jagiellons were hereditary rulers of Lithuania, in Poland they were elected since Władysław Jagiełło - generally by council of powerful lords/magnates which had to be approved by a gathering of knights/noblemen. I wonder if Sigismund II might push for hereditary dynasty in union of Poland and Lithuania, making election in Poland unnecessary. Or perhaps formalize the way a king was electad, as it was proposed in 1558.
 
First off, I believe that a thank you is in order, seraphim74!

I agree, the scenerio is a bit optimistic, but it's definitely plausible. With a little luck, it could easily be achieved. After all, Zygmunt August was well known for both his patience and his shrewdness as a politician, especially in dealing with the Sejm.

As far as foreign policy goes, would *Zygmunt III pursue an alliance with his Habsburg cousins, seeing as both have a mutual interest in countering the Turks? Or is he going to be more interested in courting the Swedes or the Danes (especially with Muscovy's ambitions on the rise)?
 
You're welcome. Happy to help.

IIRC neither Zygmunt August nor Polish noblemen weren't exactly willing to mess with the Ottoman Empire (in opposition to some pro-Habsburg magnates). In 1552 hetman Mikołaj Sieniawski without any orders invaded Moldavia and put his protegee, Alexander Lapusneanu, on Moldavian throne. Zygmunt August reacted immediately and ordered all Polish forces to retreat from Molddavia at once. The marriage with Catherine of Austria changed that a little, and her giving birth to a son might strengthen pro-Austrian faction in the Sejm and on Polish court.
Personally, however, I think that Muscovia would be the target number 1. Lithuania was more or less in permanent conflict with them, and on its own was too weak to deal with tsars. I think the case of Livonia would be a decisive factor - Muscovia wanted access to the Baltic Sea, Lithuania wanted to block it. IOTL Zygmunt supported Lithuania and forced Livonia to surrender to Poland and Lithuania. Eventually a war started between Poland-Lithuania and Muscovia for Livonia in 1558 (ended in 1570). The conflict with Muscovia was also one of the reasons many Lithuanian noblemen pushod for stronger union with Poland. However, they had various ideas about the shape of the union. Anyway, Zygmunt August might use that war (if it happens) to force Lithuanians to accept more of Polish proposals for the union and make it more centralized; full incorporation of Lithuania into Poland is of course absolutely out of question.
Concerning alliances - Livonia was an object of interests of Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Danemark and Muscovia. IOTL Sweden and Muscovia eventually allied themselves against Lithuania (and consequently Poland); Poland-Lithuania OTOH was allied to Danemark.
The war of 1558-1570 was very costly for Lithuania and Muscovia. The border regions were devastated and depopulated, there were also cases of diseases.
 
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Interesting...

So, assuming for a moment that the Livonian War goes according to OTL, I assume that *Zygmunt III, upon coming to the throne, will be more likely to wed a Swedish or Danish princess in hopes of cementing an anti-Muscovite alliance than a Habsburg cousin, which would tie him too closely to providing support to Imperial interests in Hungary against the Turks? I remember reading somewhere that when OTL's Zygmunt Vaza married an Austrian archduchess it was quite unpopular with the szlachta.

Also, if I may, another question: is the piechota wybraniecka system going to be completely butterflied away sans Stefan Batory ITTL? Or will *Zygmunt III (or perhaps even his father) likely come up with something very similar to it after the implementation of TTL's constitutions of Piotrków? I assume that military reforms in Poland and Lithuania will be necessary in order to secure a total victory against Ivan IV?
 
With a Poland-Lithuania more focused on Russia/Muscovy, it'd be interesting if they could pull off a better result of an ALT Time of Troubles.

Seeing as how the Jageillons were traditionally more tolerant of religious diversity, hopefully they might successfully stick a member on the throne of Russia without someone *cough* OTL Zygmunt III *cough* throwing a giant hissy fit at the thought of a son converting to gain a throne and thereby having a friendlier Russia.

Seriously, I do not like the Vasa dynasty. Poland electing them was like getting a bad case of the clap.
 

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I dunno, While the Jagellions doing better in the *Time of Troubles would be a more likely scenario, What's not to say Ivan does not kill his eldest son and strongest chance of continuing the Rurikid Dynasty
 
I dunno, While the Jagellions doing better in the *Time of Troubles would be a more likely scenario, What's not to say Ivan does not kill his eldest son and strongest chance of continuing the Rurikid Dynasty

I've always suspected that someone as mentally unstable as Ivan the terrible and someone like his son would have come to blows over something.

Your right of course. There is good probability that Ivan doesn't kill his son in a fit of rage, but he was prone to things like that, so I wouldn't put him killing his son out of the question.

And of course, Ivan Ivanovich (and Feodor) die by other means as well to produce an ALT time of troubles.
 
Originally posted by Endymion
So, assuming for a moment that the Livonian War goes according to OTL, I assume that *Zygmunt III, upon coming to the throne, will be more likely to wed a Swedish or Danish princess in hopes of cementing an anti-Muscovite alliance than a Habsburg cousin, which would tie him too closely to providing support to Imperial interests in Hungary against the Turks? I remember reading somewhere that when OTL's Zygmunt Vaza married an Austrian archduchess it was quite unpopular with the szlachta.
Also, if I may, another question: is the piechota wybraniecka system going to be completely butterflied away sans Stefan Batory ITTL? Or will *Zygmunt III (or perhaps even his father) likely come up with something very similar to it after the implementation of TTL's constitutions of Piotrków? I assume that military reforms in Poland and Lithuania will be necessary in order to secure a total victory against Ivan IV?
If Catherine Jagellon still marries Swedish king, (or if John Vasa becomes the king of Sweden) as IOTL any Swedish princess might be a bit too close related (she would have been *Zygmunt III's first cousin). There are also some political disadvantages, since Poland-Lithuania might be in conflict with Sweden concerning Livonia. Habsburgs indeed weren't that popular, although there was strong pro-Habsburg faction, mostly among magnates, I believe. Danish princess is more likely, if there is one available. Religion might be a problem though.
As far as piechota wybraniecka goes. If there is war with Russia in Livonia, Poland-Lithuania will need an army. They got some money, so they can hire mercenaries (German and/or local as IOTL). Infantry wasn't popular among Polish noblemen, since it was mostly plebeian and noblemen weren't willing to let some of their serfs join the army - they didn't want peasants to get any ideas about their status and they didn't want to loose their workforce. Besides, Poland's everyday enemy were Tatars, and slow infantry was poorly qualified to hunt their fast raiding parties. OTOH, war against Russia, especially in Livonia with relatively high number of castles and fortified towns, would require some infantry to assault them or defend them. I think there was some grudging agreement about necessity of organising some standing infantry units, although they probably wouldn't be based on Hungarian model. There might be also different system of recruitment. I also wonder abput their numbers.

As far the Time of Troubles... IF it happens at all. Originally Polish intervention was a private enterprise of the Mniszech family. Polish regular army and the king joint "the fun" later, mostly because of kings's interest in Sweden. Now, ITTL Poland-Lithuania might decide to interfere earlier, support some other pretendent or indeed put *Sigismund III's son (if there is one) on Muscovian throne. But a lot can happen until that time...
 
Originally posted by Endymion
If Catherine Jagellon still marries Swedish king, (or if John Vasa becomes the king of Sweden) as IOTL any Swedish princess might be a bit too close related (she would have been *Zygmunt III's first cousin). There are also some political disadvantages, since Poland-Lithuania might be in conflict with Sweden concerning Livonia. Habsburgs indeed weren't that popular, although there was strong pro-Habsburg faction, mostly among magnates, I believe. Danish princess is more likely, if there is one available. Religion might be a problem though.

I certainly would not exclude a Pro-Habsburg match. After all, ITTL the mother of *Sigismund III would be a Habsburg, and his father probably would have less reasons to be against them, as his wife gave him what he wanted: an heir. The Habsburgs would also consider *Sigismund III as part of the family, and given their intermarriage policies they certainly would offer a bride for him.
 
I certainly would not exclude a Pro-Habsburg match. After all, ITTL the mother of *Sigismund III would be a Habsburg, and his father probably would have less reasons to be against them, as his wife gave him what he wanted: an heir. The Habsburgs would also consider *Sigismund III as part of the family, and given their intermarriage policies they certainly would offer a bride for him.

Zygmunt August also may be willing or pressured to marry another wife after death of whatshername. He's not even forty. A son is good, more is better, right? Any ideas?

And after two habsburg wifes, both with problems, Ziggy should discourage his son to marry another one.
 
Zygmunt August also may be willing or pressured to marry another wife after death of whatshername. He's not even forty. A son is good, more is better, right? Any ideas?

For a second wife, maybe if Sigismund wants to distance himself from the Habsburgs, there is Margaret of France, Duchess of Berry, sister of Henry II of France. She would be a bit old (32 in 1555) but she could be a good "mother figure" for the young also. Also, IOTL she had a son when she was 38, so probably she could deliver a "spare". If he wants someone younger, maybe Lucrezia D'Este, daughter of the Duke of Ferrara. Her mother was Reneé of France, the second daughter of Louis XII.

By 1555 the only princess the Habsburgs had available to him were his former wife's sisters Eleonora and Barbara. However, I have some doubts he would want to marry any of them.

There is also Mechthild of Bavaria: she would be 23, her brother Albert IV was married to a Habsburg, but was quite independent from them.
 
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