Jacobite Victory at the Battle of the Boyne

Ok although I realise this has been touched on before I’m still interested in what people have to say. The battle of the Boyne and the Irish campaign was ultimately won by the multi national army led by William of Orange and his allies. English and Protestant political dominance over the islands was emboldened and cemented following this war only to be threatened later the next century. However what if the Jacobite has won? Would James vii of then restored the Stuart’s to the British crown? Would he of granted some sort of independence to the Irish as he had promised along with religious tolerance? How would World ppolitics have been affected? Would the future Irish famines and mass migrations been butterflies away?
 
1. Would James vii of then restored the Stuart’s to the British crown?

2. Would he of granted some sort of independence to the Irish as he had promised along with religious tolerance?

3. How would World politics have been affected?

4. Would the future Irish famines and mass migrations been butterflies away?

1. Unlikely. Losing one battle (even one commanded by the King) is unlikely to destroy William's army which was considerably larger than James. You may see an Ulster / rest of Ireland split as happen during the Confederate wars but the long term consequences are dependent on other factors

2. Probably in the sense that there would be an Irish parliament of sorts. It would be dependent on the Jame's goodwill (and he on its) which is why religious tolerance would probably be a factor. But that would harden the Protestant faction in Ireland against him.

3. A victory for James might persuade Louis to support him more directly with his fleet - in the short term this would make things difficult for William in reinforcing Ireland and in the longer term the Anglo-Dutch fleet was always likely to prevail.

4. Depends if you see a partitioned Ireland enduring - I don't. Even if William did give up on Ireland the likely arrangements for Irish landowners are hardly likely to be enlightened under a Stuart. So whilst the food within the country may be allocated better (even that is unsure), there would be no aid coming from England and Scotland for any famine. I doubt whether the famines and mass migrations would be very different except that the British Empire may be more difficult for Irish emigrants to access. So if American independence proceeds as OTL then there could be an even greater number of Irish immigrants to America than oTL.
 
1. Unlikely. Losing one battle (even one commanded by the King) is unlikely to destroy William's army which was considerably larger than James. You may see an Ulster / rest of Ireland split as happen during the Confederate wars but the long term consequences are dependent on other factors

2. Probably in the sense that there would be an Irish parliament of sorts. It would be dependent on the Jame's goodwill (and he on its) which is why religious tolerance would probably be a factor. But that would harden the Protestant faction in Ireland against him.

3. A victory for James might persuade Louis to support him more directly with his fleet - in the short term this would make things difficult for William in reinforcing Ireland and in the longer term the Anglo-Dutch fleet was always likely to prevail.

4. Depends if you see a partitioned Ireland enduring - I don't. Even if William did give up on Ireland the likely arrangements for Irish landowners are hardly likely to be enlightened under a Stuart. So whilst the food within the country may be allocated better (even that is unsure), there would be no aid coming from England and Scotland for any famine. I doubt whether the famines and mass migrations would be very different except that the British Empire may be more difficult for Irish emigrants to access. So if American independence proceeds as OTL then there could be an even greater number of Irish immigrants to America than oTL.


Thank you for your response - I agree in some part to what you have said however I think in relation to question one it probably depends on the manner of the victory. Had William been killed I could likely see an invasion of the mainland supported by France which may have succeeded? There were still Jacobites on the mainland plus the support of the Highlanders - I could see Scotland being overwhelmed at the very least. However nothing would be certain and any invasion would be a precarious mission fraught with many potential problems both logistical and political.
 
Could there be a stalemate in which James reigns in Ireland but not England/Scotland?

I don't believe it would be a stalemate, at least not for very long. Unless William dies, I think he'll just raise an army and go conquer Ireland again, and it will be the average Irishman/woman that will pay the price...
 
I don’t know enough of Irish history to preview the island’s future but on the short term and the larger scene, a day for James is likely to boost Louis XIV.

William would appear as a weaker ruler to his Grand Alliance partners, unable to truly enforce the succession. He would be unable to go back in Holland to lead the Dutch defense. Louis, on the other hand, would be able to threaten Great Britain, especially as the French fleet is not so weak vis a vis the Anglo Dutch.

James may not end up be king of much, but his cousin would benefit of any Williamite defeats. Maybe annexation of Lorraine, or even a settlement of the Spanish succession.
 
Top