Jacobite queries

So, there are two questions here, related or not related to one another.

First question, say if in 1736, there are a series of tragedies that befall Britain, firstly there are a lot of riots, poor harvests, and a member of the royal family, perhaps the Duke of Cumberland, dies. Over the water, James Francis Edward Stuart, otherwise known as the old pretender also dies. His son, Bonnie Prince Charlie is now the Jacobite claimant, he is recognised as such by France, Spain and Rome. The chaos in Britain, prompts another Jacobite insurrection, which turns out to be successful, Charles is now King, and has converted to Anglicanism. Who does he marry?

Second unrelated question, what would it take for Rinaldo, Duke of Modena to agree to marry his daughter to James Francis Edward Stuart, the Old Pretender?
 
So, there are two questions here, related or not related to one another.

First question, say if in 1736, there are a series of tragedies that befall Britain, firstly there are a lot of riots, poor harvests, and a member of the royal family, perhaps the Duke of Cumberland, dies. Over the water, James Francis Edward Stuart, otherwise known as the old pretender also dies. His son, Bonnie Prince Charlie is now the Jacobite claimant, he is recognised as such by France, Spain and Rome. The chaos in Britain, prompts another Jacobite insurrection, which turns out to be successful, Charles is now King, and has converted to Anglicanism. Who does he marry?

Second unrelated question, what would it take for Rinaldo, Duke of Modena to agree to marry his daughter to James Francis Edward Stuart, the Old Pretender?

As to the first question, Charlie is 16, so probably still under a regency. He hasn't taken part in the Neapolitan campaign of D. Carlos yet, so he's not really on anybody's radar. I read somewhere that James III was hoping for a match between one of his sons and Archduchess Maria Amalie (youngest sister of Maria Theresia). But outside of that, nothing. The French know he's there, but they're in the midst of the 30-years peace, and such a match is gonna rock the boat. Of course France's proxies (Savoy/Modena) are available, and have princesses to spare. So possibly one of those. As to Charles converting to CoE - remember, he didn't do it in the '45, he did it at a later point (and probably more with the intent of pissing off his dad than out of sincere conviction). But if he's king of England/Britain (not sure that Cumberland is any good to you there = since he's about the same age as Charlie b.1721, so he's 15yo and not really anything of a soldier, so maybe George II dies? Although the prince of Wales is an adult, so all hail King Frederick?)... Otherwise it's pretty difficult to say.

As to Rinaldo agreeing to the match, I'm not sure. He seems to have been a pretty pacific character OTL, and by letting his daughter marry the "king" of England, he'd be picking a side. AFAIK, that's the reason that most of his daughters went unmarried OTL. However, Rinaldo proved extraordinarily long-lived. So, perhaps killing him off sooner might help? IDK who'd be regent for Modena if Francesco's still underage, though.
 
Intriguing points for both, would it be better then for Charles to be the man leading the 45 or say aimethinf in the early 40s as king?
 
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