Being president is like being a jackass in a hailstorm. There's nothing to do but to stand there and take it.
~ Lyndon Johnson
Jackasses in a Hailstorm
or
Fear, Loathing and a Surprising Amount of Actual Campaigning on the Campaign Trail in '64
(credit to SergeantHawk for the graphic)
•••
~ Lyndon Johnson
Jackasses in a Hailstorm
or
Fear, Loathing and a Surprising Amount of Actual Campaigning on the Campaign Trail in '64
(credit to SergeantHawk for the graphic)
•••
Chapter 1:
"Ponder and deliberate before you make a move" - (The Art of War, VII, 21)
+++
The decision by President Lyndon Johnson not to seek a second term is no doubt a puzzling one to many students of history. Johnson had a wave of popularity after John F. Kennedy's death in Dallas and was wringing through bills in his "War on Poverty" but the Texan remained unconvinced that he was truly popular and would be able to escape Kennedy's shadow. But few knew this at the time and his supporters were already readying themselves for a campaign in 1964, setting up proxy's in primary states as the President publicly refused to decide. But a health scare with his heart in January 1964 made Johnson convinced that even if he was reelected that he'd die in office. In a decision that he would later admit he regretted he announced that he would not run for President in 1964, officially for health reasons but unofficially because he thought (very likely incorrectly) that he would loose. The announcement shook the Democratic Party, still torn by fighting over Civil Rights, and provoked a firestorm of speculation on who would run.
The obvious front runner at the start of the race was the deceased President's brother and the Attorney General Robert Kennedy. Kennedy represented the lofty hopes invested in his brother and the more liberal wing of his party.
The New Deal and Union segment of the party was mostly represented by Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey who ran on a solid liberal and pro-Civil Rights platform while emphasizing his experience compared to that of Kennedy.
Senator Wayne Morse of Oregon, a former Republican and failed opponent of JFK, also entered. Morse was relatively liberal and was a maverick, attacking and angering politicians on both sides of the aisle. His opposition to further involvement in East Asia appealed to pacifists but hurt him elsewhere.
Stuart Symington, a Senator from Missouri, campaigned as a representative of a south that had moved past segregation. He took a line against "paranoia" and would only speak to desegregated groups. However this wrecked his support in his nominal base in the south, meaning he failed to really get started.
Pat Brown, the Liberal governor of California, ran as well, but failed to adequately differentiate himself from the felid.
Adlai Stevenson, the former Governor of Illinois, ran again. But losses to Eisenhower in 1952 and 1958 and failing to be nominated in 1960 killed his campaign before it began.
Finally there was George Wallace, the segregationist governor of Alabama. Already famous for his loud and public attacks on the Civil Rights movement he appealed to whites who felt betrayed by the party as well as those friendly to his generally populist message. He was also constantly threatening a third party run.
+++
By contrast the Republican race seemed at first to be a two horse one. Moderate New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller was popular in his state and supported by the moderate to liberal "Eastern Establishment". However when his wife, who he had married quite quickly after divorcing his old one, gave birth raising concerns about extramarital affairs and his values.
Those who were concerned by such issues as values flocked to the conservative Senator from Arizona, Barry Goldwater, who was an ardent opponent of the New Deal and big government in general. Once remarking that the country would be better off if the Eastern Seaboard was sawed off he was unappealing to moderates but attractive to ex-Democrats opposed to the new liberal direction the party was taking.
Various minor candidates swirled about and write in campaigns were organized around Richard Nixon and Henry Cabot Lodge Jr.
Just like the Democrats were torn, the Republicans swayed between conservative and liberal.
+++
The first primary in the nation and important for the issue of momentum was New Hampshire. Not every candidate had ballot access in the state and many write in votes ensued, confusing the process considerably.
With the endorsement of the Governor and a strong base of support from his dead brother Bobby Kennedy swept towards victory in New Hampshire, holding off a "bipartisan" write in campaign by Wayne Morse that included only democrats. The only other news was a surprisingly weak showing by Hubert Humphrey.
The Republican side saw an overconfident Barry Goldwater prematurely assure himself victory, believing that vote splitting between various moderate write-ins and Nelson Rockefeller would assure him victory. In a shocking twist these write ins provided a winner instead of a spoiler. The tally gave victory to the current Ambassador to South Vietnam Henry Cabot Lodge Jr, who had been the Vice Presidential Nominee in 1960.
Lodge now faced a dilemma, did he run hard despite his doubts that he would fail to gain any delegates? Or did he disavow the campaign? In the end he chose an awkward path, saying that he would "serve ably if drafted" but that he "must continue" in South Vietnam. Of course the attack ads wrote themselves, claiming that Lodge would not even campaign come the General Election.
+++
RFK's victory in New Hampshire solidified his front runner status and marked the unfolding of a campaign slightly more independent of his brother's legacy. Uniting JFK's "New Frontier" and Johnson's "War on Poverty" his speeches began referencing a "Good Society" and an expansion of New Deal programs. Just as his brother captured the American imagination RFK was strong among younger voters. He shared some of his brother's charisma and a strong sense of political savvy. His famous response to allegations that he lacked foreign policy experience was "Ask anyone where I was during the Cuban crisis, it wasn't in a courtroom." His chief opponent on the left was Hubert Humphrey, who had the backing of Unions, as well as President Johnson. Humphrey assaulted the Attorney General on the experience and touted a strong civil rights record. Meanwhile George Wallace gained steam in the few states where he was on the ballot, appealing to conservative whites afraid for their jobs. Kennedy sought to stem this momentum and hopefully avoid Wallace's threatened third party run.
+++
Other Alternatives to Kennedy '64?
Northeastumbrian said:Like it says above. Who else might've had a shot against Bobby Kennedy in '64 aside from Humphrey and Wallace?
GloryGloryGlory said:Lyndon Johnson. RFK was popular, but not popular enough to oust a President in the primary.
ABC123DoRayMe said:Ding Ding Ding! We have a winner!
Yolanda said:No Humphrey could let Symington, or whatever the Missouri guy was called slip in.
IllinoisSox said:Adlai Stevenson.
ABC123DoRayMe said:You have an unhealthy obsession with Stevenson.
Northeastumbrian said:So if Johnson runs and wins, is Kennedy the go to choice for VPOTUS?
Yolanda said:NWIHP. See: Texas Primary. Likely Humphrey, maybe Morse to appeal to GOPers if Goldwater gets the nod.
+++
RK: Do we push for a debate?
KO: With Humphrey or with the Republican?
RK: Both.
KO: Humphrey is a solid speaker, could be risky, especially if he gets Johnson to take the gloves off.
TK: Wallace would want to be invited.
RK: No. No way I do that.
KO: Good, last thing we need is a fight over segregation at the debate.
RK: But what about Humphrey? Do we take the risk and debate him?
KO: Radio or Television?
TK: Does it really matter?
KO: Of course it does, you know the numbers after the first debate in sixty. I say you stick to a TV debate with Humphrey. He'll probably say no but if he agrees we can smoke him.
RK: And with the Republicans?
KO: Goldwater is nuts, but he's not stupid enough to debate you.
RK: And the others?
KO: No chance to get past without a messy fight, they'll be too much in damage control mode to want to risk it.
Last edited: