Jack Lynch does something very dumb

during the Northern Ireland riots of August 1969 Irish Prime Minster Jack Lynch ordered the Army to prepare a plan for possible incursions, known as "Exercise Armageddon"

The plan called for units of specially trained and equipped Irish commandos to infiltrate Northern Ireland and launch guerilla-style operations against the Belfast docks, Aldergrove airport, the BBC studios and key industries. The campaign would start in Belfast and the northwest, so as to draw the bulk of security forces in Northern Ireland away from the border areas and turn their attention to the guerilla campaign. The Irish Army would then invade with four brigades operating in company-strength units to occupy the Catholic areas of Derry and Newry, and attack any remaining security forces in those areas.

over all the military made it overly clear that was a bad idea and most likely undoable, but what if Jack Lynch pushed by Kevin Boland and Neil Blaney went for it and tried "Exercise Armageddon"
 
We had a thread about this a few weeks ago, it was a totally stupid idea and personally I believe if Lynch had ordered the Irish Army across the border then it would have had it's own version of The Curragh Mutiny. Even if they had attempted it then it would have been a military fiasco but would have set off a terrible wave of sectarian violence across NI. It was a good thing that Lynch thought better of it!

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=178029
 

Thande

Donor
Ireland is brought back into the fold?

Of course not. But Britain doesn't have to do anything aggressive. If trade ceased between Britain and the Republic due to a war, however brief, it would break the Republic of Ireland's economy like a twiglet. And you can kiss goodbye to Irish accession to the EEC in 1973.
 
Of course not. But Britain doesn't have to do anything aggressive. If trade ceased between Britain and the Republic due to a war, however brief, it would break the Republic of Ireland's economy like a twiglet. And you can kiss goodbye to Irish accession to the EEC in 1973.

having read the other thread there wasn't much in those 5 pages other than the no duh of Ireland gets beat rather badly, so what happens in the afterward of the war, which clearly Ireland looses very badly, will Ireland stay poor through to today? does this kill Fianna Fáil as a party? does the UK get into the EEC any ways? how hard a crack down is there in Northern Ireland? and does the UK try to get the Irish Government brought to justice?
 
Of course not. But Britain doesn't have to do anything aggressive. If trade ceased between Britain and the Republic due to a war, however brief, it would break the Republic of Ireland's economy like a twiglet. And you can kiss goodbye to Irish accession to the EEC in 1973.

And the economy was already almost in the toilet already.

Longer term, one of the major effects could have been an end to nearly all the support for the IRA in the US. With the UK playing the victim, and the Repulic looking the violent aggressor, Ireland's not going to get special favors from anywhere. Thus, the Irish economy is just going to continue to deteriorate until, frankly, the North is the least of their concerns...
 

Pangur

Donor
I am n os sure about that !

And the economy was already almost in the toilet already.

Longer term, one of the major effects could have been an end to nearly all the support for the IRA in the US. With the UK playing the victim, and the Repulic looking the violent aggressor, Ireland's not going to get special favors from anywhere. Thus, the Irish economy is just going to continue to deteriorate until, frankly, the North is the least of their concerns...


Far from convinced that it would turn out that way (lack of support in the US etc0 I had heard about this growing up and from what I remember the hot heads were actaully cooled down by having to consider the financial costs. For the record the Irish economy was in pretty good nick in 1969, it feel apart after 1973 right enough.
 
What people need to bear in mind is that apart from gobshites like Blaney and Haughey, the Irish Government knew that there was no way they could seize NI by force. The objective of Exercise Armageddon was primarily as a PR stunt to highlight the plight of Northern Nationalists, something that the August'69 riots was already focusing international attention on. The British had little idea how bad conditions in NI were and they initially saw their intervention as a prop to the Stormont regime.

What EA could have done is to put Britain in the international doghouse, especially if it had driven back the Irish Army who would have been claiming to be on a humanitarian mission to protect Nationalists. In this scenario the Irish American lobby would have been pushing hard for America to intervene in the crisis and to give economic aid to Ireland.

However the situation on the ground would have been far worse. The Loyalists have grown up believing that the Republic wants to absorb NI and barbecue every first born Protestant male. Even if the invasion is beaten back there would have been widespread riots with the mass killings and expulsions of Nationalists, Protestants in the border areas would also have been the subject of similar attacks. The outcome would have been hundreds of dead civilians and the ethnic cleansing of large areas. Lynch's decision to ignore the hotheads was the best one he ever made.
 
However the situation on the ground would have been far worse. The Loyalists have grown up believing that the Republic wants to absorb NI and barbecue every first born Protestant male. Even if the invasion is beaten back there would have been widespread riots with the mass killings and expulsions of Nationalists, Protestants in the border areas would also have been the subject of similar attacks. The outcome would have been hundreds of dead civilians and the ethnic cleansing of large areas. Lynch's decision to ignore the hotheads was the best one he ever made.

I disagree with you on the international aspect but you touch on an important issue here. In 1969 there was actually much more community mixing than today. While most areas where either overwhelmingly Protestant or Catholic it was 75% rather than 98%. Also the process of ethnic cleansing that happened in OTL to create the current situation occurred over five years and it had only just started. That means a lot more people are vulnerable to lynching than only a few months later.
 
What people need to bear in mind is that apart from gobshites like Blaney and Haughey, the Irish Government knew that there was no way they could seize NI by force. The objective of Exercise Armageddon was primarily as a PR stunt to highlight the plight of Northern Nationalists, something that the August'69 riots was already focusing international attention on. The British had little idea how bad conditions in NI were and they initially saw their intervention as a prop to the Stormont regime.

What EA could have done is to put Britain in the international doghouse, especially if it had driven back the Irish Army who would have been claiming to be on a humanitarian mission to protect Nationalists. In this scenario the Irish American lobby would have been pushing hard for America to intervene in the crisis and to give economic aid to Ireland.

while the PR stunt might of been the goal I doubt it would work out that way, even those that might agree with Ireland about how bad Norn Iron was almost none would agree with taking armed action, I believe in the supportive camp it'll be viewed as "adding gas to the fire"

"the Irish American lobby"? while there are those who have romantic feelings for Ireland but I don't ever think they've ever gotten together and lobbied for any real policy toward Ireland, plus if ether party is worried about Irish votes its the Democrats and the brand new President is Nixon, say what you will Nixon always jumped in for his allies (Israel in 1973 and Pakistan 1971)
 
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