"I've Lost my HATS!" (WWII WI)

Operation Hats, a British escort mission to Malta in Aug/Sep 1940, saw the RM briefly in a position to engage British battleships with superior numbers (4/2 BB, 0/1 CV, 7/1 C(H), 7/4 C, 39/17 DD), at least according to the link. :)

The link claims the RM high command "squandered" the opportunity for a devastating blow. However, might that CV (Illustrious) have made up the difference? What sayeth the crowd?
 
Woot, a surge in Malta threads! Finally, our place in the sun... oh, wait, thats no good here...*squirms as memories of the harch Maltese sun flood back and sunburn flares up...*
 

Germaniac

Donor
If the Italian navy can pull out a victory (sink at least one battleship and damage enough other vessels) and don't loose significant numbers it would be a massive blow to the British physique. While it is not that huge of a loss militarily, France just collapsed and nothing is really going right for them
 
Interesting scenario. Dont have time for a full analysis of this now, but some quick thoughts:

-The source may be overstating the Italian advantage somewhat. The arrival of Force B (Renown, Ark Royal, and escorts) would even the odds a fair bit. And given what we know the Swordfish could accomplish, ruling out the possibility of them hurting the Italians (particularly the 5th battle division) shouldnt be ruled out.

-That said, a force solely between the regia Marina and force F starts out with a major material advantage for the Italians. Whether they can use that to full effect is debatable, but it is an advantage.

-It all really hinges on whether the Italians can effectivly concentrate their efforts on Force F immediatly without Cunningham retiring either towards Alexandria or force B.

-Might possibly cause an early invasion of Malta. Its hard to be sure how the morale effects play out, but all sorts of butterflies are possible (a decisive italian victory may even be enough to convince Hitler to attempt the unspeakable sea mammal).
 

Redbeard

Banned
With Littorio and Vittorio Veneto present the odds are very much in Italian favour even though there are reports of the Italians having serious dispersion problems with their naval guns - low quality propellant and muzzle interference. But that number of 8-15" guns is so overwhelming that even with a 50% hit rate compared to the very accurate 15"/42 on the British ships will still leave a comfortable superority to the Italians. Next the Vittorio Veneto class was very well protected and even the reconstructed battleships were at a decent level - and all some knots faster than the Valiant's 24-25 knots (what wass the other British battleship?). Valiant would be reasonably protected against the 32cm guns of the reconstructed Italians, but Renown, if/when she arrives, is not. The Italian 15" guns probably was the most powerful 15" gun ever built. The price was a low barrel life, but that is only a problem inbetween battles.

I doubt if a single or even two carriers (with small number of planes onboard) can change the odds. The best they can hope for is slowing the Italian main force enough for the British to escape.

A decisive Italian victory would be most uncomfortable to the British, and might have Churchill fall soon after. If the Germans have some diplomtic sense (which however was a scarce commodity in WWII Germany) they utilise the opportunty to get a peace agreement with the British - almost no matter the price and even if it means telling the Italians to shut up and stay put.

Loosing a couple of old battleships will not make UK defenseless however, five KGVs are in the tube, but the loss of prestige is enormous - and this is even contemporary with the climax of BoB. The Italians will be boasted with self confidence however, and that might make things a lot tougher in the Med. This is also a time when the Americans were uncertain about UK's will or ability to stay in the war.

In such a situation I think a German offer to let the British keep their Empire if they stay out of European affairs (kind of joining the Isolationist Club) could be taken serious in London - and certainly if the predominant signal from Washington is: "You are on your own!".

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Wow! Quite a range of possibilities, then.

Best case for the Axis: Decisive Italian victory that could lead to the ousting of Churchill and a negotiated peace in the west.

Worst case for the Axis: Decisive Italian victory that could lead Hitler to attempt Ye Olde Seamammale! :eek:
 
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