Could Ivan IV, tsar of Russia, somehow be elected king of Poland and grand Duke of Lithuania after Sigismund II's death in 1572? Assuming the answer is yes, could such an union spark a war in Eastern Europe? I doubt states like Sweden, the Habsburg dominions and the Ottoman Empire would like having a giant new empire that stretches from Warsaw to Kazan sitting right at their doorstep. Plus, what would be Ivan's relations with the szlachta? Probably terrible, given his autocratic nature.
Ivan IV becomes king of Poland in 1572?
- Thread starter Vinization
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Yeah, that too. Didn't Lithuania have a lot of Orthodox people though, especially in Ukraine?
Not necessarily. IIRC, Ivan's candidacy was favored by the poorer aristocracy, who wanted him to inflict some of that autocracy on the magnates as he had done on the Boyars.
This, if everything else is worked out, may end up as an attractive agenda for the nobility, especially if some of the confiscated lands goes nobility’s way and the same goes for a guaranteed monetary payments and land grants for military service. Of course, religion is still a big issue, especially in Poland. Of course, a risk of a conflict between Ivan’s autocratic habits and the Polish …er… “constitutionalism” 😜 is a realistic possibility and Ivan hardly can deal with this issue the same way he dealt with the Russian “constitutionalism” (creation of the separate oprichnina “state” which existed in parallel with the traditional state ruled by the boyars).
As for the neighbors, at that time neither Denmark nor Sweden are major military powers capable of preventing creation of the union or even seriously curbing its territorial appetites, especially in Livonia.
Yeah, Ivan's character would definitely be a problem. What about Austria, could they do something or are they too busy fighting their own wars? Last but not least, what could happen to Ducal Prussia?
I wonder if Ivan couldn't maneuver around the religion issue by working out a "Union of Brest." He stays in the Slavonic Rite, and enters communion with the Pope, and generally reaches an agreement that the Latin Rite is not to expand any further in his domains.
Interesting idea but his “charming” personality is still an issue: it would be very difficult for him not to be a sadist he was.
Could an Ivan who is more stable and politically astute foster Protestantism in Poland? AFAIK the country had a sizable reformed community until the reign of Sigismund III.
Ivan IV's candidacy was mainly just used as a political tool by the Lithuanian nobility to frighten the Polish side during the 1573 and 1576 elections, something like "if you try to elect a Habsburg for serious, then we're leaving the Union under Iwan". I'm not even sure if it even worked since, as you might imagine, that's a really ridiculous ultimatum (though Anti-Habsburgs won both elections in the end so 🤷♂️).
It's doubtful Ivan IV ever seriously considered standing for election, he did not send any envoys to the elections so he never actually stood as a candidate. His territorial demands were ridiculous and there wasn't a chance that he could have gotten a majority. This is still a good century before Russia can seriously influence the royal election - and as it was at war with the Republic in the 1570s his options were limited even more.
And, of course, only Catholics can get elected King, and if Ivan's candidacy developed beyond Lithuanian musings then this question would have been brought up instantly. He could offer his son Fyodor of course and get him to convert, not that it overcomes all the other issues in getting a Russian king on the throne in 1573 or 1576 but still.
Only way I can see it happening is if Russia achieves such a total and unbelievable victory in the Livonian War that there are Russian troops standing outside of the election field and Iwan decides that he wants the throne of Poland for himself. At that point, though, the scenario is changed massively.
Well yes, but many were redirected to Uniate churches(Eastern Churches in Communion with Rome) or converted to the Latin rite (For example belarus in 2009 There 1,600,000 Latin Rite Catholics More than 1 million was from ethnic Belarusians https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_in_Belarus)
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Could the Lithuanian nobility eventually go by their threat to have Ivan IV as king? That would lead to some interesting butterflies.
(Also no warning about this being too old to post so I assume this is ok)
Well if he was allowed to be king then he would quickly find himself overwhelmed a la Charles V
Pretty unlikely since people in the Commonwealth knew about his autocratic tendencies and inviting Ivan IV would be the same as submitting to Russia and becoming a part of it, which, to Lithuanian magnates who still fostered the image of Lithuania as a great independent Eastern European power, would have been detrimental.
Russia controlled that territory in OTL and they never got into that situation.
Maybe if they force Ivan to preserve their rights and privileges in exchange for a union? Or force a family member of his on the Lithuanian throne instead of a union?
In case of Poland, that's a strawman. The supporters of stronger royal power and opponents of development of "constitutionalism" were all big magnates, who didn't care that king broke the law, but wanted to keep for example having many offices at the same time, which nobility didn't want them to have.
That party was totally broken at union of Lublin which was their big failure, when Sigismund II Augustus betrayed his own supporters and gave away most of his power and the leftovers of it supported Habsburgs (this party was more concerned with Catholicism than your average noble).
Middle nobility believed die-hardly in ideological republicanism.