It's June in Bosnia and a Serbian assassin kills an important Austrian named Franz

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria#Background

Perhaps the most famous of these failed efforts was Bogdan Žerajić's attempt on 15 June 1910 to kill the iron-fisted Governor of Bosnia and Herzegovina, General Marijan Verešanin. Žerajić was a 22-year-old orthodox Serb from Nevesinje, Herzegovina who made frequent trips to Belgrade.[2] Just 12 days before the attempt on Verešanin, Žerajić had made an aborted attempt on the life of Emperor Franz Joseph.[3]

http://www.angelfire.com/sk/syukhtun/excerpt2.html

Mostar was a hair�s breadth away from being the site of the assassination of emperor Franz Joseph. The tyrant passed so close to the assassin Zerajic at the crowded train station that the latter could almost touch him.

WI the emperor had been killed?
 

MrP

Banned

Well, FF becomes KuK. He has a very poor relationship with Conrad (religious and personal animosity), so expect C to be chucked out on his ear if the initial campaigns are anything of a disappointment.

If there's war, the French are stuck with Plan XVI, which allows the Germans most of northern France.

Whether the British will turn up is quite uncertain. IOTL they didn't have plans to deploy to the continent until '11, and even then that was with Wilson and his small staff working for years to put the arrangements in place. If the BEF does deploy, it will be in a more haphazard fashion, and Wilson isn't even Director of Military Operations until August IOTL. If they do turn up, it's almost a certainty that they will deploy to cooperate with the Belgian Army, since the French are too far south.
 
If the French keep fighting after their initial reverses we end up with a fairly rapid Entente victory, as the Germans will be out of nitrates within about 9 months and will then be brutally crushed.
 
Why is everybody assuming there would be a war? Zerajic is not as easy to link with Serbia as the Black Hand and Francis Ferdinand may figure that Belgrade bending over backwards for him is sufficient.
 

Thande

Donor
Original idea, Pervy.

Although I am a decided novice in matters of the leadup to the Great War, my understanding is that the arms race situation as of 1910 - again, if war comes - would favour the Central Powers over that in 1914 in OTL.
 
I would strongly support David Fromkin's point put forward in 'Europe's Last Summer' that when it came to seeking a peaceful resolution to an political problem the two best individuals in Europe were Franz-Ferdinand and Kaiser Wilhelm II. Wilhelm of course is accepted - if not entirely pushed upon us - as being a bullying sword rattler, but as often as he created problems he also means other than military force.

Franz-Ferdinand was recounted as an individual that the moderating brake in Austro-Hungarian foreign relations regarding the Balkans and counterbalanced Conrad is military discussions involving his uncle. Its just unfortunate that when 1914 came around one had been assassinated and the other intentionally isolated from decision making by his General Staff and Cabinet.

However, much a day of reckoning is due the Serbs, it probably won't come in 1910/11. There will already be a lot happening in Vienna and Budapest as Franz-Ferdinand comes to the throne and the Court and the government gets a thorough cleaning out.
 

Susano

Banned
Why is everybody assuming there would be a war? Zerajic is not as easy to link with Serbia as the Black Hand and Francis Ferdinand may figure that Belgrade bending over backwards for him is sufficient.

Because its a better war situation for the CP than IOTL 1914. Thats reason enough for me! :D
(That being said, Belgrade did not bend over backwards IOTL).
 
I would strongly support David Fromkin's point put forward in 'Europe's Last Summer' that when it came to seeking a peaceful resolution to an political problem the two best individuals in Europe were Franz-Ferdinand and Kaiser Wilhelm II. Wilhelm of course is accepted - if not entirely pushed upon us - as being a bullying sword rattler, but as often as he created problems he also means other than military force.

I would think that Wilhelm II would back the Austrians even more fully iATL with the murder of not just a fellow member of a royal family (as FF was in OTL), but the killing of a fellow Kaiser (which was, I believe, the title the Austro-Hungarian monarch used, right?).

Franz-Ferdinand was recounted as an individual that the moderating brake in Austro-Hungarian foreign relations regarding the Balkans and counterbalanced Conrad is military discussions involving his uncle. Its just unfortunate that when 1914 came around one had been assassinated and the other intentionally isolated from decision making by his General Staff and Cabinet.

FF may have been a moderating brake on A-H foreign relations, but if he wants to carry out any kind of reform of the Dual Monarchy, he is going to need to break the power of the Magyars in Hungary. And the only way to do that is through a victorious war (which was why Austria pushed Serbia in '14 OTL)

However, much a day of reckoning is due the Serbs, it probably won't come in 1910/11. There will already be a lot happening in Vienna and Budapest as Franz-Ferdinand comes to the throne and the Court and the government gets a thorough cleaning out.

The best way to get rid of all that dead wood is a war- it'll allow FF to move FJ's old supporters in the military out, and build a power base that'll allow FF to carry out his reforms to the Dual Monarchy.
 
Because its a better war situation for the CP than IOTL 1914. Thats reason enough for me! :D
(That being said, Belgrade did not bend over backwards IOTL).

I diagree. As I mention above, this is pre-Haber process it's an incredibly worse war position for the CP. Given the limitations of logistics in the era I'd be quite confident they'd suffer a quite rapid and very thorough defeat.
 

Thande

Donor
I diagree. As I mention above, this is pre-Haber process it's an incredibly worse war position for the CP. Given the limitations of logistics in the era I'd be quite confident they'd suffer a quite rapid and very thorough defeat.
That is an excellent point. Unless the CPs can make a rapid breakthrough, guano will come and bite them in the backside.
 

Susano

Banned
That is an excellent point. Unless the CPs can make a rapid breakthrough, guano will come and bite them in the backside.

Given the state of the French army and the diplomatic situation with Italy a quick breakthrough and the imagined "quick victorious war" is entirely possible, though.
 
If the Austrians had played their cards right, there could've been a limited war in 1914, and I suspect the situation wouldn't change much in 1910-- in fact, even moreso in 1910, in that it was the beloved kaiser. We have to remember that the Kaiser was beloved not just in A-H, but in most of Europe as well; everybody has that soft side for that nice graying grandpa. The Archduke, OTOH, wasn't liked very much, yet the outpouring of sympathy for him throughout Europe was genuine and massive. Now imagine for the the beloved Papa Franz. In the immediate aftermath, everyone expected a war and not even the Russian government was sure it could support Serbia over it, and certainly the French were vaccilating. If the Austrians had struck when the world was still mourning and smashed Serbia in short time, it could've presented a fait accompli to the Entente Powers. Instead, the idiots at the Ballplatz vaccillated and then decided to go to war after the Serbs had bent over backward to appease them, in the process evaporating whatever sympathies the Austrians had and painting them black as thugs.
 

MrP

Banned
Given the state of the French army and the diplomatic situation with Italy a quick breakthrough and the imagined "quick victorious war" is entirely possible, though.

The French aren't under Joffre, but the far more cautious Michel. His plan was to sit back and wait for the main German thrust to become apparent, and only then to attack. I'll have to check whether he's one of the chaps with Christmas Syndrome, but off the top of my head, I don't think he was.
 
If the Austrians had played their cards right, there could've been a limited war in 1914, and I suspect the situation wouldn't change much in 1910-- in fact, even moreso in 1910, in that it was the beloved kaiser. We have to remember that the Kaiser was beloved not just in A-H, but in most of Europe as well; everybody has that soft side for that nice graying grandpa. The Archduke, OTOH, wasn't liked very much, yet the outpouring of sympathy for him throughout Europe was genuine and massive. Now imagine for the the beloved Papa Franz. In the immediate aftermath, everyone expected a war and not even the Russian government was sure it could support Serbia over it, and certainly the French were vaccilating. If the Austrians had struck when the world was still mourning and smashed Serbia in short time, it could've presented a fait accompli to the Entente Powers. Instead, the idiots at the Ballplatz vaccillated and then decided to go to war after the Serbs had bent over backward to appease them, in the process evaporating whatever sympathies the Austrians had and painting them black as thugs.

I agree with this. The Emperor FF is going to need a war as I stated before, to accomplish his domestic agenda (any kind of reform in A-H needs the Magyars cowed), and with Franz Josef assassinated he has the most excellent chance of his reign.

If FF quickly goes to war against the Serbians, he'll have a free hand. The Germans will be backing him, and the Russians probably won't move to support Serbia, since the Serbians just murdered a fellow Emperor. Without a Russian move the French and British won't move either, as neither was willing to fight for just Serbia.

So what does Emperor FF actually want? I know that there is some cloudy ideas of perhaps introducing a "Triple" or "Quadruple" Monarchy, with Czechs or Yugoslavs (Croats, Bosniacs, and Serbs) getting their own kingdoms. How does this the war against the Serbs fit into this plan?
 
I agree with this. The Emperor FF is going to need a war as I stated before, to accomplish his domestic agenda (any kind of reform in A-H needs the Magyars cowed), and with Franz Josef assassinated he has the most excellent chance of his reign.

If FF quickly goes to war against the Serbians, he'll have a free hand. The Germans will be backing him, and the Russians probably won't move to support Serbia, since the Serbians just murdered a fellow Emperor. Without a Russian move the French and British won't move either, as neither was willing to fight for just Serbia.

So what does Emperor FF actually want? I know that there is some cloudy ideas of perhaps introducing a "Triple" or "Quadruple" Monarchy, with Czechs or Yugoslavs (Croats, Bosniacs, and Serbs) getting their own kingdoms. How does this the war against the Serbs fit into this plan?

The Russian's not are going to abandon the Serbs and the AH army will move slowly as always to get into position. Don't think Nicholas II, nor particularly his cabinet, will sell out Belgrade on the heels of their humiliation during the Bosnian Crisis of 1908. So I see things playing out exactly as in 1914, tho the armies of the Balkan nations are not worn out from the later Balkan Wars against the Ottomans.
 
So I see things playing out exactly as in 1914, tho the armies of the Balkan nations are not worn out from the later Balkan Wars against the Ottomans.

The fact that this is before the Balkan Wars means that the Serbian army can't move south and flee to Albania and Salonica (or even Montenegro, which it doesn't border yet) when A-H finally pushes through.

OTOH Bulgaria is not so pissed off at the Serbians yet and might help them, at least out of fear that a crushed Serbia and humiliated Russia benefits Turkey. But they'd expect something in return: a renounciation of Serbian ambitions in Macedonia and possibly territorial compensations.
 
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