It's A Long Way To Nagasaki: The Anglo-Japanese War

[SealTheRealDeal]

What about India?

As a colony rather than a Dominion it had little say in the matter. It was automatically at war as soon as Britain declared.

I will get into India's internal politics as the timeline progresses and India starts getting hit by the butterflies of this war, and I certainly have been giving thought to what those would be. However, I feel this post ended up being long enough without having covered the domestic reaction of every colony from Belize to Tonga.

If you have any ideas on how India would be changed ittl feel free to post them, speculation and feedback are always welcome.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Hopes Dashed: The Japanese Commit

For those within the besieged city they had reason to be hopeful.

The initial bombardment and assault had caught the city’s garrison flat footed, but the assaulting forces pulled back after lieutenant general Hitoshi Imamura recalled his men upon finding none of the promised NRA encampments in the New Territories. For a time it seemed that this was a mere incident which would be resolved soon enough. However, artillery exchanges continued and the northern Districts remained occupied. The 5th division’s assault only resumed in earnest after the British declaration of war, by which point the garrison forces were dug in for a proper fight.

Hitoshi Imamura, commander of the 5th division​

The city’s chances of success seemingly remained high. For one, the Hong Kong Garrison was only a little smaller than a standard British division. Mind you, a Japanese division was nearly 50% larger than a British division, but when one accounted for the colony’s strong fortifications many felt it was a fair fight. Additionally, the attempts by the Chinese to relieve the city seemingly shifted things into Britain’s favour.

The other major factor in initial British optimism was the inactivity of the IJN. The 5th Fleet had supported the IJA’s initial actions in the Canton Operation, but against Hong Kong neither its cruisers nor its Flight Group were anywhere to be seen. It seemed that the IJN was putting its foot down on the army’s adventurism.

The city’s defenders were thus able to conduct an orderly fighting withdrawal back to the Gin Drinkers Line where they settled in for a long siege.

However Japanese command wasn’t content to let this situation remain. Andō’s effort to dismiss Imamura was overruled. Meanwhile Imamura was informed that on this occasion his superiors were willing to interpret the matter as a communications failure on Andō’s part, but that the matter could be revisited if his future conduct warranted it.

The 5th Division would be reinforced with the 21st Army’s 15cm Howitzers, and the IJN was browbeat into committing its forces. The second phase of the Battle of Hong Kong was about to begin.


The Last Stand of the Gin Drinkers: British No Longer Means Best

A compromised section of the Gin Drinkers Line​

On the 11th of November the Hong Kong garrison found their fortifications being pounded into ruble and that their assets being moved around behind the line were coming under air attack.

Any hope of holding out seemed to disappear then and there. Private David Fletcher provides a first hand account of the day in his autobiographical novel, Dead Man Walking:

As the world comes back into focus, I find myself unable to remember where I am. My vision is blurred red, my left ear rings. My ability to hear drifts in and out. Above me, streaks of tracer fire smeared across an overcast sky lance between the glittering forms of aircraft in the midst of a life and death dance. I hear artillery fire, there’s screaming all around me. I can’t tell if it’s mine, or someone else’s. I try to get up, but everything is numb. Am I paralyzed? My hand twitches, and I feel lancing pain up my arm where it hit the ground. Now, I am awake.

Hong Kong. I am in Hong Kong.

I feel a weight over my hand. It’s my rifle, finish battered from the hard fall against gravel and debris. I grab it, and use it to force myself to my feet. My lungs burn with smoke. There’s a taste of death in my mouth, coppery and foul. I identify where the screaming is coming from. The mortar that flattened me landed in the midst of my section, just behind me. Lawhead is the only one intact enough to be recognizably human, but he’s still punched through with shrapnel. He’s leaking everywhere, crimson blood marring his khaki combats. He’s probably done for, but he’s my buddy. I can’t leave him. I stagger over, wiping blood from my eyes, flowing freely from a gash on my forehead. I grab Lawhead by his webbing, and begin dragging him to the reserve line.

There’s booted feet and yelling on the other side of the palisade. The Japanese are coming. I raise my rifle weakly. I know that I can’t fight off what’s coming. It wavers in weak hands and smashed fingers. The first thing over the line is a flag, white and crimson. It flutters in the stifling air, flowing with the advance of its wielder. Another Japanese soldier comes over. He wears khaki so bleached as to be almost white. A canvas sun shield hangs from his helmet, silhouetting his head. I line up my sight as best as I can and pull the trigger.

*click*

“Fuck!” I swear, fumbling with the bolt, attempting to eject my spent round. It’s too late, the Japanese infantryman has seen me. He levels his rifle, and screams something that I don’t understand. Lawhead’s breathing heavily. His eyes are glazing over. Maybe they can save him.

I make my decision.

I let the rifle drop and slowly raise my hands.

The Japanese soldier strides towards me, face twisted, shouting harshly. I nod to Lawhead.

“Please,” I say, slurring.

The Japanese soldier glances at Lawhead.

Lawhead is gaping, his breathing is shallow.
The Jap bayonets him. Lawhead issues a small gasp of pain, more a gasp than a cry, and sinks down. His murderer twists the bayonet in him and pulls it out in one quick, contemptuous motion. Blood drips down the blade.

“What the fuck are you doing, you crazy goddamn slant?” I shout at him, “We’re prisoners of war! You can-”

He smashes me across the mouth with the butt of his weapon. I hit the ground hard, mouth on fire, tasting warm, metallic blood. I feel a tooth floating around in there. I’m dazed, but I don’t want to go down this way. I roll over, trying to rise to my feet. A boot connects with my ribs. I hear something crack, and I feel as though someone has detonated a grenade in my chest. I go down again, reeling and gagging with the agony.

The Japanese man’s face is contorted with hatred and disdain, and he raises his rifle to bayonet me as well. I’m about to die. I try not to scream, to give him anything to enjoy.

The man stops as a figure crosses in front of my swimming vision. He wears a long coat, carries a pistol. He’s shouting something. I’m trying to speak, I’m trying to ask for help. My mouth refuses to move. I’m left almost face down, cheek pressed against pavement and shattered glass, staring at the booted, dust covered feet of my soon-to-be executioners. I’m going to die, I think again.

But not today.

I am hauled to my feet, blood dribbling down the front of my tunic.

Lawhead’s gone. His eyes are rolled back.

That’s the last thing I see before the blindfold is pulled over my eyes, and I’m thrown into the back of a truck. Again, I bite back a scream as I slam hard into a floor piled high with the bodies of men I can’t see. I don’t know if they’re alive or dead. The floor is sticky. I know it’s blood. There will be plenty of screaming in the months to come.

I don’t know it yet, but I am being taken to hell.[1]

Across the Gin Drinker’s line similar scenes played out. Private Fletcher was one of the lucky ones.[2] Lt. gen. Imamura was committed to ensuring the good conduct of his troops, but his word was severely undermined by the well known friction between him and the Army commander. Fletcher’s “saviour” was likely one of the officers who remained more loyal to their division commander than to Andō.

The Gin Drinkers Line and the areas behind it would last only five days with the last forces being evicted from the devils peak redoubt on the evening of the 15th.

A substantial portion of the garrison had managed to regroup on Hong Kong Island. On the seventeenth the IJA would cross the harbour and, with the support of the Japanese heavy cruiser Myōkō secured beach heads on the island’s northern and northeastern shores. Fighting on the island would rage for another five days, the colonial government finally surrendering on the 23rd.


Hong Kong Surrenders: The Occupation of the City

The surrender of the British ushered in a dark chapter of the city’s history. As the flag atop Government House was changed a platoon entered the grounds of St. Stephan’s College and set about bayoneting the wounded in its infirmary. Lt. gen. Imamura saw to it that the perpetrators were immediately court martialed, but General Rikichi Andō would lean heavily on the judge for clemency. With the tensions between the two once again flaring IJA command would see to it that both were hastily promoted to other theatres.[3]

When Hong Kong’s new governor, Kenji Doihara, assumed office there was a rush to find evidence of Britain’s harbouring of NRA personnel. The city was subject to an intense shakedown during which all potential weapons were seized. Amongst the seized “war materials” that the Japanese press photographed were three platoons worth of mismatched and in many cases bullet ridden NRA uniforms and kit,[4] “proving” that Britain rather than Japan had been acting in bad faith.

Following this shake down governor Doihara set about making Hong Kong into a brothel “satisfactory to the tastes of the officer corps.” and extensive action was taken against the local Triads to clear the way for the entry of Doihara’s affiliated cartels.

---

[1] big thanks to my pal Ur-Domerator for the vignette.

[2] well, lucky if one considers being sent to Pingfang an improvement over being executed.

[3] Andō to the governorship of Taiwan, Imamura received command over the 4th Army.

[4] believed to have actually been acquired from the disastrous Chinese counter attacks.

A/N:
Imagine my shock when the head of the 5th division turned out to be the IJA officer perhaps best known for his observance of the rules of war.

I normally post at 9pm but I'm curious to see if I'll get any more traction posting at noon.

Next time we'll finally get onto a naval campaign.

 

[generalurist]

Hong Kong was never going to last long. Let's see how the Royal Navy fairs against the IJN.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

The fall of Hong Kong is going to have repercussions for the British government.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Triads vs Yakuza 1938.
The Martial Arts Battle of the Century.

This TL is quite interesting. Keep it going.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Hong Kong was never going to last long. Let's see how the Royal Navy fairs against the IJN.

Yeah I'm really not sure why the Royal Army ever though the Gin Drinker's line would be sufficient to hold for any extended period of time.

The naval war will be interesting, both navies have their air assets piloted by highly trained career pilots (as opposed to the very green pilots the Brits were down to by the time of the Indian Ocean Raid and the even greener pilots the IJN were stuck with post-Midway). Yet neither have their good planes just yet (though the Japanese generally have a bit of an edge, and a big lead in torpedo bombers), and neither has quite crystallized their doctrine. They've also developed some different strengths which yield an interplay that's quite interesting to consider.

Equally interesting to consider is the prospect of how the naval campaigns will take shape. The Japanese blitz through the Malay barrier was the product of over a year of planning and access to the ports of French Indochina, it probably can't be exactly replicated TTL. At the same time the British plan, to steam out from Singapore and relieve Hong Kong is a bit obsolete now that Hong Kong has fallen.

The fall of Hong Kong is going to have repercussions for the British government.

It's a big wake up call to any who assumed this would be a quick colonial spat, that's for certain.

There will definitely be in investigation in to whether anyone can be held at fault for this, probably centred on the First Lord of the Admiralty, so if Stanhope isn't gone yet he's definitely gone now.

Triads vs Yakuza 1938.
The Martial Arts Battle of the Century.

This TL is quite interesting. Keep it going.

Thank you!

And as interesting as karate vs wing chun matches deciding the fate of Hong Kong would be, Doihara cartel was only Japanese in its upper most echelons. It was mostly made up of Chinese opium dealers and White Russian prostitutes. So it'd be kung fu vs wing chun!

 

[BlackDragon98]

Yeah I'm really not sure why the Royal Army ever though the Gin Drinker's line would be sufficient to hold for any extended period of time.

The naval war will be interesting, both navies have their air assets piloted by highly trained career pilots (as opposed to the very green pilots the Brits were down to by the time of the Indian Ocean Raid and the even greener pilots the IJN were stuck with post-Midway). Yet neither have their good planes just yet (though the Japanese generally have a bit of an edge, and a big lead in torpedo bombers), and neither has quite crystallized their doctrine. They've also developed some different strengths which yield an interplay that's quite interesting to consider.

Equally interesting to consider is the prospect of how the naval campaigns will take shape. The Japanese blitz through the Malay barrier was the product of over a year of planning and access to the ports of French Indochina, it probably can't be exactly replicated TTL. At the same time the British plan, to steam out from Singapore and relieve Hong Kong is a bit obsolete now that Hong Kong has fallen.


It's a big wake up call to any who assumed this would be a quick colonial spat, that's for certain.

There will definitely be in investigation in to whether anyone can be held at fault for this, probably centred on the First Lord of the Admiralty, so if Stanhope isn't gone yet he's definitely gone now.


Thank you!

And as interesting as karate vs wing chun matches deciding the fate of Hong Kong would be, Doihara cartel was only Japanese in its upper most echelons. It was mostly made up of Chinese opium dealers and White Russian prostitutes. So it'd be kung fu vs wing chun!

Maybe there'll be a martial arts match like the one showing in the Ip Man movie where he fights the IJA officer?
I'm interested to see what kind of martial arts there will be.
And yes, the Doihara cartel was only lead by Japanese personnel.
One of the reasons the Japanese were so successful in their invasion was because they infiltrated the NRA and KMT rather extensively after 1931.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Maybe there'll be a martial arts match like the one showing in the Ip Man movie where he fights the IJA officer?
I'm interested to see what kind of martial arts there will be.
And yes, the Doihara cartel was only lead by Japanese personnel.
One of the reasons the Japanese were so successful in their invasion was because they infiltrated the NRA and KMT rather extensively after 1931.

Speaking of Ip Man, maybe KMT intelligence officer Yip Kai-man will be sent to infiltrate Japanese Hong Kong

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

A Not So Short List: IJN Campaign Priorities

In Tokyo the IJN was faced with a problem.

Japan and its Empire were a fairly compact area. This gave them a strong defensive position as they could concentrate their fleet in the same area and easily move to head of an attack from any side. The British by contrast had possessions stretched across nearly the entire pacific rim, and with no means to defend all of them.

However, America’s recognition of the war between the UK and Japan meant that Japan was cut off from American oil. This meant that Japan could not rely on its defensive advantages. The impetus was on Japan to strike. Additionally many of the Japanese navy’s upper ranks had a fairly realistic appreciation of the industrial balance. The UK out produced Japan in every category of manufacturing, and ships were no exception. Japan needed to hit fast and hard.

The question was where.

The ship building facilities of Canada and Australia? Too far out of the way and not an immediate threat.

Britain’s assorted Pacific island colonies? While it would be useful, and perhaps even easy, to sever the supply line from Australia to Canada, these were again not an immediate threat.

The Malay Barrier on the other hand was a clear front runner. The Australian half of Papua and the British possessions on Borneo and the Malay Peninsula were obvious targets. Britain would have a hard time breaking into the Pacific if Singapore and Rabaul were to be strongly occupied. In addition to direct control over Brunei’s oil fields, this would also put the Dutch East Indies in a vice-like grip, securing the sea lanes for oil tankers and providing excellent staging grounds for a take over should the Dutch put up an embargo of their own.

Preparations for such a strike took some time. Stockpiles of equipment and supplies had to be prepared on Formosa for the western pincer and Truk for the western one.

However, mounting pressure to get in the decisive blow before Britain can work itself up to a proper war footing and the need to push British sub bases away[1] was enough to overcome the IJN’s historical aversion to splitting their forces ahead of decisive actions.


The Decisive Action: The Western Pincer Weighs Anchor

On December 24 1938 the western pincer departed Takao, Formosa.

Despite making up only half of Japan’s striking force, the naval force bearing down on Borneo was about as capable as the entire navy of France or Italy. It had three aircraft carriers, seven battleships, three seaplane tenders, four heavy cruisers, seven light cruisers, and 21 destroyers, and numerous smaller craft.

The major fleet assets of the weststern pincer were organized as such:

First Battleship Division:
-Ise (Battleship) (Flag)
-Hyūga (Battleship)
-Fusō (Battleship)
-Yamashiro (Battleship)

Third Battleship Division:
-Kongō (Battleship)
-Kirishima (Battleship)
-Haruna (Battleship)

First Carrier Division:
-Kaga (Fleet Carrier)
-Akagi (Fleet Carrier) [2]
-Hōshō (Light Carrier)

Third Carrier Division:
-Kamoi (Seaplane Tender)
-Kagu Maru (Seaplane Tender)
-Kamikawa Maru (Seaplane Tender)

Japanese Battleship Ise​

Additionally, vast numbers of transport ships would tag along to ferry over the newly established Malayan Area Army, consisting of the new 6th army and the 12th army.

The centrepiece of the 6th army was the Imperial Guards Division. However, perhaps more intimidating was the accompanying 16th Division which had recently partook in the bloody Battle of Wuhan and was accordingly well acclimated to high intensity operations.

Additional specialization was provided for by the Taiwan Independent Combined Brigade. It had previously primarily served as Formosa’s garrison force and accordingly had more limited experience in China. However, it had been drilled extensively in amphibious operations, and it was ideal for the anticipated forced entry operation.

Due to shipping constraints the 12th army would remain on Taiwan and slowly be ferried in after Borneo had been secured. The 12th Army had been primarily a training body and rear area security force. It was composed of the 21st division, a very new triangular division, and the 114th division, which was also fairly new yet was still organized as a square division. That such a comparatively weak force was also selected is indicative of their intended role as rear area security as the 6th moved on.


Like a Tsunami Bearing Down on Australia: The Eastern Pincer Weighs Anchor

On December 25 1938 the eastern pincer departed Truk.

For its naval component it included two battleships, three aircraft carriers, two seaplane tenders, two heavy cruisers, five light cruisers, 14 destroyers, and many lighter fleet assets.

The Major fleet assets of the eastern pincer were organized as such:

Second Battleship Division:
-Nagato (Battleship) (Flag)
-Mutsu (Battleship)

Second Carrier Division:
-Sōryū (Fleet Carrier)
-Ryūjō (Light Carrier)

Fourth Carrier Division:
-Notoro (Seaplane Tender)
-Kinugasa Maru (Seaplane Tender)

Japanese Battleship Nagato​

Accompanying them were the 20th Infantry Division and the 6th Infantry Division. Both were veterans of the Second Sino-Japanese War, though not equally so. Whereas the 20th had returned to garrison duties in Korea after a short and almost uneventful tour of North China in 1937, the 6th had participated in the battles of Beijing, Nanking, and Wuhan. However, both had participated in the Beiping–Hankou Railway Operation and so there was some degree of familiarity and companionship between the two despite their contrasting resumes. Due to shipping constraints only the 6th would be in the first wave, with the 20th being ferried over afterwards.

The bulk of the force would be sent to Papua, where the plan was to drive the Anglo-Australians from the island and threaten Australia itself from Port Moresby. Little resistance was expected on New Britain and the surrounding islands. The town of Rabul had been obliterated the previous year by a volcanic eruption and it was hoped that the anglos would not waste their resources garrisoning a ghost town. A single brigade of the 6th division would be tasked with securing them.

Soldiers of the IJA's 6th Division​

---

[1] On November 17 a cargo ship sending supplies to IJA forces committed to Hong Kong was torpedoed and lost with all hands, this marked the start of daily shipping losses to RN submarines.

[2] Akagi had been rushed through its post refit trials to partake in the operation.


A/N:
*WAAAAAAANNNNNNNKKKKKEEEEEEERRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!! ight I'll stop outing myself as a weeb...

Yeah a bit of a skimpy update, some IRL stuff has cropped up, and I’ll admit that I didn’t anticipate how much of a bother keeping track of which ships are going where would be, and accordingly I slacked hard for most of the week lol.

 

[generalurist]

However, mounting pressure to get in the decisive blow before Britain can work itself up to a proper war footing and the need to push British sub bases away[1] was enough to overcome the IJN’s historical aversion to splitting their forces ahead of decisive actions.

I see the IJN is taking the submarine threat seriously. I'm curious how the submarine war will go in TTL, when Japan isn't comedically outmatched.

 

[CV(N)-6]

What has the RN been able to move in? I believe their forces there when war began amounted to a carrier, half a dozen cruisers, and a flotilla of destroyers

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

What has the RN been able to move in? I believe their forces there when war began amounted to a carrier, half a dozen cruisers, and a flotilla of destroyers

I'll cover this in more detail in my next post but some pretty major units from the Mediterranean fleet have gotten over (I'm thinking the 1st Battle Squadron as well as the battlecruisers and Glorious). For the Home fleet's contribution I'm thinking Hermes and the NelRods having arrived already with Ark Royal on route.

I see the IJN is taking the submarine threat seriously. I'm curious how the submarine war will go in TTL, when Japan isn't comedically outmatched.

Whether or not they'll retain that attention to it, and develop actual ASW capabilities remains to be seen. That said they'll definitely have to do that if they fail to secure the UK's forward possessions.

 

[GrahamB]

I'm late to the party as usual but this is an easy add to the watch list. Japan starting the Pacific war without forethought is a scenario I've not considered before so this is going to be an interesting ride!

I wonder what effect this will have on Europe: with Britain already on a war footing and France ramping up production to supply them old Adolf might content himself to sit back and watch the show before getting adventurous in Poland. Who knows, maybe he'll wait long enough to finish or get bored with his Plan Z? I suspect Stalin's preparations will wait patiently over the border "just in case" but it might suit him to sit the whole thing out. Franco and Mussolini are the wildcards in the Mediterranean who might take advantage of attention focused elsewhere to make some opportunistic grabs.
It'll be interesting to see how carefully Japan avoids making the same mistake in the Philippines that they did in Hong Kong, my money's on a credible accident MacArthur will spit his pipe out over.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Cool start!

[3] the memoirs of some nationalists in the Dutch government have indicated that there was also some consternation about perfidious albion swooping in to steal Dutch Colonies as they had in the Napoleonic Wars, but no documentation indicates that these fears were in anyway reflected or represented in official policy.

Though there must have been some ministers who were still sore about the Boer-wars, during the Interbellum the various Dutch governments were pretty frank about the fact that the DEI was pretty close to being a British protectorate already. .

To those in the know, the Dutch East Indies were in an extremely precarious position. The Dutch had had growing concerns about Japanese aggression since the invasion of Manchuria.[3] What’s more, the fact that Britain’s colonies nearest Japan were all either nearby or outright bordering the DEI, meaning that it was almost certain fighting would spill over even if the opposing sides tried to respect Dutch neutrality. Diplomatic feelers were sent to both sides to gain guarantees.

The British were quick to point out that Hong Kong had been subject to an unprovoked attack, and that, regrettably, when the Japanese violate the neutrality of the DEI Britain will be forced to act in kind.

The Japanese response at first seemed uncharacteristically reserved, “The Empire of Japan will strive to do all in its power to maintain the centuries-old amicable mercantile relation with the Kingdom of the Netherlands.” However, an ultimatum could be inferred; that an embargo would be viewed as an act of war.

The Dutch government issued its statements, wishing for a prompt end to the conflict, and denouncing Japan’s aggression. However it stopped short of issuing any sort of embargo, a matter it rationalized to Britain on the basis that Japan got over 90% of its oil from the US and that an embargo would therefore be only an empty provocation.

While I do agree that the Dutch government would try its upmost best to stay out of the war, that doesn't mean there is going to be total neutrality. For one, prime-minister Colijn was very pro-British. Between 1914 en 1922 he was CEO of the Bataafsche Petroleum Maatschappij, a subsidiary of Shell, the company where he becomes a CEO of later on as well. When he became prime-minster in the '30s he followed British advice for the defense of the DEI, which led to the procurement of the Martin B-10. In SEA, Dutch power is very much linked to British power and there is noone who is more convinced of that than Colijn. Does that mean that the Netherlands is going to be as gung-ho about joining the war against Japans as OTL (Dutch were the first to issue a DOW on Japan, even before the US)? Most certainly not. But I can imagine that it will not take long before Anglo-aligned oil companies will stop deliveries to Japan, Dutch-flagged vessels will leave Japanese waters, etc. Ofcourse all this does depend on the opening rounds. If the British get knocked out quick the Dutch will have to adapt. Given differences between OTL and ATL I do doubt that though. The Britons might want to keep the Netherlands friendly but neutral as that would make the Malay Barrier impregnable. Which would also be an incentive for the Japanese to break that neutrality though.

Relatively speaking the Dutch defenses of the archipelago had a few things on the plus side compared to OTL 1941. The Martin B-10 was not obsolete yet and the naval forces in Asia were still pretty committed to the submarine-based doctrine of the Interbellum, which can very well give a (as in singular) Japanese invasion a bloody nose. The KNIL was nothing like the motorised/mechanized force it would be in 1941 but there are sources that claim this is actually positive. This means they won't be roadbound and can thus make much beter use of the terrain. The reorganization also did pretty much destroy the espirit-de-corps of the native units as those operated much like an extended family, with the Dutch captain as a father-figure.

Then there are also colonial issues to consider. In 1938 the Dutch government refused to enter negotiations about a route to Dominion status for the Dutch East Indies. A greater Asian War will certainly re-ignite the discussion, at the least in the colony itself. Colijn and his cabinets were pretty hardline about this but the pressure will mount after every Japanese victory. Now the Indonesian Nationalist leaders were far from Japanese stooges. In fact, Soekarno and a few others fully expected to be arrested after the Japanese invasion. There is potential for an understanding between the two sides, the question is if the Dutch government gives in enough and in time before the Nationalists start demanding too much too soon.

 

[Conveyancer]

Looking forward to more of this please. Don't think I've seen a scenario like it before.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

It'll be interesting to see what the RN can get out to Singapore in time.

And how long the Japanese can go before they widen the War any further by some insane act of aggression.


Watched with interest.

 

[Puzzle]

One nice part about the timeline is that without the US involved there's much less certainty about the eventual outcome. It's good to see real alternate history, as opposed to slightly different around the edges history.

 

[King Augeas]

Yeah this is a really interesting one - could go any way depending on what happens in Europe.

Does Germany still invade Czechoslovakia? Does Hitler think Britain is distracted sufficiently?
Do Britain and France feel sufficiently threatened by the prospect of war in Europe and south-east Asia to push through the negotiations with Stalin and forestall the MR Pact?
How will French and Dutch opinions evolve as the war expands?
How will the US/French react to the encirclement of the Philippines/Indochina?

Could easily see the RN getting a bloody nose and the British being limited to fortifying Malaya and attrition via submarine. Then who knows how the fascists in Europe will react.

 

[HJ Tulp]

This could also have negative repercussions for Nazi expansion if it makes the British and French mare amendable to an alliance with the Soviets.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

This could also have negative repercussions for Nazi expansion if it makes the British and French mare amendable to an alliance with the Soviets.

Britain on a War footing this much earlier mean it’s easier to respond with force to Nazi expansionism and to make the Polish guarantee (if it’s made, ITTL) have more to it. A democracy mobilised for War is easier to get into another War, than one at Peace.