Considering that and the nations political divisions it would not surprise me if they feel to civil war or had a coup.
 
France's economy is frankly in the shitter. Its 1937 right?

In 1932, the Great Depression took the French economy kicked the shit out of it, then shook it until its lunch money came out, then tossed it into a dryer on tumble dry. To put it bluntly, their economy imploded so fucking hard that they country needed a bailout.
OTL, France was slowly getting out of the depression from 1936 onward. The French right and center were very financially conservative, and, outside the Popular Front period, the string of the purse were really tight. For example, in 1934, with the crisis in full swing, the French government was still cutting expanses and buying gold on the market.
ITTL, the OTL rearmament will still procede, maybe at a slower pace after the German Civil War begun. Plus, the British Empire will buy raw materials, steel and mechanical parts simply to optimize their industrial production.
So, all in all, France might be even or slightly worse than OTL.

Considering that and the nations political divisions it would not surprise me if they feel to civil war or had a coup.
Why ? You have less pressure than OTL with Germany in civil war.
 
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Why ? You have less pressure than OTL with Germany in civil war.
People on the forum tend to have a very old fashioned view that the Third Republic was always five minutes away from total collapse at any given moment. Also that the monarchy will successfully be restored as well.

Personally, I'd expect the Republic to continue muddling along. It has less pressure on its right flank, the British will be willing buyers (and eager to avoid any diplomatic disputes,) Italy won't try anything with the Germans in disarray... more years of mediocrity beckon, I think.

There are worse fates for a nation..
 
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People on the forum tend to have a very old fashioned view that the Third Republic was always five minutes away from total collapse at any given moment. Also that the monarchy will successfully be restored as well.

Personally, I'd expect the Republic to continue muddling along. It has less pressure on its right flank, the British will be willing buyers (and eager to avoid any diplomatic disputes,) Italy won't try anything with the Germans in disarray... more years of mediocrity beckon, I think.

There are worse fates for a nation..
Mmmm, that could also be an reason for some groups to make a move because they feel that their chances are dwindeling and have to act before things are shimmering down.
 
Mmmm, that could also be an reason for some groups to make a move because they feel that their chances are dwindeling and have to act before things are shimmering down.

And given their total inability to capitalise on a more volatile situation in 1934, the lack of any actual organisation in the officer corps (despite post war mythologising), and a better economic outlook, we can expect any such attempt to be another failure.
 
The IIIrd Republic is obviously going to be enormously strenghtened ITTL. :)

First, they aren't going to stop the disarmament drive anytime soon - Germany is in a civil war, yes, but all the parties involved are dedicated to agressive nationalism and militarism. The civil war is likely to be viewed as a welcome, temporary respite.

Second, the République has come a long way since 1934, both institutionally and politically. Unsexy but crucial reforms in 1936-37 strenghtened the hand of the government - eg. the establishment of an independent Premiership, complete with administrative staff and building, as opposed to the President of the Council (PM equivalent) cumulating his post with some other ministry and merely taking over the later's staff. The instability of the 30s was, deep-down, due to political divisions, and those are likely to be toned down in ITTL 1940. OtL, after 39 the Communists were virtually eliminated as a political force, and 38-39 saw the rise of a new, broad-church nationalist right party (the Party Social Français) which seemed poised to win the 1940 elections. OTL, those were postponed sine die because of the war ; ITTL, they must have taken place, and I would guess were won by the PSF with a strong socialist (SFIO) opposition and a center-left (Radicaux) reduced but still significant. Given the Radicaux' legendary flexibility and the Left as a whole's commitment to national defense, there's a fairly clear Right-center coalition with SFIO tacit support.

Third, economically, a see-saw recovery had started after 1936. France really was hit by the crisis after the 1933 US devaluation, coming on top of the 1931 UK one; conservative governments refused to devalue the Franc to make French exports competitive again. The Popular Front pursued a policy of devaluation plus boosting demand, but was thwarted by the international conjoncture and, to a lesser extent, the impact of its work laws on maximum work time. From 38 on, Daladier lessened the burden of the work laws, devalued again, and pumped cash into the war economy, while the world economy was recovering ; as a result, by 39 the economy was expanding rapidly. ITTL, the was didn't cut that short, they can still trade with the US, and they are definitely going to be supplying the British war economy. In fact, I strongly suspect French leaders will see supplying Britain with military and dual-use kit they can spare in exchange for resounding sterlings an excellent way to keep their war industries running and expanding while the Germans are busy.

Of course, I'm French and somehow biased :) But it's hard to see how France wouldn't do massively better being spared one of its two immense XXth century ordeals. And, I like to remind readers on here from time to time, 1940 France was a strong nation ready for the war, not a pushover - unless of course you're playing HOIV :)
 
. And, I like to remind readers on here from time to time, 1940 France was a strong nation ready for the war, not a pushover - unless of course you're playing HOIV :)

On paper I would say that France was ready for war.

But idiotic decisions, the collaborators, combined with Generals who preferred telephones, etcerta. definitely handicapped them.
 
On paper I would say that France was ready for war.

But idiotic decisions, the collaborators, combined with Generals who preferred telephones, etcerta. definitely handicapped them.
Or generals who would not use telephones but insisted on despatch riders......
 
And so much non-admitted PTSD in the decision-making demographic....
If it was PTSD it would be forgiveable with the high command in France it was just a refusal to move past Napoleonic concepts. Not that N would have had any time for that sort of conservatism
 
If it was PTSD it would be forgiveable with the high command in France it was just a refusal to move past Napoleonic concepts. Not that N would have had any time for that sort of conservatism
I think it is pretty obvious that the people who were in the French government making decisions were terrified of what they thought was going to be a repeat of the First World War and consequently it partly contributed to the paralyzed dynamics which led to (or rather, helped) the quick defeat it suffered in OTL.
 
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