Really hard to say with any degree of finality what they would opt for tbh. Remember that while we know how the OTL campaign against France went, no one in 1939 had any idea, not even Hitler, who OTL was contemplating a very long war in the West. And it's a place where Germany's new allies cannot help, either. Moreover, consider that the alliance with Poland and British entanglement gives Hitler (or at least he would believe so) precisely what he most wanted: a free hand to strike in the east. There is no need to depart from the blueprint of Mein Kampf ITTL, whereas OTL they were forced by post-Munich circumstances to improvise.
They might still do just what you describe, but I don't really see the event chain that leads to that decision now that France has been deprived of allies in the east and Britain is busy. It's also difficult to see how they could appease both Poland and the Soviets at the same time, while also clearly conducting intimidatory military exercises whose only plausible target is the Soviets themselves. Of course might be wrong and we'll never know for sure. In my humble opinion what Hitler would do ITTL is reduce focus on the Kriegsmarine and plan a new round of expansion for the Army and Luftwaffe (the latter of which would still be considerably smaller than the absolutely unhinged and physically impossible expansion plan of OTL which was meant to outbuild all the Western Allies combined, and fell apart within literal weeks). This round would come after 12-18 months of armament slowdown and focus on exports to accrue the necessary currency, and would also provide a window to further test German-Polish interoperability and assess respective equipments and doctrines. It would also provide time for military planning for a strike from positions within Poland, which was obviously not a factor of consideration in the past. If this happens and the last rearmament burst happens in the summer of 1940, we might see a strike against the Soviets, ironically, in 1941. Or a coup to prevent it, if the Generals are a lot more pessimistic than OTL.

To be clear, I think France would be the next target. But this would happen only after Germany has digested its new eastern conquests, and maybe even "terminated" its alliance with Poland if you know what I mean. This would give Germany the strategic depth, resource access etc to confront the West on a more even footing. Of course this is all in Hitler's head. If he does go ahead with the strike, Germany will lose the war in the east a lot faster than they did IOTL.
We are obviously speculating but I'd suggest that a war versus France now could gain Germany Alsace-Lorraine and the French iron around Briey. Neuter the French with hard currency reparations plus army limits and coup/ bully Belgium and Netherlands to pro-German governments. Britain will be a future enemy but with the bulk of its attention on the East, France should fall faster and harder than OTL which would leave Britain's position towards Germany as awkward but not dangerous. USA will probably be focussed on a China / Japan first strategy when it comes to bending its neutrality. I don't think Britain will be able to continue the war against Germany by blockade with France surrendered and American imports with most of its fleet absent.

France would be a revanchist power (again) but if Germany is dictating the peace treaty then it will give them time to build for Russia (or Poland and Russia)
 

Deleted member 117308

What I really like about this TL is how unpredictable everything is. I really do not know if the Soviets will be able to hold the Germans alone.
 
They would tbh. This version of Barbarossa would start with absolutely zero chance of strategic surprise. It would run into the teeth of the Stalin line, rather than a half-finished Molotov line, making the colossal encirclements of OTL impossible. There is no stockpile of grain and oil as resultant from OTL Molotov Ribbentrop pact, no huge plunder of Western European trucks, AFVs, and resources, meaning fewer Panzer divisions and even more horse-drawn logistics and infantry on foot. Both sides would lack the experience of early WW2 and the Winter War respectively, but that's substantially more missed German experience than it is Soviet, and again without encirclements you're just headbutting a colossal army back east until they learn how to counterattack and you're doomed. The Red Army IOTL also proved a lot better at learning from its setbacks. German plans at their core IOTL were to destroy the Red Army within a depth of 500km from the border. There was no plan B. When plan A failed, they simply repeated it again and again, never developing a different strategy. ITTL it will fail as well and nothing suggest they would get a plan B this time. Then it's all over but the crying.
 
There is absolutely no chance Germany could do that, either ITTL or OTL. The cost requirements are so enormous that even the combined economies of the Axis powers could never contemplate it.
Not really, the V-2 program cost more than the Manhattan Project.
 
It just occurred to me, what are the chances that FDR runs again if there‘s no war in Europe (yet)? Does the Anglo-Japanese conflict present a big enough justification for an unprecedented third term? If not, who would be the Democratic nominee? Or the Republicans‘, for that matter. Without the German threat against France and Britain, the isolationist elements in both parties might well be stronger than OTL. If not as presidential nominee, then I could see an isolationist at least as a running mate for one or both candidates. Something like Willkie/Taft for the Republicans, for example (which would be especially interesting, since IOTL Willkie died in 1944).

There are lots of interesting directions this could go.
 
It just occurred to me, what are the chances that FDR runs again if there‘s no war in Europe (yet)? Does the Anglo-Japanese conflict present a big enough justification for an unprecedented third term? If not, who would be the Democratic nominee? Or the Republicans‘, for that matter. Without the German threat against France and Britain, the isolationist elements in both parties might well be stronger than OTL. If not as presidential nominee, then I could see an isolationist at least as a running mate for one or both candidates. Something like Willkie/Taft for the Republicans, for example (which would be especially interesting, since IOTL Willkie died in 1944).

There are lots of interesting directions this could go.
I seriously doubt there would be a third term. After 1938 the Democratic Party in Congress had turned conservative and I would see a conservative like Garner being nominated, Without the war in Europe domestic issues would have dominated the election.
Willkie was very much the product of the European War. Remember for most of the 1930s he was nominally a Democrat. Without the war he would not, in my opinion, been a candidate in either party, just another businessman writing campaign checks.
 
I seriously doubt there would be a third term. After 1938 the Democratic Party in Congress had turned conservative and I would see a conservative like Garner being nominated, Without the war in Europe domestic issues would have dominated the election.
Willkie was very much the product of the European War. Remember for most of the 1930s he was nominally a Democrat. Without the war he would not, in my opinion, been a candidate in either party, just another businessman writing campaign checks.
Yes he was a former ally of Roosevelt but opposed him on a single issue and this was serious enough for him to stand in opposition. Iirc it was something to do with a hydroelectric dam or some such?
 
19. Sun, Sand, and Surf
Burning Beneath the Rising Sun: Wrapping Up Southern China

With its northern flank secured Japan was once more able to devote much needed attention to China. The Japanese had faced so many distractions from their campaign in China that it was almost hard to remember that the conflict with Britain began when their efforts to secure southern China went awry. The Battle of Hong Kong and the need to strike out at Britain before it could mobilize meant that planned follow ups to the Canton Operation never materialized. Those were now on the top of the todo list.

Their target list wasn’t all that long: the large island of Hainan, the major port city of Shantou, and Nanning, the primary economic centre of Guangxi Province. The issue was rather that these objectives were meant to have been accomplished by now. Every day that China wasn’t effectively land locked was another day of access to the international arms market. One thing in their favour now was that they had access to Hong Kong’s modern naval facilities as a launch pad.

Chiang’s intelligence offices were not blind to the increased naval activity. However, they had difficulty interpreting what it might mean. A further offensive in the Canton Area? A new landing elsewhere in Southern China? Another strike south against the British? Japan’s decision making had proven so unpredictable that Chiang even felt the need to warn France that Indochina might be Japan’s next target.[1] Chiang had only so many forces to spare, and seemingly every fishing village on the coast was a potential target in need of a garrison.

Eventually the NRA concluded that Japan’s use of Hong Kong indicated that it was intending to strike further west. Further, based on Japan’s previous amphibious operations they concluded that Japan would likely be limited to pursuing two targets at most. The NRA’s initial preparations focused on significant ports east of Canton, but the British attache urged that Hainan was likely Japan’s objective, as it would greatly improve the coverage of its airborne ASW patrols.

China was accordingly completely unprepared when a fairly light force from Formosa took Shantou and Chaozhou by storm on the 16th of July. As the NRA scrambled to reassess its deployments, the two forces from Hong Kong departed.

The smaller of these two forces landed in numerous spots around the island of Hainan. Despite weeks of alerts, the large NRA force on the island was not prepared for a Japanese attack. Rather, the local commander had the force dispersed throughout the interior fighting communists and suppressing the Li.[2] The developed coastal regions were quickly overrun and the bulk of the NRA’s force were defeated in detail. By the 23rd, major combat operations were concluded and the local NRA forces were reduced to a handful of guerilla formations in the island’s mountainous south.


IJA armour coming ashore on Hainan

To the North, the 5th Division had landed on the coast of Qinzhou Bay and by the 25th had managed to capture the city of Qinzhou itself. Their efforts to push further, however, were frustrated by a spoiling attack conducted by mechanized elements of General Xu Tingyao’s 38th Group Army.

These new campaigns represented the start of an even grimmer chapter for Hong Kong, which had already suffered so much hardship. Many of the city’s sons would be yanked from their homes and press ganged into labour battalions, forced at bayonet point to assist in Japan’s campaigns and the economic exploitation of newly subjugated territories. The city’s daughters didn’t escape Doihara’s grasp either. The IJA had already established a number of brothels in the city to provide “comfort women” services. When the IJA moved on, they dragged their playthings along with them. This relentless exploitation of Hong Kong’s human resources, along with a number of deportation schemes and countless executions, would reduce Hong Kong from a happy city of 1.4 million to a mere 300 thousand by war’s end.


Break In And Through: The Siege of Niah

Far to the south, a different story unfolded. On Borneo, the Japanese had exhausted their offensive potential. Their efforts to overrun Niah were defeated by a series of “company boxes,” spaced such that they were able to mutually support each other. Slim’s 5th Brigade was also exhausted, as you’d expect of a force that had been besieged for nearly a month.

Further to the west, Auchinleck was feeling pressure to resolve the matter. From nearby Singapore, Lord Gort was effectively breathing down Auchinleck’s neck. This is not to say that the Auk didn’t grasp the severity of the situation facing the 5th Brigade. Rather, having been burnt multiple times by surprise Japanese counter attacks and rearguard actions, he was quite cautious in his inclinations, and hoped to wait for further reinforcement.


John Vereker, 6th Viscount Gort, was Chief of the Imperial General Staff and, as a proponent of the British Army, was intent that the land campaigns of the Anglo-Japanese War not be reduced to a mere sideshow to the naval war

By mid July, Auchinleck had at last settled on a plan of attack. Between the 15th and 17th, British artillery engaged in sporadic high volume barrages of suspected Japanese positions. When the Japanese ceased replying on the 17th, the decision was made to attack the next day.

Starting at noon, the 5th Division pushed through the battered Japanese positions to link up with its stranded brigade, taking the fight further to the forces on the 5th Brigade’s flanks. The Indian 4th Division followed shortly behind, its mechanized forces acting as an exploitation force, charging through the village of Niah, and rolling over the Imperial Guards that stood between them and the river with their Matildas. They quickly spread along the bank of the river, isolating the two Japanese divisions from reinforcements and resupply. At the same time, further south, the New Zealand Division forded the river and looked to break into the IJA’s rear areas.

They didn’t find much. Far from a large supply line, they only found malnourished officers. The Japanese on Borneo seemed to be a spent resource. This fact was confirmed later that day when a recon flight spotted pillars of black smoke rising from Brunei’s oil wells. The Japanese had come to the island to capture those wells. If they were destroying them rather than defending them, then they believed their situation to be hopeless. The campaign wasn’t over yet, but it may as well have been.

Auchinleck had escaped Lord Gort’s attention, which now turned towards the increasingly dire situation on New Britain.

---

[1] this was entirely unnecessary. Southern Area Army commander Kenji Doihara had promised harsh reprisals against any officer who so much as took a unit within two kilometres of the border with french Guangzhouwan. Given Doihara himself was no stranger to army adventurism, it’s likely Tokyo was riding his ass pretty hard on this point.

[2] drawing on his experience in Manchuria, Doihara quickly recognized the Li as the best candidates for collaborators. The Li themselves were less enthusiastic to betray their communist allies, but as the nationalist forces relentlessly exploited the Li to sustain their guerilla campaign, the Li, represented by Wang Guoxing, saw little recourse but to enter talks with the Japanese.

A/N:
Sorry it took so long to produce such a meagre update. I’m starting a new job, and that’s always going to cause some disruption.
 
So, at this point it's only a matter of time until Japan's oil runs out?

I wonder what the British submarine arm is up to. Any plans to ruin Japan's merchant fleet?
 
So, at this point it's only a matter of time until Japan's oil runs out?
Not while they still have their deal with the Soviets, and they are still doing some business with the Dutch, though once the Japanese are fully evicted from Borneo that's likely to be severed entirely by British cruisers (or, more likely, by the Dutch taking advantage of the Japanese being off their borders).
 
'Why yes, there is oil just sitting on the dockside just waiting for your transports to pick it up... No, your transports... Oh, you don't have any left after the Royal Navy sank them all... Yes, I can see how that would be inconvenient... Have you considered flying?'
- Some Dutch fellow totally holding up his end of the trade deal.


Also, yes, the Japanese did consider flying the fuel out:
 
So now that we’ve seen the capabilities and strategic considerations of both sides, what are everyone’s guesses how long this war lasts, and how exactly it ends? Would Britain on its own be able to impose unconditional surrender on Japan, followed by occupation? Or would they be more likely to accept some conditional peace? In the former case the war probably lasts until 1942 at the very least, probably longer; while in the latter case it could theoretically end at any point.
 

Sargon

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So now that we’ve seen the capabilities and strategic considerations of both sides, what are everyone’s guesses how long this war lasts, and how exactly it ends? Would Britain on its own be able to impose unconditional surrender on Japan, followed by occupation? Or would they be more likely to accept some conditional peace? In the former case the war probably lasts until 1942 at the very least, probably longer; while in the latter case it could theoretically end at any point.

I think the clue's in the title of the story. It's going to be a long grind. Not sure whether it'll end up with an unconditional surrender or not. Unless Tube Alloys makes an appearance, it is indeed going to be a long way to Nagasaki and at the moment seems more likely to be conditional (and we don't know what's going to happen there, is it going to be another atom bomb, or some other event as that particular city seems important enough to be in the title?). Lots of the IJN and IJA still to dispose of, and not every battle will go the UK's way even though Japan is going to be defeated (as the title implies) in this TL.


Sargon
 
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Yes he was a former ally of Roosevelt but opposed him on a single issue and this was serious enough for him to stand in opposition. Iirc it was something to do with a hydroelectric dam or some such?
Willkie was the head of Commonwealth and Southern, one of the country's largest utility holding companies. As such he led opposition to the Tennessee Valley Authority; he argued that the TVA was an improper intrusion of government into a business area, and represented unfair competition. This was a huge controversy.
 
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