Kind of, it was also in response to a Soviet incursion against one of Japan's client states. They underestimated Soviet strength in the area, but some sort of military response was arguably justified.

Ultimately a failure to agree on the border of Mongolia and Manchuoko was always going to lead to a violation somewhere
 
The trouble with the Philippines in this Anglo-Japanese War is that they are inconveniently in the way.

The trouble with the Soviet Far East in any Sino-Japanese war is that they are inconveniently in the way.
I mean look at all those air and sub bases just sticking there in the middle of the Japan threatening all the vital shipping of resources between Manchuria and Korea and the Japanese home islands.

KhalKhin Gol was yet another example of Japan making an opportunistic attack against an opponent they thought they could get an easy win against, the difference being they lost.

Taierzhuang [and the Guangxi offensive of 1939-1940] was yet another example of Japan making an opportunistic attack against an opponent they thought they could get an easy win against, the difference being they lost. The Soviet-Japanese Non-Aggression treaty was signed soon after. Oh wait, that didn't happen. Also, there were complaints in Japan that the victories that did occur against China weren't being accomplished with the cheapness and ease promised by the Army, but the war continued.

It's difficult for me to buy that the explanation for differing Japanese conduct towards the Soviet Union rather than other nearby powers rests on the single factor of getting slapped with particularly harsh tactical feedback in battle. The fact that the Japanese did not go whole hog against the Soviets demonstrates they were weighing multiple factors and thinking strategically, even if in highly skewed way. The fact that they backed down from escalating with the Soviets showed the Japanese could exercise rational restraint up to a point.

If Japan were a creature who was only bounded by battlefield defeat, and Khalkin Gol was the level of defeat needed to get them to back down, well then they wouldn't have taken so long to surrender, because they were dealt many tactical defeats just as bad in the Pacific War before 1942 was out and on land before 1944 was out.
 
Great updates STRD! :) Below my thoughts on possible Dutch policy and politics. As the Netherlands are far from the focus of this TL - and are possibly not even going to be involved in the war directly - I would certainly understand it if you left it to the side but the scenario did spark some AH-inspiration in me.

[3] though Rear Admiral Conrad Helfrich seemed oddly excited by the turn of events.

At this point in time the Dutch naval commander in the DEI was the very capable Vice-Admiral Hendrik Ferwerda. Helfrich was still the director of the Higher Naval War School. Also, while the early successes of the RNN submarines in 1941 gave him the nickname 'ship-a-day Helfrich' he was very much the second in command of the anti-submarine big-gun lobby which took over the Koninklijke Marine during this period. Why I do think Helfrich would be excited about this developements I will adress later.

While the diplomatic matter passed swiftly enough, the incident had been a wake up call to the Dutch public who only now realized how precarious their neutrality was. As letters of concern poured in and demonstrations were held the conservative coalition running the Netherlands began to feel the pinch. No gradual build up or time spent waiting for new kit to be ordered and delivered would be acceptable to the electorate. The Netherland’s empire was in peril and only a surge of troops into the region would pass, efforts to maintain appearances and avoid a knee jerk reaction from Tokyo be damned.

This is consitutionally impossible I'm afraid. Before WWII the Dutch constitution did not allow Army conscripts to be send overseas. If Colijn and his government want to strenghten the defences of the DEI they have some options, all with their own drawbacks and advantages.

Ships
The Koninklijke Marine (RNN) was divided into two parts: the European Squadron and the East Indies Squadron. The former being by far the smallest of the two and consisted mostly of coastal submarines and other small units. It did also contain a reserve force that could be send to Asia if needed. That means that the East Indies Squadron could be reinforced by as many as five submarines on relatively short notice. That's pretty much it though.

What these events could very well impact though - and make Helfrich and his boss Furstner really happy - is the acquisition of battlecruisers. OTL the Dutch government made the decision to acquire three battlecruisers/'cruiser-killers' only on the eve of the German invasions - and was planning to order them from German shipwarves to boot! ATL this process could very well be advanced in time. It would take quite some time for those ships to be delivered though and their possible effectiveness is still being debated. Regardless, the decision to go for these ships will mean the final victory of the big-gun lobby.

WIth regards to the building of other ships I think the Dutch naval shipwarves were working already at pretty much full capacity. That is, they worked as hard as viable (no round the clock productivity though) and were limited by the global hunger for military equipement, which made a lot of resources scarce.

Land Forces
As said above it was impossible to send army conscripts overseas. For colonial service there was the Koninklijk Nederlands-Indisch Leger (Royal Netherlands-Indies Army or KNIL) which also garrisoned the colony of Suriname. The KNIL consisted of professional soldiers and officers. The rank-and-file consisted mostly of natives, the non-coms mostly of Indo's (mixed race) and the officers were European. Colijn's options are the following:

  1. Change the constitution to allow army conscripts to be send overseas. This is pretty hard, even if the greater populations is on board (of which I have some doubts). It needs a 2/3 majority in both chambers of parliament, after which an election has to take place and then the next parliament has to pass it with 2/3 majority. This is time consuming and also very hard. I doubt it will be very popular, or at least not popular enough. Being a conscript was shitty enough without being able to get leave back home for two years.
  2. Expand the KNIL. In terms of domestic politics this is pretty viable as this will mean that the Dutch boys can stay at home. This is not an instant reinforcement though and there are some doubts on the possibility of recruitment. The KNIL was pretty much a seperate caste in colonial society with sons usually following their fathers foodsteps in taking coin from the Kompanie. Ambonese and Menadonese were considered the most loyal colonial subjects but were also not very numerous, Expanding the KNIL could mean taking in a lot more Javanese, which were politically more suspect.
  3. Send in the Marines! As conscripts in the Navy were naturally not barred from service overseas Colijn could use this as a constitutional loophole. The Korps Mariniers was one of the oldest Marine Corps in the world but at this point not very large. By enlarging it significantly the Dutch government could use them to reinforce the Indies. While this would be constitutionally sound, there will be a pretty big uproar about it. The conscripts will - quite rightly - see it as being tricked into something they'd never have imagined.
  4. Indoneziation: Around the start of the POD the Dutch government refused a request by the Volksraad (composed of representatives from the DEI) to reconsider the position of the colony in the Kingdom. Nationalists were very interested in defending the Indies but only if it would also mean political rights. Mobilization in exchange for self-determination. This is impossible for Colijn - ever the imperialist - to accept. Colijn is on his last legs though. His last two governments failed (the very last one within a day) and he seemed to be somewhat done with politics. This situation will however trigger him to keep marching on though. My road to this option would be Colijn trying to force options 1 or 3 (or a combination), failing after an election strengthens the socialists who will be much more inclined to give in to Indonesian nationalism.
 
My understanding is that the Dutch had better submarines than the British during this time period. Is that true?
They were the first navy to experiment with snorkels, which was a revolutionary piece of technology for diesel submarines. Also did a lot in the Pacific Theater against the IJN.
 
My understanding is that the Dutch had better submarines than the British during this time period. Is that true?

Equipement-wise I'm not sure. Dutch submarines were pretty damn good but the RN subs were nothing to sneeze at either. Dutch submarine doctrine was way ahead though, as for a decade and a half the RNN considered it's submarine force as the centerpiece of the fleet, instead of being an auxiliary force. Instead of surface units it would be wolfpacks of submarines engaging a hypothetical Japanese invasion force. So where the RN was using it's submarines as not much more than mobile minefields, Dutch submarines were training to work in groups and actively hunt the enemy in conjunction with scouting air units. Total succes was far from guarenteed but given the geography of the archipelago a Japanese invasion fleet would certainly be damaged.

So why are there no books describing the crushing victory of the Dutch submarine fleet against the Imperial Japanese Navy? Because a group of Dutch naval officers (chiefly among them Helfrich and - especially - Furstner) started pushing for the acquisition of more (light) cruisers. This started out as a way to defeat the KNIL (the RNNs worst enemy next to the IJN) when the defense budget got cramped but soon the big gun lobby started believing their own propaganda and on the eve of the Second World War (with Helfrich replacing Ferwerda as commander in chief of the East Indies Squadron) the submarine was removed as centerpiece and subordinated to the surface units. Resulting in the crushing defeat of OTL.

Now the results of the Dutch submarine force were still impressive, especially compared to other Allied submarine forces. This is a testament to the quality of the Dutch subs and their crews but there is more to it. During the Interbellum the whole force had been drilled in the notion that they were the first and only line of defense for Java, which was basically just as much 'home' as Den Helder was. It was also clear that if the wolfpack would find the Japanese fleet, the attack had to be pressed at all costs, as there would probably not be a second chance. Dutch submariners barely practiced long distance shots because they were supposed to ambush the enemy convoy at (very) short distances so as to assure a hit. It was this esprit de corps which made the Dutch submarines so succesfull at the start of the war, it was also the reason the many casualties all but destroyed the force in just a few months.

They were the first navy to experiment with snorkels, which was a revolutionary piece of technology for diesel submarines. Also did a lot in the Pacific Theater against the IJN.

Actually, while the snorkel was indeed a Dutch invention the RNN barely made use of it OTL during the opening months of the war as it caused a pretty long and distinguishable wake when used at high speeds.
 
Ran into this proposal for a naval version of the spitfire based on the Spitfire F Mk IV (Griffon engine, entered service as the Mk XII).
The big change is obviously the folding reverse-gull wing which has the benefit of widening the notoriously narrow landing gear.
Expected development was late 1939/early 1940, which puts it neatly in the third year of this timeline's conflict with Japan. To my knowledge this particular design was shelved because Spitfire production was needed in Europe, in this timeline it might get a chance at production if the Germans can behave themselves that long.
NavalSpitfire_mkIV.jpg

If it does start flying in the Pacific it should beat the wings off anything the Japanese can put in the air and would be one hell of a step up for carrier fighter performance, the Americans would still be relying on the Wildcat when this monster took to the air.
 
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10. And the rest of the world hadn’t stopped to watch [Part 3: China]
Chiang’s China: It’s Good to have Allies

China’s position had improved little since the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War. The loss of Canton had eliminated one of the main entreports for western military aid. The South China Sea becoming an active war zone had also reduced the flow through Indochina to Kunming. While the British had promised arms to China so far there had only been a trickle along the Burma Road.

There had however been one major benefit to the start of the Anglo-Japanese War, the security of knowing that China at long last had allies fighting the Japanese. The many foreign language newspapers published within the Shanghai International Settlement covered the Anglo-Japanese War in some detail, and the local Chinese language news papers, such as Shen Bao, made this news more widely known. Major events, like the Battle Off Borneo,[1] were also propagandized by the KMT government. The idea that another powerful state was beating Japan elsewhere gave even the most pessimistic Chinese hope that the war could be won, regardless of the KMT’s wanton corruption and inefficiency.

The alliance with Britain also bolstered the stature of Chiang Kai Shek. While some of the warlords and the Communists may have achieved some local successes that raised their stature vis-a-vis the central government, they weren’t internationally recognized entities. Only Chiang’s government was, and that gave him a monopoly on official communications with China’s only allies.

e9878de685b6e69c83e8ab87_e894a3e4bb8be79fb3e88887e6af9be6bea4e69db1.jpg

Chiang Kai Shek and one of his most precarious "allies", the charismatic leader of China's Communists, Mao Zedong.


Trouble In Chinatown: Stalemate

During the battle for Wuhan elements of the 11th Army had attempted to take Nanchang on the march but had been repelled by Chinese defenders along the Xiushui River. Almost immediately after the battle the 6th and 16th Divisions had been pulled from the line to provide their expertise to the Eastern and Western pincers respectively. This left the bloodied soldiers of the 11th in no position to take any offensive actions following their victory at Wuhan.

This immediate lull in Japanese activity gave the Chinese some much needed breathing room. For the city of Changsha, which was struggling to function after having received the bulk of Wuhan’s refugees, this lull had allowed some sort of normalcy to be regained. Following its failed efforts to relieve Hong Kong, a number of additional NRA units were shifted north to reinforce the cities of Nanchang and Changsha.

Over the winter Chiang Kai Shek grew restless. His armies were too vast for mere defensive operations, and with the Japanese distracted further south it seemed opportune to conduct a grand counter attack. A grand offensive was drawn up for March. Half a million men sweep north in two huge pincers encircling the Japanese concentration at Wuhan. The 9th Military Region’s preparations began right away. And the Japanese knew just as soon.

Despite being governor of Hong Kong, Kenji Doihara still had time for his narcotics empire. In addition to reducing the combat effectiveness and work ethic of the Chinese citizenry, Doihara’s massive network of dealers, smugglers, brothels, and crooked KMT officials also gave him an ideal intelligence network. Nothing major could happen in China, on either side of the frontlines, without Doihara having had forewarning. The massive infusion of NRA forces into the region was noted, but hadn’t been unexpected.

Officers in brothels tend to have loose lips, and there were quite a few brothels in and around Changsha following the evacuation of Wuhan. It was only a matter of time before Diohara caught wind of Chiang’s planned Spring Offensive. Normally he was one to share information[2] when it suited his career advancement, but his career would mean little if the Central China Expeditionary Army was wiped out, a loss from which Japan would be unable to recover.

The news quickly went up the grapevine to Tokyo, then back down to Lieutenant General Otozō Yamada of the Central China Expeditionary Army. The news was not entirely surprising, forward observers had long since noticed the Chinese buildup, however this had been assumed to be defensive in nature.[3]

Now the exact records of the IJA’s discussions on what to do have been lost, as unfortunately much of the Imperial Japanese Army General Staff Office’s documents have been. However, Liaison Conference notes indicate that the IJA had settled on an offensive-based solution by the 20th of January.

The actual offensive began on the 12th of February with a belaboured Japanese crossing of the Xiushui River. The crossing was hard for the same reason why it was successful. By this point the spring thaw was already underway in central China and the river’s banks were greatly swollen with melt water. The Chinese had assumed this would be enough to discourage the Japanese and had only a minimal picket defence along the river while the bulk of their forces drilled further back.

IJA_Type_89_medium_tank_Ko_earlymodel.jpg

The pontoon bridge across the river proved too unstable for Japan's medium tanks to cross, forcing them to sit out the battle.

The initial Chinese response, launched on the assumption that this was merely a raiding force, was too small to dislodge the initial toehold. Which meant the Japanese bridgehead was able to consolidate and dig in.

Having been alerted of the situation, 9th Military Region head, Xue Yue took over direction of the battle and funnelled in additional reinforcements to besiege the Japanese bridgehead. A furious artillery duel also erupted along the length of the river.

By the 18th the Xue Yue had arrayed the entire 19th Group Army[4] against the Bridgehead, and was leveraging this numerical advantage. On the 3rd of March the last Japanese holdout on the south bank of the river was finally overrun by NRA forces, with sporadic artillery exchanges continuing for the rest of the month.

China at last had a real victory under its belt.


Historiography Time: The “Early Thaw” debate

The importance of this victory has been called into question.

Supposedly based on POW testimony from the time of the battle, the KMT government has widely propagated the idea that they had halted and turned back a major operation intended to seize Nanchang. Supposedly this was “Operation Early Thaw”

However, post war testimony of high ranking IJA officers in British custody indicates that the operation was only ever intended to be a spoiling maneuver. Which succeeded in forcing the Chinese to abandon their plans for a spring offensive.

Proponents of Operation Early Thaw tend to dismiss the post war testimonial as retroactive justification for an earlier defeat. Proponents of the spoiling attack theory point out that the KMT had every reason to elevate the victory and explain away the disproportionate casualties suffered by the NRA during the campaign.

In either case the documents to prove one way or another no longer exist.

Otozo_Yamada_01.jpg

The testimony of Otozō Yamada, commander of the Central China Expeditionary Army at the time of the battle, is central to the spoiling attack theory.


---

[1] one poster “depicting” the Battle Off Borneo notably featured Japanese battleships erupting into flames as though it was a repeat of Jutland.

[2] and his sister!

[3] which it initially had been.

[4] and a “group army” in western parlance would be just an army, not an army group. They are facing off against an IJA army, which I’ll remind you is a corps-level formation. God these non standard terminologies make me want to pull my hair out. HERE’S HOPING I CAN BUTTERFLY AWAY THE SOVIET’S STUPID BRIGADE SIZED DIVISION, DIVISION SIZED CORPS, CORPS SIZED ARMY, AND ARMY SIZED FRONT BEFORE I HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT BULLSH*T!

And now to touch up the Dutch section...
 
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I think the updated section really helps the storyline and sets up future problems for the Dutch and the Japanese. Unfortunately the stupidity of older politicians and military fools will cost the blood and lives of young men of both countries.
 
I think the updated section really helps the storyline and sets up future problems for the Dutch and the Japanese. Unfortunately the stupidity of older politicians and military fools will cost the blood and lives of young men of both countries.
Thanks! Yeah I thought the original version was a little skimpy but didn't know what else to add. Constitutional sidestepping makes the section much more worthwhile imo.

Awesome timeline, looking forward to future updates.
Aw thank you!

Well then, that's not ominous at all.
I was wondering when someone would catch one of the easter eggs I've sprinkled in.
 
Thanks! Yeah I thought the original version was a little skimpy but didn't know what else to add. Constitutional sidestepping makes the section much more worthwhile imo.


Aw thank you!


I was wondering when someone would catch one of the easter eggs I've sprinkled in.
Firstly, just caught up an excellent and enthralling T/L.

Secondly, from ITTL historical point of view ALL the IJA documentation has disappeared. Certainly ominous, but I dont think the UK could have brought Tube Alloys to fruition without the Manhattan Project. My speculation is that either the British develop Thermobaric weapons earlier then OTL, or it is evidence of a hard core IJA scorched earth policy, down to every piece of paper!
 
Secondly, from ITTL historical point of view ALL the IJA documentation has disappeared.
Well, not all IJA documentation, but there is a HUGE hole in it.

Certainly ominous, but I dont think the UK could have brought Tube Alloys to fruition without the Manhattan Project. My speculation is that either the British develop Thermobaric weapons earlier then OTL, or it is evidence of a hard core IJA scorched earth policy, down to every piece of paper!
Or maybe the Imperial Japanese Army General Staff Office burnt down by accident, or maybe it ate a 16" shell from the IJN, or maybe they were carted off to somewhere inaccessible by another party. Plenty of explanations, some more concerning than others.
 
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