Italy's greatest offer

Supposing Italy stays neutral for 1940, what is the most territory and/or concessions that the Axis or Allies will offer her to join the war? Tunisia? Corsica? Both and more?
 

SsgtC

Banned
More likely the UK, and once she joins the war, the US, offer below market pricing on things like coal and pig iron. Not to get Italy into the war, but to keep her as a friendly-ish nuetral.
 
Italy had designs on Dalmatia? that might be more acceptable to Allied side for them to run sideline campaign against Yugoslavia than ceding over French territories?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Supposing Italy stays neutral for 1940, what is the most territory and/or concessions that the Axis or Allies will offer her to join the war? Tunisia? Corsica? Both and more?

They get to keep what they have colonially. And they get the UK/USA to agree not to interfere post war. Might also get an acknowledgement that Libya is the 5th Coast. Maybe a few border adjustments with Austria.
 
Depend by the period

- pre fall of France, when it's strongly expected that sooner or later Italy will join Germany, a stick and carrot approach will be attempted (but with the underlining idea that in the end the attempt will fail): so good rate for Suez, below market price for coal and other item, massive aquisition of italian weapons and other products, cultural rights in Malta (and Tunisia) and the ratification of the French-italian agreement of 35, probably the demilitarization of the french controlled side of the Tunisian/Algerian-libyan border and the use of the port of Djibuti by Regia Marina.
- At the verge of the fall of France: Churchill and the rest of the British goverment were desperate enough to consider giving up Malta and some other african colony in exchange of a succesfull mediation by Mussolini to achieve a peace treaty.
- post-fall of France: add a willingness by the British to make pression towards Greece for some reasonable concession towards the italian (demilitarization of the border with Albania and Corfù, basin rights in Crete), good rate for using the italian merchant marine and maybe selling Somaliland and colonial border adjustment post-war at France expense...and look at the other way regarding any sheningans in Jugoslavia
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Depend by the period

- pre fall of France, when it's strongly expected that sooner or later Italy will join Germany, a stick and carrot approach will be attempted (but with the underlining idea that in the end the attempt will fail): so good rate for Suez, below market price for coal and other item, massive aquisition of italian weapons and other products, cultural rights in Malta (and Tunisia) and the ratification of the French-italian agreement of 35, probably the demilitarization of the french controlled side of the Tunisian/Algerian-libyan border and the use of the port of Djibuti by Regia Marina.

It would make an interesting ATL to see Mussolini playing a good diplomatic game for long-term gain. I don't see Mussolini having the skills needed. Is there a prominent Italian diplomat that can easily fill the role?

- At the verge of the fall of France: Churchill and the rest of the British goverment were desperate enough to consider giving up Malta and some other african colony in exchange of a succesfull mediation by Mussolini to achieve a peace treaty.

I love this idea. The Italians negotiate a deal that is really not too far from OTL deal Hitler imposed anyway. The main difference is the Italians get Malta, Savoy, and Nice along with a colony to be named later. Are you thinking Tunisia or some British Colony?

You can then take this idea and do something like Calbears ATL or any other version of 'German goes East' that you like.

- post-fall of France: add a willingness by the British to make pression towards Greece for some reasonable concession towards the italian (demilitarization of the border with Albania and Corfù, basin rights in Crete), good rate for using the italian merchant marine and maybe selling Somaliland and colonial border adjustment post-war at France expense...and look at the other way regarding any sheningans in Jugoslavia

On this deal, we still have issues of fear of the French Navy falling into German hands. Do you think the UK might support the Italians 'purchasing' some French battleships?
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
I love this idea. The Italians negotiate a deal that is really not too far from OTL deal Hitler imposed anyway. The main difference is the Italians get Malta, Savoy, and Nice along with a colony to be named later. Are you thinking Tunisia or some British Colony?
So, the British Gov't is offering Italy pieces of Metropolitan France?
 
It would make an interesting ATL to see Mussolini playing a good diplomatic game for long-term gain. I don't see Mussolini having the skills needed. Is there a prominent Italian diplomat that can easily fill the role?

Bastianini, the then italian ambassador in the UK and his predecessor Dino Grandi were well know italian diplomat and were opposed at the italian Dow and will have supported such agreement and at least have more direct experience in foreign relations than Benny. The problem is Mussolini, with the fall of France he was really convinced that the war was basically over, you need him incapacitated (even temporary), getting prudent for still a little while or the King coming strong against the Dow.

I love this idea. The Italians negotiate a deal that is really not too far from OTL deal Hitler imposed anyway. The main difference is the Italians get Malta, Savoy, and Nice along with a colony to be named later. Are you thinking Tunisia or some British Colony?
You can then take this idea and do something like Calbears ATL or any other version of 'German goes East' that you like.

Nice and Savoy (or Corsica) IMVHO are a little too much, Adolf is still trying to bring Vichy onboard and make her cede national territory will greatly erode Petain legitimancy...Tunisia is more probable (but still need tough negotiation and it's hardly a given). Somaliland had the right combination of being showy and at the same time useless enough to be seriously considered; while Malta on the general military wisdom of the time, was considered already lost if the italian enter the conflict so giving her away was the lesser evil; more probable are enlargement of Libya at the expense of Tunisia, Chad,Algeria and Egypt maybe Cassala and other border adjustment in east africa.

The German advantage in having Italy neutral aka not wasting troops and material in Africa and Greece (Jugoslavia will probably be invaded in any case due to the internal political instability and the pro-british coup) while not war winning can worse a lot the Soviet situation (very important thing for the war aftermath) and even cause the fall of Moscow or a victory at Stalingrad. Naturallly much depend if Stalin in this scenario again convince himself that Adolf will not attack him for now.

On this deal, we still have issues of fear of the French Navy falling into German hands. Do you think the UK might support the Italians 'purchasing' some French battleships?

Probably, even if Regia Marina will be more interested in Cruiser, Destroyers and other support vessel; in any case there is the possibility that withtout Regia Marina in the picture, the British will be less scaried by a possible invasion and will leave the French Fleet alone, making De Gaulle job in recruiting for the Free French easier (and maybe avoiding Mers-el Kebir and Dakar)
 
I presume they would push to get the Aouzou Strip and the French simply push through that agreement they never ratified. Anyways, if Italy stays neutral then what position would they be in afterwards to negotiate anything? They are going to be dealing with Vichy France, and they were rather invested in keeping the areas the Italians wanted.
 
The problem is Mussolini, with the fall of France he was really convinced that the war was basically over, you need him incapacitated (even temporary), getting prudent for still a little while or the King coming strong against the Dow.

I think there's a good TL taking Il Duce's untimely death in the spring of 1940 as a POD just waiting to be written.
 
It would make an interesting ATL to see Mussolini playing a good diplomatic game for long-term gain. I don't see Mussolini having the skills needed. Is there a prominent Italian diplomat that can easily fill the role?

OTL Ciano said of his father in law (can't find the exact quote) that he was mad because he wanted to obtain everything through war, even when negotiation was viable.

So, M has to go, be neutralised or delegate to someone else on this matter.

I love this idea. The Italians negotiate a deal that is really not too far from OTL deal Hitler imposed anyway. The main difference is the Italians get Malta, Savoy, and Nice along with a colony to be named later. Are you thinking Tunisia or some British Colony?

We can play all we want with colonies, but cession of parts of Metropolitan France looks ASB, for it would create long-standing revanchism. Cf. Alsace-Lorraine.
Even OTL Italy had to cede just two border towns (Briga and Tenda).

On this deal, we still have issues of fear of the French Navy falling into German hands. Do you think the UK might support the Italians 'purchasing' some French battleships?

As long as it's transferred where it cannot be used, e.g. Djibouti if it's also part of this negotiation. However I still see it a hard sell to the French.
 
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