Let us say that the events of 628 and the Byzantine-Persian war go as planned. The only difference is that Islam does not exist. Without the pressures of Muslim encroachment, the stresses they placed on Heraclius, and so on, what would happen to Byzantine Italy?
The Lombards are still around and so is the pope. What would happen there if Heraclius has his way with the Monothelites, which according to some people I've heard from before (namely BG) was actually pretty successful in mending the Monphysite-Melkite gap? How would it do with Catholicism? And how would this impact the Pope and the Lombards, especially with Italy in a more stable position without distractions from the Arabs?