@ lukedalton: by Trent you mean the Italian speaking part with the German speaking South Tirol staying Austrian?
Well this mean that the situation for A-H is more military desperate but in the end there will not much difference as the rest of the great power (Prussia included) will not permit to weaken too much the Hasburg Empire maybe Italy will get Trent ITTL unlike OTL.
What will change much will be the perception that Italy had of herself, as the first war as an unified nation it will be a true success unlike the idea that we are been riding the Prussian success and all the aquired land (plus the iron crow of Italy) will be given directely to Italy and not given to Nappy III so to be turned over to the italians. Seem little things but it can gave a good boost to the italian national identity in a period of adjustment, secondary with more military success Italy can be taken more seriously as a military ally by both France or Germany
Well this mean that the situation for A-H is more military desperate but in the end there will not much difference as the rest of the great power (Prussia included) will not permit to weaken too much the Hasburg Empire maybe Italy will get Trent ITTL unlike OTL.
What will change much will be the perception that Italy had of herself, as the first war as an unified nation it will be a true success unlike the idea that we are been riding the Prussian success and all the aquired land (plus the iron crow of Italy) will be given directely to Italy and not given to Nappy III so to be turned over to the italians. Seem little things but it can gave a good boost to the italian national identity in a period of adjustment, secondary with more military success Italy can be taken more seriously as a military ally by both France or Germany
Lissa came late in the war - about a week later the last land battle was fought - no time for an invasion.
The Italian Prusisian alliance also defined Lombardo-Venetia as "italian" war goal - so Trentino seems to be unlikely (I assume Prussia would have no interest in further weaken Austria - Bismark imposed light conditions with the aim of Making Austria a future ally - accoring to the Italian-Prussian treaty Prussia could claim land that "equals" Lombardo Venetia from Austria.
Not just Trento. A decisive Italian victory at Lissa (which btw the Austrians did not gain OTL) would leave the Adriatic open to Italian operations. Maybe a landing in Dalmatia, which was the suggestion of the Prussian general staff, or alternatively the Austrian army in Italy could be taken in a pincer by a landing at Trieste.
However I do agree the major positive outcome for Italy would be a better self-esteem, and a better great power status in Europe.
But the menace can be enough to put a lot of scare on Vienna achievieng the same result in term of diverting troops and resources.
The italian plan and goal regarding Trentino was to liberate the more possible and go for negotiation with a fait accomplì, and frankly it was the only part of the general plan who worked, basically the only thing who saved the austrian troops in Trent was the armistice as they were ready to retreat on more defensible line just south of Bozen/Bolzano. With a victory on Lissa, who btw don't have immediate repercussion on land but greatly ostacolate future operation, Rome can be self-assured enough to demand something more, even becouse with a proper border is not that A-H lose that much.
Other repercussion is that, depending of the degree of the victory, the Adriatic is now under italian control and this can mean two things:
- A-H Navy get a lot more found in an attempt to match the italian one and regain the control of the sealane and keep the coast safe (expecially Trieste)
- Vienna give up a proper navy, concentrate her effort on the Danube lane as a commercial route and condemning Trieste at a slowing death.
Hmm, I never knew that the war was such a close thing.
In my opinion, either Italy gets enough of what it wants to avoid future war or it feels emboldened to try for more. I would expect Austria's actions to largely be in response to Italy's.
For Austria, the loss of Trento and Bolzano is relatively minor and probably a great asset to them in the long term. They still hold both sides of Brenner pass, very few German-speaking citizens are left outside the borders and Italy might see less reason to enter WWI at all.
I agree that Trieste is out of the question, though if Italy had been more successful I imagine there might be a stronger degree of confidence resolve to recover those territories. While I cannot say whether this would have stopped the triple alliance from happening, it is not hard to imagine that both sides would be more likely to plan for a war with one another
Lissa is likely not where these problems would have been solved.Just the campaign in Trentino the war effort on Veneto was a very different thing. The battle of Lissa if succesfull for the italians don't have meaned an immediated collapse of the Austrian army in the zone, but the supply of that forces will be greatly obstacolated, there were the menace of invasion on other part so that made the overall military situation much worse.
Bozen is very doubtfoul that it will be given as is ethnically German but Trentino can be ceded without loss much.
Trieste is very very very unlikely even because is a too much slap on the face for the Empire.
Regarding possible future alliance, well much depend on how the roman question develop now (was a big wrench on Italo-French relationship) and if Crispi ever come on power as he was a rabid fracophobe.
An alliance with France will be surely supported by the King and the piedmontese nobility and will averted the economic warfare who wrecked the italian economy in the last part of the 19th century, not counting that can mean an italian Tunisia (with added butterfly of economic repercussion).
Lissa is likely not where these problems would have been solved.
How might Italy manage to convince France to concede Tunisia? That alone would have done wonders to mend relations between the countries.