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It's a stretch, I agree. On the other hand, it was the largest Italian state, with -- in theory -- the largest army and the most resources. And OTL the Neapolitan leadership was so breathtakingly stupid that it would be really hard not to improve on it.

Step one is probably to get rid of the utterly hopeless King Ferdinand. Say he chokes on a calzone in 1830. The crown would go to his younger brother Carlo, Prince of Capua (b.1811). Next in line would be Leopoldo, Count of Siracusa (b.1813). I don't know much about either of these guys, but it's hard to imagine them being as bad as Ferdinand.

(We could go all the way back to 1815 and leave Murat in power, but I think that's kind of a stretch -- even before the Hundred Days, the Allies had lost faith in Murat, and I think his days were numbered even if he hadn't foolishly jumped for Napoleon. So we're probably stuck with the Neapolitan Bourbons, lame though they are.)

Now, even if we get some competent leadership, the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies has some big problems hardwired in. The Sicilians hate hate hate being ruled from Naples. The peasantry is badly degraded, and there's virtually no middle class, but there's just enough of an urban proletariat to make liberal ideas really dangerous.

Austria, France and England all think they have strategic interests in the Kingdom -- and Brittania is at her least liberal when contemplating threats to that long trans-Mediterranean corridor. All would rather see a weak and stupid regime than an energetic and competent one. And Austria, at least, is willing to invade outright with very little pretext if necessary to support R/e/a/c/t/i/o/n legitimacy.

Still... surely the humiliating collapse of OTL was avoidable. Again, one could hardly do worse.

"Italy unified from Naples" is, I'll freely agree, a long longshot. A stronger Naples is more likely to delay unification! On the other hand, it seems almost certain to happen sometime in the late 19th century -- and a less backward Mezzogiorno would have serious knock-on effects on Italian history.

Thoughts?


Doug M.
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