Italy takes Libya in 1896, Ethiopia retains Massawa

Historically the British in 1884 agreed to cede the Eritrean Highlands and coast around Massawa to Ethiopia in exchange for Ethiopia assisting the British in evacuating garrisons in Sudan. Historically the British instead just encouraged the Italians to take Massawa in order to be a balance to the French in Djibouti - eventually prompting the Italo-Abyssinian War.

What if the British kept their promise, Italian Eritrea remained Assab-centric, and in 1896 the Italians took Libya from the Ottomans instead of going to war with Ethiopia?

Italy likely takes Libya in the same way France took Tunisia - it is nominally Ottoman but Italy has taken control of it administratively. The Ottomans are unable to do anything as they are at war with Greece at this time.
 
If the British had kept their promise, then the Ethiopians would've been able to annex Eritrea and gain access to the Red Sea which would allow for Emperor Yohannes IV or Menelik II to modernize faster with added revenues.
 
If the Ottomans are already preoccupied, a situation where Italy takes over Libya in the same way France took Tunisia and Britain took Egypt (nominally Ottoman but functionally Italian) doesn't seem that unreasonable.
 

raharris1973

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How could this affect other events?

Well, is the OP proposing there is no Italian Eritrea or Somaliland at all? Because if so, then there is likely never any Italo-Abyssinian War in the 19th or 20th centuries.

I'm assuming the Dodecanese remain in Ottoman hands.

The de facto loss of Libya still looks embarrassing to the Ottoman Empire on the map. Maybe Sultan Abdulhamid would be shown the door earlier?

Or maybe predator/scavenger attention focuses more on the Ottoman Empire after the Italian success. - Perhaps Britain and other European powers become more amenable to an anti-Ottoman intervention with the massacres of Armenians as the ostensible excuse.

In OTL, Britain's Salisbury was pushing that solution around 1896, with the Italians sort of agreeing, but the Russians, Austro-Hungarians, Germans and French all being unenthusiastic about dismantling the OE.
 
Well, is the OP proposing there is no Italian Eritrea or Somaliland at all? Because if so, then there is likely never any Italo-Abyssinian War in the 19th or 20th centuries.

I'm assuming the Dodecanese remain in Ottoman hands.

The de facto loss of Libya still looks embarrassing to the Ottoman Empire on the map. Maybe Sultan Abdulhamid would be shown the door earlier?

Or maybe predator/scavenger attention focuses more on the Ottoman Empire after the Italian success. - Perhaps Britain and other European powers become more amenable to an anti-Ottoman intervention with the massacres of Armenians as the ostensible excuse.

In OTL, Britain's Salisbury was pushing that solution around 1896, with the Italians sort of agreeing, but the Russians, Austro-Hungarians, Germans and French all being unenthusiastic about dismantling the OE.
I think he's proposing no Italian Eritrea but I believe the Italians manage to colonize the bulk of Somalia so perhaps there's an Italo-Ethiopian War in the southeastern Somali regions.

Probably.

Who would replace him?

What would this look like and what would be the aftermath of a potential intervention? A rump Ottoman state in Anatolia?

Would there be any attempt at blocking this by any other powers?
 
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