What if Italy had gone the route of Franco's Spain and, no matter how friendly the Germans got, remained utterly neutral during WWII?
Two primary things I can immediately think of:
1) Italy probably would not have invaded Greece without the possibility of German backup, which means Barbarossa does not get delayed; and
2) If Italy does invade Greece, Germany is not obligated to help Mussolini, so Greece either becomes a) a long, protracted battle that ends Italy's involvement in WWII in any capacity, or b) a long, protracted battle that only strengthens Mussolini's resolve and convinces him to launch an attack against Istanbul
If Italy does invade Greece, I see it eventually throwing Italy into the arms of the Germans. If Italy contents itself with Albania, Tunisia, and Libya, I can see a German invasion at some point, especially if Italy is suspected of colluding with the Allies. But if Italy remains neutral throughout, it means the second front through Italy is barred and the Allies have to go through somewhere else, possibly Yugoslavia, at great risk of violating Italy's exclusive maritime borders between Albania and the Italian peninsula.
Any thoughts on this?
I have a small timeline brewing in my head where Italy not only survives WWII, but manages to hang on to her gains, at least as far as Thrace. I'm thinking the only way for this to happen is for Italy to become aware of what's an Allied victory would look like, and then throwing her lot in with the Allies and suddenly we have Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, and Mussolini at Yalta.
Best case scenario, I would like for Italy to have at least a presence in Anatolia (with or without Istanbul), but it doesn't necessarily have to happen, especially as the further from Italy Mussolini sends his troops, obviously, the harder it is for supply to maintain itself and the more ASB-ish the whole thing becomes.
The attached map shows my convoluted attempt at fleshing this out. The year is 1940, Barbarossa is progressing smoothly (all things considered...it is Russia), and Operation Alexander is progressing slowly but surely into Anatolia.
Mussolini hasn't yet thrown his lot in with the Allies or the Axis (would the Axis even have been signed with this POD considering the Pact of Steel was never signed?) but is still gobbling up what he considers rightfully Rome's.
The colors are according to the Brown Shirts and the Black Shirts. Too many WWII maps have Germany in grey.