Italy stays neutral
- Thread starter Johnrankins
- Start date
Yeah attack a neutral nation, except they have to get the Italians and Greeks to agree to let them through and they will refuse. Neither wants an unstable Yugoslavia or the Germans there.
Made possible by heavy American supplies and equipment, plus a lot of luck. The material effects, however, were rather small.
Norway, uh where are they going to get hordes of Landing Craft the U.S. supplied? Where is the Air Cover going to come from? The British Carriers don't have comparable fighters to compete with Luftwaffe fighters. Greece won't let them in unless Italy invades them. Without active U.S. involvement, Britain can not fight past 1942 as their economy starts grinding down.
How does the U.S. get in? Hitler may very likely say screw you Japan, then again Italy is neutral so they are likely to buy oil for Japan and deliver it on their ships thus negating the need for Japan to go attack America.
Well, unlike Switzerland, Italy didn't have a policy of turning back Jewish refugees at the border. In OTL, Italy did not send Jews or any other people to the camps from Italy or any of the areas they occupied.
That changed when after his ouster, the Germans set up Mussolini as a puppet ruler in northern Italy. In those areas, nominally under Mussolini's control, Jews were sent to the camps. In the rest of Italy and Italian controlled areas the Jews were safe from being deliberately exterminated.
I'm afraid you are making lots of groundless assumptions.
First one, you are assuming the USA stay neutral (in a previous message, "no war with the USA"; in this one, "without active US involvement"). Who said that? The POD is "Italy stays neutral", not "the USA stay neutral". There is no reason at all why the USA shouldn't be involved in the war, just because Italy isn't. "Germany first" was the policy, not "Italy first".
Then, you are assuming the material effects of British strategic bombing were rather small. The Germans managed, with enormous amounts of effort, money and manpower, to keep production running and even improve it in some, not all, areas. That doesn't equate with the effects of the bombings being small. It's a common misconception.
Then, you are assuming that when I wrote "landings" in Norway, I was thinking along the lines of a Norwegian Overlord. Instead, I was thinking along the lines of a St. Nazaire, or Vaagso (Norway) raid, maybe something a little larger. Things the British did pull off in OTL. They were only temporary raids, of course; but they are enough to force the Germans to keep those long, long coastlines manned, distracting forces from the main front in the East. And then again, this only goes on until December 1941; at that point, the USA join in and more than temporary landings can be planned. Not in Norway, of course, but in France, just like per OTL.
Furthermore, you are assuming Yugoslavia has managed to remain neutral. That is not necessarily true. The coup that changed the sympathies of the Yugoslavian government in OTL was not exclusively caused by what was happening in Greece, and even if Italy remains neutral, Yugoslavia has reason to fear and distrust the Italian Fascists. And if Yugoslavia does go pro-British, that won't go down well with Hitler.
Of course, once there are Luftwaffe units in Yugoslavia, the Otranto area becomes a dangerous place for British ships (note: those are international waters, no need of Italian or Greek permission). That is, for as long as the Luftwaffe isn't tied down and ground down on the Eastern Front.
Also, note that if there is no war in the Med, the British will have a surplus of ships in all classes.
The assumption that a neutral Italy can act as a middleman and buy oil for Japan, and carry that oil to Japan, is of course made on pure theory, with no numbers at hand. If you knew the figures about the Italian and Japanese economies you'd know the Italians were struggling to keep themselves fueled in their year of neutrality, and would have asked prices that the Japanese couldn't afford. If you knew the data about the world's oil production, you'd be wondering where that oil could come from. If you knew the numbers of miles of sea and the numbers of Italian tankers available, you'd knew this is not going to work. Finally, if you kept in mind the planning that was going on among the top Japanese decision-makers, you'd remember that buying oil at high prices from a foreign supplier along a precarious supply line wouldn't be seen as a satisfactory replacement of simply taking direct possession of the source.
If you want a "USA neutral" thread, may I suggest that you start one. Or better yet, read the existing ones, I'm sure there's plenty to learn there.
Well lets see. Italy is neutral with an intact Merchant Fleet and the ability to trade. Japan gets its oil cut off, well Mussolini who is a good friend will buy the Oil for Japan and deliver it. Japan thus has no need to attack the U.S. and without Japan's attack FDR can not maintain Lendlease to Britain for very long nor can he do much else. America isn't going to go to war over China.
All that damage was done by U.S. Bombers, not RAF Bombers who hit all the wrong targets and had terrible accuracy. 50 percent of their bombs fell outside the target circle which was seven kilometers in radius.
And this will accomplish little nor will it give the British the experience it needs to fight and maneuver on a Strategic Scale.
Why should Yugoslavia switch, they have the Italians who have a large army and an intact reputation in a position to stop such a coup and the Germans still have enough in OKW reserves to put a stop to British attempts. As for Otranto area. Regardless of whether its International Waters, they'll be passing between Italy and Greece who will tip off the Germans will tell the Yugoslavians that they either refuse the British help or their nation is dismembered.
And an Empire that needs to be defended, they still have to maintain ships in the Med and in the Pacific, not to mention the Atlantic. Not much in a surplus.
As of June 1940, the Italian merchant fleet comprised 786 ships with a gross tonnage exceeding 500 tons, for a total of 3,318,129 tons, and about 200 ships between 100 and 500 tons. 60% of these vessels are considered new ie built within the last five years. In addition they can add 50 German Merchant Vessels stuck in the Med after they are reflagged. Now add in additional 50 ships which will be nearing completion soon including four massive 8,000+ ton Tankers. Without active fighting these ships aren't being lost and they are building up Italy's economy by carrying oil to Japan and buying time for them to get their synthetic oil factories on line.
This is the American Fantasy Version of World War Two. Bomber Command was achieving far more accurate and effective bombing than the USAAF by the end. I shall have to look up the details tomorrow however.
You do raise an interesting question about the blockade issue, and whether it could be enforced on Italy. It would be interesting to know what was done in the Sept 39- June 1940 period.
Although I suspect it would make little different. How is oil to be transported from Italian ports to Germany? And how is oil from the Americas to be paid for by the Germans anyway?
Now, you just need to solve the issues I raised in my post. Such as, where will this oil be bought from (hint; the USA may well close their taps)? Where will the money come from (hint; Japan was strapped of hard currency)? How large an Italian tanker fleet (do yourself a favor and count the tankers, not all ships; the tankers the Italians were building were for their own needs, as the very fact that they were already building them should show) will be needed to keep fueled both the Italian colonies and Japan?
One might add that oil wasn't the only problem for Japan. For instance, nobody in the world produced significant amounts of natural rubber but the British, French and Dutch, and none of them were too eager to sell that to the Japanese; the Germans developed synthetic rubber production but the Japanese were far behind in that. The Germans' production was, of course, entirely needed at home. So even assuming none of the issues mentioned above as to oil is a problem, the helpful neutral Italian merchant navy still can't provide wheels for the Japanese trucks in China. Likewise, the Japanese produced no bauxite and nickel, negligible amounts of lead, molybdenum, potash etc. For several of these key strategic materials, the vast majority of the world production was in Allied hands, and what remained outside Japan was sorely needed by Germany (nickel production, for instance, the worst case, was 95% Western Allied, 3% Soviet, and 2% came from European sources and Germany could simply not make do without it).
As to the strategic bombing, you just need to read more. A few hints: the razing of Hamburg wasn't done by US bombers; the US bombers' accuracy, in the event, was not what some people believe; replacing roofing and machinery in a factory is cheaper and faster than replacing skilled manpower.
The British operations in this ATL 1941 will accomplish exactly the same they accomplished in OTL in 1941; divert German resources from the real fighting. In OTL, with less likelihood of British small-scale operations in Europe (they were committed in Africa), in June 1941 the Germans kept no less than 48 divisions facing such a threat. 148 were committed to the SU (counting all reserves here), and just 9 were in Africa or the Balkans. The British, in turn, had more troops in Africa (counting the Italian Eastern Africa campaign) than the Germans had in Africa and the Balkans. Thus in this ATL the British have at the very least as much capability as in OTL to distract the Germans in 1941, but likely more.
As to the British empire to be defended, le'ts try to keep track of your assumptions. No threat from a neutral Italy, Japan which doesn't need to go to war, the Germans can ignore the British because they are irrelevant... who will be threatening the Empire then? Even assuming the British decide they can't leave the Far East and the Med unguarded because Italy and Japan are unfriendly, and even assuming the Germans do hunt their shipping in the Atlantic and on the Murmansk run, the net effect of this ATL, with Italy certainly neutral is that the Royal Navy is definitely under less strain than in OTL; if you also get your wish and Japan also stays neutral, under much less strain. Just to name a few big names, Valiant, Queen Elizabeth, Prince of Wales…
As to why should Yugoslavia switch, that's a good question – meaning, it's a good question in OTL history. For starters, let's make it clear that the Yugoslavian coup did not mean suddenly allying with Britain. It meant passing from a position of pro-German neutrality to a position of pro-British neutrality. There were good reasons in OTL not to do that; while some, but not everyone, deem that the Prince and Simovic put too much hope in the British landing in Greece, which is the only event that does not take place in this ATL – at least not that early. In short, it was not a predictable, reasonable decision. If the answer, in this ATL, is "Yugoslavia just shouldn't", that's not very helpful, considering that it may very well be the same answer that applies to the same question – in OTL, and in OTL Yugoslavia did.
I see you have nothing to say as to the fact that the USA can still join the war. You also have nothing to say as to the obvious preference of the Japanese for actual control of oil wells, as opposed to iffy purchases. OK, those points are settled then.
Pulls out the capacity of Oilers in 1941 and a calculator. By my calculations give or take a few tons to account for leakage and other inefficiencies, Italy with it tankers can supply about 400,000 tons of Oil a year to Japan. That puts a crimp in the IJN's ability to move, but it isn't fatal and besides they have several older ships they need an excuse to get rid of. The Air Force will have to cut flight hours and retire older planes, but again not fatally so. Its a pain but with the strategic oil reserve and German technical assistance to get synthetic fuel plants going, they'll be fine.
And the Japanese isn't dependant on trucks and again the Italians can be the go betweens and never under estimate graft.
I didn't say the U.S. razed Hamburg. A man can be taught to do industrial tasks rather quickly, its management that requires skilled labor and their pay means they live in the outskirts away from the workers who were the targets of British raids. Besides the U.S. methods had a more profound effect.
Lets see, they got the Factories with the workers and management, they destroyed the parts and finish products, they knocked out the RR marshalling area slowing down movement of products, they attacked and destroyed the factory making the engines for the world's first AA missiles and it never recovered, they smashed the Oil targets further hindering German Army movements and enabling Allied Forces to move forward.
Compared to the British methods which just added to the carnage, the U.S. 8th Airforce ruled supreme in smashing the Third Reich's ability to make war.
"Yawn" Once again where is Britain going to go. It has nowhere to fight, the Germans are secured and won't even register Britain's feeble attempts to hit them.
Pirates, they are still around, the above named Neutrals still need to be reminded of Britain's ability, India still requires a fleet nearby, and pray tell how those ships are to decide anything?
And? Don't stop continue your thought.
Except Japan was willing to go with those purchases from the U.S. if the translators hadn't botched the translations of Japanese codes to their Ambassador resulting in face saving deal being misinterpreted as an ultimatum by Cordell Hull and scuttling the deal before it could be made.
Sorry, as to the oil supplies to Japan thanks to the Italian tanker fleet, I don't think you have taken into account the distances involved in your calculations. Actually I'm pretty sure about that, since you did not address the issue of where the oil comes from, so you can't have calculated the distances from the sources to Japan.
I'm also growing tired of your continuous avoiding answering to the other issues I raise. Who's going to provide the oil? How are the Japanese going to pay for it? If the Italian tanker fleet is dedicated to this task, who will carry oil to the Italian colonies? And so on and so forth; ignoring these problems with your far-fetched idea won't dispel them.
Likewise, I pointed out to you the whole larger issue of raw materials the Japanese lack and simply can't be bought from neutral countries, since they were produced only by the USA or by countries that had no reason to be friendly with Japan or by countries that, being at war, needed the strategic materials for their own effort. And your answer is… "the Japanese aren't dependent on trucks"? Do you mean that the very sizable land Japanese forces mired over an enormous Chinese territory had no trucks? Or do you mean they can let their trucks rot due to lack of tires and use only trains and draught animals, thus further degrading their capability of effectively countering enemy operations? Besides, trucks were just an example. You don't believe rubber only goes in soft-skinned ground vehicles, do you? Can the Japanese replace all their land and carrier-bases aircraft with seaplanes, so that they won't need rubber for the landing gears? What about the other uses for rubber, such as in tanks? Artillery gun wheels? Sealings? Home industries?
What about the other scarce raw materials?
As to the strategic bombing, you are putting forth platitudes about the workforce and old myths about the 8th Air Force. The figures tell a different story. The Goehle-Werke factory of Dresden was away from the bombed-out areas. Yet two weeks after the worst bombing on the city, its workforce was down from over 4,000 men to 2,000. That's not going to have an impact on the production? Neither the British nor the US bombs had hit the factory, yet the area bombing had cut the output by 50%. The Ica-Werke factory went from 2,800 to less than 500. The Zeiss-Ernemann from 2,500 to 600. A profound effect, I'd say.
As to training new personnel for industrial tasks, sure, you are right, it's quick and cheap – because you are making the mistake of counting the costs and time starting from a ready and willing and unemployed grown-up, basic-educated worker. Which is not the case with Germany at war.
As to the 8th Air Force reigning supreme in inflicting well-aimed damage onto Germany, it's time you learn some hard facts. In the final 4 months of 1944 the 8th Air force measured its accuracy as, under the best conditions, 82.4% of bombs within 1 mile of the aiming point. Under the worst conditions 5.6% of bombs within 1 mile of the aiming point. The best conditions were obtained on 14% of the raids, the worst on 35% of the raids. I repeat, this is an analysis by the involved unit itself. It means that in one raid out of three, they managed to place one bomb out of 20 within one mile of the target. So much for the usual claims.
As to the commitments of the Royal Navy, not one of the factors you mention was absent in OTL, while on the other hand at least one or, according to your wishes, two of its major enemies are neutral in this ATL. Insisting that this does not free very significant Royal Navy assets is weird.
As to the three battleships I mentioned, they were, just like the Japanese trucks, only an example. Should I list all the warships sunk by Italians, Germans in the Med, and Japanese? In any case, battleships are very handy when it comes to coastal bombardment, which the British did in OTL and will do in this ATL.
As to the Germans not even registering British attempts to hit them, sorry, but the figures I quote, which you keep ignoring, give the lie to your assumptions. Read again the previous message; learn how many divisions the Germans were keeping in the West as of June 1941, when they began their most momentous win-or-die campaign. They were there for one reason: because Britain had not thrown the towel in. After the Vaagso raid the Germans increased the size of their Norwegian garrisons and even deployed a panzer division there! Through to the end of the war, Hitler expected a British move up there! They were registering that threat, even when it was only a threat-in-being, and this removed forces from the main front.
This of course as to the naval-land threat. On top of that, there was the diversion of resources, aircraft, guns and men for countering the strategic bombing campaign. Read Speer's take of the Hamburg bombardment to see whether he registered it and whether he judged it "a feeble attempt".
As to the continuation of the Yugoslavian theme, it's finished. The point was that Yugoslavia can still have its coup in this ATL, even without a British landing in Greece. It's not in its best interests, but Yugoslavia didn't necessarily pursue its best interests in OTL. Now, of course the British may or may not be able to exploit the obvious German reaction. But in this ATL, the best German interest would be served by a continuous belt of neutral states protecting the south-eastern flank of Europe: Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Turkey. A hole in this shield provides the Allies with a place where they will not be violating a neutral's air space when they go and bomb Ploesti, and plant sea mines in the Danube, in the first place. And possibly, later on, with yet another place to land. Even if they don't land there, they can drop supplies to the partisans, threaten a landing, and thus divert German forces there.
As to the Japanese plans, the writing was on the wall. The Japanese had been planning their go-South move for years by then, and you don't grab Indochina for naval and air bases if you are just a peaceful good-faith businessman on the world's market for peaceful purchases.
I posted some data as to the actual 8th Air Force's accuracy.
The British stopped some Italian coalers carrying coal from Germany (only delayed them). it was a clear warning. This is a good example of Britain pushing the rules when it came to exploiting their control of the seas. In our case, for instance, I suspect they would not accept that a former-German-but-now-Italian-flagged merchant ship should not be seized.
To _Japan_, and paid _by the Japanese_. That's the suggestion (!).
Remember, the premise is both are neutral. So Allied-held chokepoints shouldn't be a problem - at least in theory, we all know that Britain could be creative with the rules when it came to its interests on the seas.
I asked that. No answer from the guy proposing it. I suppose some could be bought in South America, the only source that sells without strings attached by this time (and note the USA would have leverage over these countries), but certainly not enough to satisfy Japan needs, even assuming Italy could carry and Japan could pay.
Oh grief, that's halfway around the world, and all taken from shipping that has to meet Italy's normal import needs.
That's what I've been writing, but it seems not everything in my messages get read.
HJ Tulp
Donor
The only way the scheme would be allowed would be Japan striking a deal with the Chinese ending the Second Sino-Japanese war. Otherwise the Allies WILL interdict those shipments. They will probably not sink them as they want to keep Italy neutral but they will not let them reach Japan.
Michele said:
Well Mexico and Venezuela had relatively decent oilfields but as you say, the Americans wouldn't let them ship to Japan.
ThomasG has some 'interesting' ideas. Although he does sometimes come up with some things where I think "good knowledge, you don't read that every day" I think he is more often less thought through and informed than he should be.
Actually I did. Do the math yourself if you don't believe me. As for where the oil comes from, well lets see. The U.S., the Middle East, the Soviet Union, and the Dutch East Indies.
See above and it would be quite obvious if you would think for a second.
And your point? Italy is a neutral nation engaged in legitimate trade with friends by buying supplies for them. FDR can not close trade to them without justification.
Well lets see, the IJA has some 14,000 motor vehicles of all types, 9,000 of them in Manchuria. They relied mostly on Pack Animals to get around in the rugged terrain of China. Even then their dominance is largely fictional like that of todays U.S. Army in Iraq. Where they are they rule. Where they aren't warlords rule.
Japanese Artillery didn't use rubber tires, they used steel wheels, which makes sense for the rugged terrain they were used in. Tanks are rare and mainly used as a pillbox. Their rubber usage is rather low. Again, Italy can buy the rubber for them from Britain until the German's send specialists to show them how to make artificial rubber which they did in early 1941.
Again Italy can buy them for Japan which makes sense as Japan uses mostly other Nation's shipping to supply them with the Industrial Materials they need and they pay well.
And did I make the claim the area bombing didn't kill the workers? No I claimed it was more effective to hit the factories where the output is comming from and to knock out the management.
How so? Please enlighten me.
Did I claim the 8th had precision guided weapons (We did build TV Guided Bombs in that time frame though)? No I said their accuracy was better than the RAF's seven kilometer circle in which half their bombs failed to hit as reported to Churchill by his own fact finding team in 1941. A seven kilometer circle is a far bigger circle than a one mile circle.
Well then the USSR doesn't exist anymore, but we still maintain significant forces in Europe, the Japanese Empire no longer exist and China and India's navies are not a threat to us and neutral, yet we maintain powerful surface fleets in the Pacific instead of in the Gulf where we are fighting and actual war.We do it because it reminds those nations to play nice. Same concept here, the British have to maintain its current forces where they are to deter others from getting ideals, fight pirates, and escort convoys.
Did I claim they would be sunk? No I questioned their ability to affect the strategic situation. Bombard the shores of France? Okay and you accomplished what precisely?
They left an occupation force in France, no big deal, that was about 51 divisions, compare to 38 divisions in Germany itself, 8 in Norway, without Italy in the fight that frees up 17 divisions, then we have 93 divisions in Russia and three in Finland. Next month we get 40 divisions in France as ten divisions were pulled to the east along with 34 divisions from Germany itself.
Here is the breakdown at http://www.axishistory.com/index.php?id=7288
Do the math and bear in mind a German division averages about 9,000 men.
As for Norway only because the U.S. entry convince Hitler Churchill was serious about invading Norway. Without the U.S. involvement that threat is simply not credible to Hitler.
And did I challenge the human costs, no I challenged material costs as Britain got lucky with this strike in that a lot of factors went their way. If their new jamming system failed, the German night fighters would have dispersed their formation before they could drop.
Further without U.S. involvement this effort can't be done as Britain doesn't have the resources to pull it off.
Or Greece and Italy step in to prop up the current regime. They aren't fighting and neither wants an unfriendly regime to their North or an excuse for the Germans to jump in and the Germans are closer than the British. So Yugoslavia is a deadend no matter what.
Did I claim they didn't? No you are reading something completely different into what I am saying and planing does not mean it will be executed as for French Indochina, the IJA took advantage of French weakness and the French still ran the place administratively. What the issue is, is how effective can a trade embargo be when another nation ignores it by serving as a middle man for the nation being embargoed and the embargoing nation can not stop it.
HJ Tulp
Donor
ThomasG: The US, the Netherlands and the UK were slapping a oil-embargo on Japan. The minute they notice that Italy is reexporting their oil to Japan they stop dealing with Italy. So that leaves Italy high and dry as well. Reexporting is a very tricky business, it doesn't work with large quantities.