Italy stays neutral

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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@ whatisinaname
Also what is Italy stays out of WW2.
Italy was not ready for war in 1940 so POD is that Italy stays out of WW2.

Any comments ???

This is the Great TL-- Italia Eternalia-- [sp] which is some where in the Archives.
 

Deleted member 1487

Alright, based on some tips from tom_b I have revised my initial post. I plan to continue this TL through the war and maybe into a decade past it. I made important changes to the serbian section and the eastern front, as well as included some operations I left out.



1915:
even though italy had stayed neutral in the lastest european war, both sides began actively courting her before the first shot had been fired. She had so far stayed out by betraying the spirit of a defense treaty signed with the central powers, but by sticking to the letter of the treaty she was able to maintain her respectablity. The allies were offering italy exactly what she wanted: the south tyrol, dalmatia, trentino and other lands that would make italy a significant power and unite all italian speaking people into one country. The central power, who were in posession of most of the land that italy coveted, offered allied colonies in africa, and gold to tip the balance in their favor. However, italy wanted austro-hungarian land, which was not forthcoming. Everytime that the politicians citied ceceding the italians parts of austria, they were immediately rebuffed and told that was not possible. However as the war lasted past christmas, the austrians were in a shaky position. The eastern armies were smashed, the serbs remained unconquered and remained a thorn in the flesh of the empire, and the italians were making noises about joining the conflict. It seemed as though everyday brought more disasters. Even though the turks had joined the conflict, the austrians were still on the brink of collapse. It seemed as though one more problem would bring the whole country to its knees. The emperor was having trouble sleeping because of the latest reports that the italians were preparing to invade. He ultimately decided that night that he would approach the treacherous people to the south and see if he could reason with them. Luckily for the emperor, the italians recognized that their army was in no position to fight a modern war. They had large numbers of men ready to fight against the hated austrians, but the equipment was in very short supply. So, when the austrians approached the italians about a sale of land in early april, they were all ears. The cost of modernizing the army and seizing the land they wanted was enough that listening to the sales proposal was worthwhile. The emperor nearly wept to have to sell off part of his empire to these greedy bastards, but if losing a small part, which was filled with disloyal italians, saved the empire from collapse and partition, then the indignity must be borne. When the italians heard the deal, they kept quiet at first and needed time to mull it over. However, inside they were thrilled. They were gaining the south tyrol at little financial cost and were given promises about a plescibite in the other italian speaking provences after the war. The price was really neutrality. They decided to take it after a short discussion. As part of the treaty they were required to sign a nonagression pact with AH. The italians were not happy about this clause, but were getting what they wanted. Also, they could trade with the central powers, as they had to contend with the british blockade. The allies did not want to anger the italians by blockading their ports as they needed another front like they needed a hole in the head. Also, the british navy was needed in home waters to counter the high seas fleet. So, although the blockade continued to make the central powers tighten their belts, it did not stop the flow of vital supplies into Austrian and German factories. This would be crucial to the survival of the central powers when food shortages began.

Before the ink had dried, the AH troops stationed on the border with italy were traveling to the eastern front. The campaign of gorlitz-tarnow was in full swing and the extra troops which had been required to hold the italian border helped to maintain the advance. Although these troops were of poor quality and the offensive was primarily a german campaign, their addition gave german troops freedom from other duties to fight against the russians. As the offensive died down in september, the russians had lost over 200,000 men as prisoners and had over a quarter million casualties. As the lines settled down for the winter, the austrian troops began to retrain on the german model and were included in a joint German-Austrian command. This would later increase the effectiveness of the AH troops immensely, especially when Hindenburg and Ludendorff came to dominate the eastern front command. The breathing space gained by the offensive soon gave the Austrians a chance to deal with the serbians.

The serbs were in a bad way after the wasting battles of 1914. Most of the best troops had been sacrificed to stave off defeat, and had inflicted massive casualites on the austrians. However, with the victory won on the eastern front, austria had more troops available to serve on the balkan front. The troops brought in were veterans, and had the benifit of material superiority. The bulgarians had not been sitting idle. They had recognized the massive victory won over the russians and the failure of the dardandelles campaign. Soon negotiation brought them in the war. Their goal was to capture macedonia, which had been taken from them after the last balkan war. The central powers planned to begin the campaign in july of 1915, with forces freed up by the successes in russia. German and Austrian troops began to appear on the frontlines in mid july and were subordinate to general Mackensen the victory of the earlier east prussian battles. The bulgarians prepared themselves for battle and took the field to cut off the serbs when their lines were broken by the central powers. Soon the serbs found themselves in an untendable situation and tried to retreat to saftey. The western allies soon violated the neutrality of greece at salonika to support their rapidly crumbling ally. The allies began pulling several divisions from gallipoli to man this port. However, they were only in time to pick up the few survivors that had stumbled there way to safety after their army had been finally pinned down and crushed by the central powers. The allies decided to keep their forces in place to keep pressure on the bulgarians and austrians, but soon the troops began to fall ill in massive numbers to malaria. This would prove to be a major blunder as the central powers kept only minimal forces near the border. As the Central powers generals joked later, Salonika became the biggest internment camp in the world. Nearly 150,000 british and french troops would eventually be stationed in this useless base, and wouldn't have the chance to influence other theaters.

The allied attempt to force the dardandelles was turning into a disaster as the central powers had openned a rail line to their ottman ally. Now german guns, cannons, and munitions began to arrive in september to the turks, which made the campaign that much worse for the anzac troops. The decision to pullout was made in late september and withdrawals began early october. By the end, the allied troops were losing around 2,000 men a day. So, with their tails between their legs, the allies retreated and left the beaches scattered with munitions and their dead. However, turkey was hurt equally by this campaign and was thus unable to distract the allies in the caucus or in egypt, and the arab provinces were begining to seeth with rebellion as the british troops advanced on that front. However, with troops released by the failure of the landings, the ottomans were confident of their chances.

AH had a chance to retrain their battered armies at the end of 1915. With a surplus of troops for once, they were able to rest and reequip their troops on the german model which seemed to be working well. Although, the loss of junior officers and nco's had been devestating, this period of reorganisation improved the quality of AH's armies to above the prewar levels. Even with the bleeding sore of the eastern front to worry about, the emperor could rest easy now that his empire was safe. After the end of gorlitz-tarnow, the central powers convined to discuss strategy for the coming year. With the extra troops available now that serbia was gone and italy neutralized, it was decided that the eastern front would be the theater of decision in 1916, much to Falkenhayn's consternation. Overtures were made to Romania about entering the war and seizing bessarbia. The king considered their proposal looking at the string of victories for the central powers and the steady lossing streak of the allies.

The russians were beginning to have doubts about continuing the war. Their allies were proving to be less then helpful with dealing with the enemy. The western allies were proving to be too weak to force a decision in france, as offensive after offensive ground to a bloody halt. The italians were even selling war materials to their former enemy, seemingly turned friend. Defeat after defeat had finally made the tzar dismiss his brother as head of the army, and he decided to conduct the war himself. This would prove to be a fatal error.
 

The Sandman

Banned
I suppose an important question is just how neutral the Italians are in this TL, and whether they decide to break that once the Allies begin to collapse (in the hopes of getting a seat at the conference table).

The first one is particularly vital, as it would determine how many Austrian and French divisions are still deployed in the south in order to cover the Italian border. Also, if Italian neutrality toward the CP is anything like American neutrality towards the Allies, what chance is there that Britain (since France is somewhat busy elsewhere) would try something in order to "convince" the Italians to stop trading with Austria and Germany.
 

Deleted member 1487

You do raise a good point about the British. What thoughts does anyone have about what the British might do to 'encourage' the italians to stop trading war supplies? Also, remember that the dardandelles campaign just failed and that the high seas fleet must be kept bottled up.
 

Deleted member 1487

here is a rough draft for the east front in 1916. As always, any input is welcome and encouraged.

1916:
On christmas eve of 1915 the germans settled on a strategy for the coming year. Falkenhayn adamatly argued for an offensive against the french to 'deny britain its best sword' and to forstall any further allied offensives on the western front. He argued that if something was not done, then more punishing attacks would sap the german army's strength. Even though the germans were giving much better than they recieved, they were not without considerable casualties in the west. Citing his new doctrine of attrition, Falkenhayn wanted to take the fight to the allies and force them to attack in an unfavorable situation. They would have to attack at a disadvantage or lose the moral struggle, and by attacking would bleed themselves dry, while the germans perserved their strength for a decisive offensive at a later date. However, the dynamic duo in the east, Hindenburg and Ludendorff, demanded that they recieve the lions share of reinforcements so they could smash the russians and achieve peace on the eastern front. They citied the fact that the russians were constantly on the defensive and had been unable to mount and attack since Gorlitz-Tarnow. To give the russians breathing space now would allow them to restock and build strength to continue the war into 1917 or beyond. Ultimately Falkenhayn was the decision maker and noted the east first policy, but decided on his plan. However, Ludendorff was not going to take this sitting down. He approached the Kaiser with his plan and reasoning and tried to convince him to intervine. This by itself was not enough as Falkenhayn had the support of the army and the Kaiser did not want to second guess his generals. Ludendorff was a clever man though, and had approach the AH emperor with a personal appeal to talk to the Kaiser and help convince him to concentrate on Russia. The Emperor's army was still not fully capable to stand on its own and needed germany to keep the russians occupied until they were able to be trusted to fight by themselves. Also, with his sole enemy being russia, it was in his best interest to see that enemy defeated as soon as possible. Besides, he had plans in the works to court Romania and distract them from their goal of seizing Transylvania. After the emperor's exaggeration of the AH army's short comings and the plea to trust Ludendorff, the Kaiser finally intervined and forced Falkenhayn to give the Dynamic Duo what they needed to continue the struggle in the east.

Falkenhayn was Furious with Ludendorff for going behind his back and appealing to the Kaiser, but there was little he could do. So he gathered his staff and ordered them to find and way to improve their defensive doctrine. Currently, without the needed troops, they would need to find a way to perserve their strength until russia was defeated and still hold the allies.

The Duo began the year with and offensive in the baltic to secure the rich industrial provinces for the war effort and deny them to the russians. The city of Riga was captured late in January after a new type of artillery barrage smashed the russian defences and stunned the defenders into nonaction. General Bruckmuller was given the iron cross first class for his masterful new artillery doctrine which allowed for the overcoming of the russians with minimal cost. Soon, the russians were driven back to lake Peipus and the lines were formed and Narva. Livonia and estonia and large pockets of russians troops that were bottled up by fast moving german troops and the last one and surrendered by august. However, with this great success and breaking of the russians lines, the german troops became stretched and sucked up most of the german reserves in the area. As soon as the region was secured, Ludendorff had divided the baltic provences into six administrative areas and began running a war economy of exploitation. These areas became huge machine shops the supplied german troops in the area with whatever they needed. The massive success had several effects though.

The russians begged for help in the west to relieve the pressure and soon recieved it. By may both the french and british were conducting offensives to siphon off troops that could be used in the east. Also, many generals were dismissed by the tzar and trustworthy cronnies appointed. Also, some of the men the mystic Rasputin recommended found their way into command. This compounded russia's problems as the men now in charge had little experience commanding such large formations and instead of capitalizing of the german's overextension and lack of reenforcement, they dithered and conducted ill-timed and coordinated offensives that suffered massive casualties. The tzar himself took personal interest in these battles and tried to micromanage them to protect st. petersburg. These attempts just added delays and several attacks were driven back because terrible advice by Nicholas, who was not known for his military skill.

On other fronts the central powers began to advance as well. With the primary german thrust in the baltics, there were fewer troops to go around elsewhere. The Austo-Hungarians would be shouldering the burden in the south around the ukraine, but would have some german forces to back them up. It was decided that the center was to be left idle after the capture of pinsk, as noone was interested in fighting through the Pripet Marshes. Without other fronts to worry about, the austrians could concentrate substantial numbers of troops in the ukraine. Bulgaria had accepted occupation duties in serbia, as they would have had moral problems fighting against the russians. Even though some austrian troops were present, the vast majority were in russia. With the italian neutrality confirmed for the duration of the war. Austria was able to leave minimal troops there to guard the new borders. As the german offensive in the north jumped off, the austrian armies coordinated, with the german ones, started their next offensive to prevent more russians from heading north. The russians were at a disadvantage on this front as the last central power's offensive had been conducted against them. The largest share of new recruits and equipment had gone to them, but many troops were still raw and inexperienced. So, when the next offensive openned against them, many surrendered rather than fight. As this front had roughly equal numbers of central and russian troops facing each other, there were few reserves present to save the situation. With the fight in the north being more immediately important to the tzar, fewer men were transfered here to stablize the lines. The thinking was that the space of russia would allow the battered armies to retreat and eventually reform and the overextended attackers would be easy prey to these new armies.

However, some generals recognized that many russians were beginning to question the necessity of the war and a large defeat such as this would possibly cause other peoples in the empire to demand freedom from the tzar. The ukrainians were the first as they were the closest to the fighting, and a region as important to the empire as ukraine could not just be handed to the enemy without a fight. Luckily, one of the best generals that the russians possesed was now brought into the fight. General Brusilov had been studying various strategic and tactical problems that were appearing in this new age of warfare. He had institutionalized in his forces new artillery tactics and the infantry tactics of inflitration. He encouraged debate and the responsiblity of his commanders for their troops. As a result, when his army went into action around Proskurov, he manages to stop the enemy cold. Soon, he had taken nearly 40,000 prisoners and had the AH armies in retreat. The lack of replacements, munitions and the timely arrival of a german corps prevented the rolling up of central power's lines. However, it did give them bloody nose and stopped the advance for the forseeable future.

Russia was given some breathing space for the time being, more as a result of the need for central power's troops to man longer lines and occupy more territory than russian action. Luckily, for russia, the industrialization efforts of the tzar were coming to fruition and enough muntions and equipment were available to russian troops and new armies forming to the east. They were down, but not out. Unfortunatly the Austrians were able to continue to occupy land further south in the ukraine as the armies there did not have to contend with a general as competent as Bursilov, but the overall advance was stopped to contend with the new threat of armies forming in northern ukraine for a counter offensive. Brusilov was given overall command as he at least could demonstrate some success in this war of disasters. But this counter blow would not be ready until later in the year, and the austrians and germans would have time to ready themselves for the coming battles.

With these success in the ukraine and the baltic provinces, the central powers renewed their campaign to draw romania into the war with promises of gold and bessarbia. As the ailing King of romania was of german decent, he had been pushing for the support of the central powers from the beginning of the war. He country though coveted Hungarian land in translyvania and waited to see if Russia could deliver. However, with Russia suffering so many losses and the lack of support that they would be able to offer, romania began to look east to the provinces there that they could receive. Even though they were not as economically developed as translyvania and sparsly popluated, at least they could recieve something from this war. Who knows maybe even more of ukraine could be seized if they were bold enough. Soon romania began coming around. After the halting of Brusilov's counter offensive in june, Romania began to respond to central powers' enticement. It was eventually agreed upon that for recieving gifts of gold, large contracts of natural resouces, and besarbia, Romania would enter the war against russia. With the final payment recieved in August, Romania declared war and marched east as natural resources, such as oil and wheat headed west. Russia war unprepared for this eventuality and was thrown off balance by this latest setback. Romanian troops although equiped with older weapons and materials, were still present in large numbers and were hardy men. They pushed russians defenses far back into ukraine. Finally the advanced stopped as the supply lines were outrun and troops began having to live off the land. With the fall of Chisinau, the romanians dug in on the Dneister and prepared for a winter campaign that would take them to the Bug and beyond.

With the entry of Romania and the shattering of the lines in Ukraine, the tzar demanded that Brusilov start his long awaited offensive. Although he still needed time to stockpile munitions and train his new troops, the demands of the tzar bypassed all of these concerns. So with a heavy heart he ordered the offensive. Although the intial attacks went well, the russian troops became disheartened when the austrians finally stood their ground and halted the offensive. As Brusilov prepared to bring forward more guns to help continue the advance, he as hit with a counter offensive by german troops looking to relieve pressure on their ally. The newer troops had been used to hold the flanks of the advance as they could not be trusted to advance quick enough and with enough skill to break the enemy lines. For many this was the first time in combat and with the new artillery doctrine developed by Bruckmuller, they fled or surrendered rather than hold their ground. With his flank folding, Brusilov had to halt the advance and send his veteran troops to counter this attack. However, as he did this an AH army that was waiting for the russians to continue their attacks was freed from the reserve and put on the offensive on the opposite flank of the attack. The Austrians were shocked at how quickly their advance was and how many prisoners they were recieving. To this point they had been unable to meaningfully hurt the russian armies. Always the russian soldier had held firm against the austrians and made they pay for any success. With this success the AH soldiers took heart and seized the momentum for themselves for once. Brusilov realized that although he could hold one flank, he could not hold both and if he did not pull back soon he would lose a whole army. He gave the order to retreat, but this did not come soon enough for many and nearly 250,000 russian soldiers marched into captivity. Almost one million men had been lost in the offensive and the remaining troops had lost heart for battle. The southern russian army was a shadow of its former self and would not be fit for more combat for at least a six months. The central powers followed up on their success and seized Berdichev, but had to stop there as there lines were now badly stretched with open flanks. The generals considered it worth the risk as there were no troops to oppose them. Their armies were badly mauled and had suffered close to 450,000 casualties. Any more attacks were out of the question for quite sometime. The romanians were urged to follow up and close the gap in the south by moving up to the Bug. The austrians were told that the romanian armies would advance when they could.

The year of battles wound down on the eastern front and the central powers were unquestionably winning. It was now apparent to everyone that it was a matter of time until the war was over there. How soon would suprise many. On christmas day riots would break out in most major cities in Russia, none worse than in St. Petersburg. When the civilians would not disperse, the Tzarina, who was advised by Rasputin, ordered the military garrison to restore order by force. Soon troops had opened fire on crowds demanding peace. With the spilling of innocent blood came a massive backlash as many troops refused to confront the civilians and many joined them. Many firefights broke out as armed civilians and troops battled for control of the city. The royal family fled and headed to the Tzars headquarters for safety. However, by the new year it was apparent that all control over the city was lost and that many others were soon to fall. Many of the troops at the front gave up hope when they found out and began walking home. It seemed that the russian people had spoken and they wanted peace.




So, how plausable is this TL so far? I don't know how to make maps or I would have included some to make thing much more clear. Any suggestions?
 
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