Italy Shall Not Fight - a TL

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3. Hungary becoming a monarchy again is unlikely, considering the claim that would be to Rome Pact countries' territory not to mention that the Habsburgs claim the Austrian throne too. Italy doesn't want that. Big nono.

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Technically the Kingdom of Hungary is a monarcvhy with Admiral Horthy as Regent and the throne vacant. Just saying.

I realize the Roman Pact would not allow it. I was thinking post Fascist Hungary.

Ironically the USSR is a greaty asset to Roman PAct regimes; with the Red menace looming and the exam,ples of Polamnd and Finland for all to see, the regimes can justify many extreme policies and lack of reform.
 
OK, here's the last update for those who want it ;):D.



Chapter V: Glory and Decay, 1965 – 2010.


The new Duce Italo Balbo had consolidated power within the Grand Council of Fascists by the mid 1960s and was ready for some more foreign adventures while in the meantime continuing the brutal colonial war in Italian East Africa. Unlike the Americans and British, Balbo didn’t have many scruples about allying openly with dictatorial and oppressive regimes. Balbo for instance supported a Peronist coup in Argentina against the military dictatorship that had overthrown Juan Peron in the first place. In 1966 Juan Peron was once again established as the authoritarian leader of Argentina, establishing a dictatorship which was modelled on Italy as Peron had more than once openly expressed his admiration for Fascist Italy and Mussolini. In return for assistance from the Rome Pact in his return to power which gave him solid power, Peron joined this alliance. This almost immediately led to a proxy war in South America between Peronist Argentina and Chile which was led by a distinctly leftwing oriented regime under President Salvador Allende who headed the Socialist Party of Chile. The US also tacitly supported Argentina’s claims on Chilean territory in the Beagle Channel although, like with Franco’s Spain and Fascist Italy, Washington didn’t openly side with the Argentines. The diplomatic crisis caused by these Argentine irredentist claims on the islands of Picton, Lennox and Nueva in the Beagle Channel exploded when Argentine forces occupied these islands with fire support from former Italian battleship Littorio which the Italians had sold to Argentina. The remaining three of her class, Vittorio Veneto, Roma and Impero, were modernized with advanced fire control systems, new radar and better protection, partly since these ships gave Italy prestige. They would get company from two new Italian aircraft carriers, Aquila and Falco. A third called Sparviero was finished several years later in 1975. In the meantime, the Argentine army equipped with Italian main battle tanks, largely based on both western and Soviet designs, helicopter gunships, third generation jetfighters, modern infantry weapons and so on beat the Chilean army in a number of engagements. After six months of stalemate and severe Chilean losses, an armistice was requested by Santiago. Argentina, and thus the west, had scored another victory over “communism”. The result was that the Chilean army under general Augusto Pinochet overthrew the democratically elected government and established a military dictatorship.

Similarly, Italy had no qualms about supporting the Apartheid regime in South Africa, a regime which the US didn’t want to be seen talking to due to its status of international pariah. All of this gave Italy a dubitable international standing, but a lot was tolerated in order to fight communism and win the Cold War. The uprisings and unruly sentiments of the black population in South Africa were actively and brutally oppressed by means of terror tactics learned from Italy who also exported them to the unrecognised state of Rhodesia. This state was ruled by a white minority government after its unilateral and unrecognised declaration of independence in 1965. Here too, brutal anti-guerrilla scorched earth tactics, terror, deportation and intimidation were used to keep the majority black population of Rhodesia in line, with Rome providing funding, weapons and military advisors. Resistance to white rule was largely crushed although low-level guerrilla and terrorist activity would simmer on in both Rhodesia and South Africa. South Africa was unacceptable to the west and treated as a pariah, but Balbo was unscrupulous in his choice of allies and proxies. South Africa too was admitted into the Rome Pact although Rhodesia was not. As much as Balbo wanted to continue to expand his bloc, he didn’t want to antagonize Britain by recognising Rhodesian independence. As much as the government in Salisbury requested recognition from the Rome Pact’s members, Balbo always postponed it and made only minor concessions although Rhodesia was arguably a de facto member which made it impossible for Britain to act as Rhodesia erected its own army. Balbo did, however, support India’s ambitions for nuclear power actively as India bordered the People’s Republic of China, colloquially known as North China. The result was a 50 kiloton test in 1970, the strongest first test so far which made India the second Asian nuclear power. This spurred a Pakistani nuclear program and rapprochement to the Soviet Union. India, nevertheless, declined to join the Rome Pact since it couldn’t be associated with countries like South Africa as a democratic power, the largest in the world in fact. It did ally itself to Chiang Kai-Shek’s South China or Republic of China since it bordered North China.

By the 1960s decolonization was taking place everywhere and a new youth culture was emerging in Western Europe. Asia had been first to be decolonized with Indian independence in 1947, Burmese independence in 1948 and Indochinese independence in 1954 after a vicious decade long struggle against the French army. The Dutch had, since 1944, granted more and more concessions to the Dutch East Indies because they recognised which way the wind was blowing. Extensive education systems were the start of a gradual emancipation as it brought forth the independent minded Indonesian thinkers that would later become the country’s leaders. Several KNIL units had also fought in Europe against the Germans and the Dutch East Indies were getting their due reward and would evolve into the Indonesian Royal Army later. Unrest among the population rose as they clamoured for more autonomy, albeit in a peaceful manner since they knew the Dutch weren’t keen on a long colonial war after four years of occupation and the need to rebuild. By the early 1960s, Indonesia was independent and in a Commonwealth-style relationship with the Dutch as the Kingdom of Indonesia which excluded the Moluccas who chose to remain part of the Netherlands. Indonesia was fully independent, but with the Dutch monarchs as their ceremonial heads of state, a customs union and a military alliance. Africa was quite a different story. Regimes like those of Portugal and Italy were fighting to hold onto their empires in a brutal struggle. Even democratic states like Britain and France were fighting rebellions against their rule which were supported by the Soviet Union although the democratic powers were relatively civil in their oppression of the colonies. By the 1960s, resistance against colonialism was growing in the western powers too as many people didn’t want to send their fathers, husbands or sons to their deaths in faraway Africa, the dark continent. Both France and Britain gradually caved in under the pressure of their people and due to the costs of suppressing these colonial subjects. The British and French African empires were all but independent by 1970 with the district of Oran remaining as a French exclave in Algeria while Rhodesia remained de facto independent due to Italian support and ignored due to its Apartheid-style regime among other things. Italy and Portugal were different stories. Libya had been all but subdued except for some sporadic terrorism, but Italian East Africa saw fiercer resistance due to its larger population and Soviet support. In Portugal, the Estado Novo regime squashed a popular revolt in 1974 with Italian aid to continue its war in Angola and Mozambique, but in the end the Estado Novo regime would be overthrown in 1982 after the fall of fascism. Franco was more acquiescent, but then his colonial empire didn’t really add much to Spain’s national pride. Spain was also to be the first democracy of the Rome Pact when Juan Carlos, Franco’s designated heir, issued elections. This made Spain a mediator between the west and the fascist world. Spain definitely asserted itself when it achieved nuclear power in 1977 and tested an atomic bomb.

The world itself was changing too. In Western Europe New Age, leftwing, neo-pagan and neo-fascist youth movements arose. Except for the neo-fascist ones, these movements were vigorously against colonialism and for more civil liberties, supporting strong leftwing or even communist ideals. The neo-fascist ones were a small, but vocal minority who were surprisingly strong in Germany and vigorously distanced themselves from neo-Nazism even though some of their members had anti-Semitic and racist tendencies. This was downplayed as rhetoric about anti-communism, anti-liberalism, nationalism, order and discipline were dominant. Several of these movements arose in the US too with occasional cooperation with neo-Nazis and very rarely the Ku Klux Klan although they distanced themselves from racist ideas in most cases even though their support base consisted for 95% out of white people. They nonetheless strictly adhered to Mussolini’s original ideas and denounced Hitler at every opportunity as a racist closet-communist, his party wasn’t called National-Socialist for nothing according to them, and said he was as bad as Stalin. The American Fascist Party, as it is called, exists until today although it is far from its height in the 1960s and 70s when it had several hundred thousand members compared to only a few tens of thousands now. Italy itself too was plagued by leftwing youth movements although Balbo, and after his death in 1976, his protégé Berlusconi attempted to suppress them. The latter, however, was less popular than his predecessors had been since he lacked the personal magnetism, charisma and leadership skills that were attributed to Mussolini and, to a lesser extent, Balbo. Fascist Italy, however, would have one last opportunity to shine with India trying to make a move against Portugal which still held Goa, a colony then and nowadays a district in India, by the mid 1970s thanks to strong Italian support. India, by now, had developed a nuclear deterrent of its own, ironically with Italian help, and was feeling more confident than ever and so they annexed Goa in 1977 which led to a strong reaction from the Rome Pact states who exercised their duty to give military support. Italian battleships Vittorio Veneto, Roma and Impero were dispatched to the Indian Ocean along with aircraft carriers Aquila, Falco and Sparviero and several escorts in the shape of nuclear-capable submarines and destroyers, an intimidating force to say the least and war threatened. Italian warships quickly defeated the weaker Indian navy and under strong fire support some 80.000 Italian and Portuguese soldiers landed and encountered the Indian army. Both sides threatened to retaliate by any means possible in the event of further escalation and a standoff occurred with Indian forces on one side and Italo-Portuguese forces on the other and the latter quickly strengthened his position. The matter even came up in the United Nations Security Council as the Soviet Union proposed sanctions against Italy and Portugal, which were rejected by the other five permanent members. The Italian veto against sanctions made them impossible anyway and a low-level shooting war continued in Goa. In the end a compromise mediated by the US was reached. Goa would be given full internal autonomy as a “dominion” while India and Portugal jointly administered foreign policy and defence. A referendum deciding on the future fate of Goa was to be held within ten years.

This show of force was not enough to save fascism in its traditional form, more so since democracy was slipping into the Rome Pact itself. Tsar Simeon II of Bulgaria had announced democratic reform (while confirming his ties to Italy). In Hungary, the regency was ended and a republic declared while Spain had reformed into a constitutional monarchy. Youth movements clamoured for democracy and civil rights. Besides this, there were fractures within the fascist party itself. During Balbo’s reign already a more progressive, leftwing republican faction had emerged as opposed to the ‘conservative fascists’ who followed Mussolini’s style of rule strictly and Balbo had managed to balance them out, but Berlusconi could not as the divides were simply too large. In 1981, tensions came to an eruption as the police shot a protesting student, invoking massive protests. Tens of thousands took to the streets in Rome alone and other major cities followed in the peaceful protests. In Rome, riots erupted as the police tried to disperse the protestors and these soon escalated into violence and looting. This was not the scene over all of Italy, but the Grand Council of Fascists feared that a revolution could occur and overthrow them violently. Therefore, they were amenable to concessions to the protestors and Berlusconi’s tough approach was abandoned in favour of the first democratic elections in six decades which gained support from King Umberto II. In the face of these developments, Berlusconi dared not flaunt the king. In 1982, exactly 60 years after Mussolini’s March on Rome and coup d’état, Italy had its first elections. This did not, however, mean that the fascists were hated or reviled. Among the middle classes and those old enough to have consciously experienced the glory days of fascism between the late 1930s and mid 1960s still supported fascism. Mussolini himself was generally still revered as a national hero and a modern Caesar for dragging Italy out of its position of middle power on the periphery of Europe. The elections of 1982 were a blow to Berlusconi who had a lot less credibility than Mussolini ever had since he had the dubious honour of being the last and shortest reigning Duce of Italy. The leftwing, progressive faction split off from the Partito Nazionale Fascista as the Fronte Popolare which means Popular Front or People’s Front. The result was a coalition government, unseen since before 1922. It consisted of the Catholic Centre Party, the Liberals and the Fronte Popolare. The communists and the PNF were pushed into the opposition and for the latter this was the first time in its history. The decade and a half that followed would see the PNF in the opposition only to make its comeback in the latter half of the 1990s.

What followed was democratic reform to a constitutional monarchy. Albania was given a large degree of autonomy as well as Libya although it was heavily Italianized. Ethiopia finally became independent with Amha Selassie I restored as Emperor of Ethiopia since its population had been too large to Italianize although Italy did leave its legacy since three quarters of the population had Italian as a second language and over ten percent had Italian as their first language. Eritrea and Somalia had been successfully Italianized and remained Italian territory with an autonomous status. Especially Somalia was deemed important for Italy due to the Puntland oil. The fall of fascism was of course trumpeted to the world by Soviet propaganda, but the fall of communism as it existed wasn’t far away.

The Soviet Union and its 550 million strong bloc of communist states were still a significant global player, but at a cost even if Moscow didn’t show that side in their rhetoric and propaganda. The brute force command economy had its toll in terms of human lives, it wasted resources, created a one sided economy focused on heavy industry and arms production, and it was riddled with glaring inefficiencies, corruption, poverty and a decreasing living standard as well as a general lack of motivation and growing cynicism as the cult of personality and state propaganda no longer had the desired effect. The Soviet economy went along throughout the 1980s out of fear for the Stalinist regime, but slowly the leadership of the country passed away. Bulganin had died in 1975 and Molotov passed away in 1986 by which time he was senile anyway. Kaganovich was the last to pass away in 1991 and so the last of Stalin’s old guard died. The result was a period of chaos as decades of purges, deportations and genocides had wiped out most of those competent enough to lead the USSR. The Soviet Union, fortunately, didn’t have much to fear from ethnic strife anymore since deportations and genocides had made sure that “disloyal elements” had been radically purged. Eventually, a reform minded leadership arose and consolidated in the mid 1990s (reform minded didn’t mean democratic of course). They slightly loosened control in a thaw although an authoritarian regime remained. Some privatisations took place as well as troop withdrawals from Moscow Pact countries and serious cutbacks on defence to free up money for drastic economic reform which would cause some serious hardships for the population, but would ultimately lead to economic growth and better use of the USSR’s national resources. The USSR itself was reformed into a looser confederal form known as the Union of Sovereign Soviet Republics, a Socialist leaning regime, but not Stalinist any longer and with something of a free market economy.

The result was a collapse of the communist regimes in Slovakia, East Germany and Romania and Moscow accepting a place behind the capitalist world. The result was that Slovakia and North China broke with the Soviet Union with the former joining NATO. Romania, due to resentment to Bulgaria and Hungary, remained, as did Mongolia and Korea which saw reform too. North China saw a palace coup by reformers who wanted to reunite with South China which had seen democratic reform after the death of Chiang Ching-Kuo in 1989 who had succeeded his father in 1975. With 1.2 billion inhabitants, South China was the world’s largest democracy and economically it was rapidly growing, having overtaken the USSR already. Reunification, however, would be hard with North China poverty stricken and rotten. The north was renamed the Democratic Republic of China which received massive economic investment from the South, the US and the west. A date for unification was set in 2015.
As of today, that deadline is still being maintained and both Chinas are growing rapidly in the economic field and they are integrating more every day. China seems destined to become a superpower too. In the meantime, NATO saw a reunification too. After the fall of communism East Germany joined the West and pan-German sympathies in Austria and resentment over the occupation and then the separation from Germany was simmering. The Austro-fascist regime was overthrown during the winter of 1984-’85 in a series of popular strikes and riots in a very similar way to what happened in Italy. Pressure was high to let Austria join Germany even though both France and Italy feared a resurgent Germany. In the end, the will of the people mattered and in a referendum the Austrian people voted for a “Second Anschluss” as feared. Germany was finally allowed to join with Austria and also take the Austrian zone in Berlin although Germany was forced to accept binding treaties which tied it to both NATO and the Rome Pact. The rise of China and India and the fragmentation of the Soviet sphere of influence led to a multi-polar world and the shape of the 21st century and things to come.
 
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Interesting TL, although I don't know how much tolerance the US would have for Italian interference in South America. That was traditionally OUR place to mess with.

Plus, I would imagine the "Rome Pact" would be REALLY unpopular in much of the US body politic due to its involvement with apartheid South Africa.

Also, what does the post-Salazar Portuguese government do with Mozambique and Angola? It was the decolonization of those states that gave anti-Rhodesian guerrillas more foreign backing and sanctuary, enabling them to force the white government to the table.

If something similar happened in TTL, it would be egg on the Rome Pact's face, especially since the establishment of Zimbabwe would in turn give guerrillas more sanctuaries on apartheid South Africa's borders.

Also, given the time it would take for a Rome Pact force to sail to India, the Indians would have plenty of time to build up and await the coming of the enemy. And a surface fleet would be vulnerable to nuclear attack.

A more dramatic end to fascism would feature the nuclear destruction of the Italian fleet off the Indian coast and the destruction or capture of the Italian forces that had already landed by prepared Indian troops setting off a popular uprising against the fascist government, much like the British victory in the Falklands War brought down the Argentine junta.
 
Interesting TL, although I don't know how much tolerance the US would have for Italian interference in South America. That was traditionally OUR place to mess with.

Plus, I would imagine the "Rome Pact" would be REALLY unpopular in much of the US body politic due to its involvement with apartheid South Africa.

Also, what does the post-Salazar Portuguese government do with Mozambique and Angola? It was the decolonization of those states that gave anti-Rhodesian guerrillas more foreign backing and sanctuary, enabling them to force the white government to the table.

If something similar happened in TTL, it would be egg on the Rome Pact's face, especially since the establishment of Zimbabwe would in turn give guerrillas more sanctuaries on apartheid South Africa's borders.

Also, given the time it would take for a Rome Pact force to sail to India, the Indians would have plenty of time to build up and await the coming of the enemy. And a surface fleet would be vulnerable to nuclear attack.

A more dramatic end to fascism would feature the nuclear destruction of the Italian fleet off the Indian coast and the destruction or capture of the Italian forces that had already landed by prepared Indian troops setting off a popular uprising against the fascist government, much like the British victory in the Falklands War brought down the Argentine junta.

Well, Argentina is kind of out of the neighbourhood. Peronism is anti-communist so any restoration of Peron would be better for the US (it's not like Argentina will openly oppose the US even if its officially in the Rome Pact which is an officious partner of NATO anyway).

Mozambique and Angola eventually get independent in the 1980s after the collapse of the Estado Novo regime. Rhodesia, I suppose, becomes independent in the 80s too with fascism no longer a threat and Rhodesia de facto independent anyway.

As for the intervention in India, Italy has a nuclear arsenal + delivery capabilities so any Indian nuclear attack triggers MAD.

Anyway, thanks for liking my TL:).
 
As for the intervention in India, Italy has a nuclear arsenal + delivery capabilities so any Indian nuclear attack triggers MAD.

What kind of range does Italy's arsenal have? India's likewise?

(Reaching India from Italy itself or from East Africa would require an advanced missile capacity, for starters.)

If India used a tactical nuke and threatened reprisal against Italian possessions in Africa and Italy itself (and could do it) if Italy retaliated against its cities, this might prompt a revolt by Italians already alienated from fascism who don't want to get nuked over Goa.

Heck, the revolt could begin in the colonies, which would be more vulnerable than Italy itself.
 
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