Italy remains neutral in World War II. What happens to its territories and colonies?

Lusitania

Donor
Pretty much. Ethiopia is a lost cause, Somalia is not great, but I can see Eritrea becoming an Italian French Guiana.

The thing is that Italy could about double size of Eritrea and Somalia at expense of Ethiopia and even split Ethiopia into several smaller countries along ethnic or tribal lines and maintain friendly if not proxy control over some of them. Might make things a bit unstable for while but in time these countries will move towards self preservation.
 
there was a thread posted not too long ago about an early Italian invasion of Yugoslavia (during the 1930's) which seems a good POD as to Italian neutrality?

my speculation was that Germany obtained an earlier Anschluss to side with Italy, which opportunism poisons their relations.

so somewhat recognizable events leading up to 1939? but with Italy exhausted from adventures in Africa, Balkans, and Spanish Civil War? and poorer relations with Germany?

Possibly. Further details would be needed, but at first sight, this might sound workable.
 
About Italy and Yugoslavia; Italy already held all of Istria as far east as Rijeka/Fiume and the islands of Cres and Losini as well as Zadar/Zara and island of Lastovo/Lagosta. More inroads on the Dalmatian coast than post-WWII.
I don't see Italian neutrality during the Battle of France change much - the southern alpes fortifications would still be manned and OTL troops were pulled out from there and sent west to try slow the German advance.

The major Italian problem was energy supply - i.e. coal! They got it from Germany as Britain couldn't/didn't want to supply it. Have a look here https://www.resilience.org/stories/...-some-historical-insights-energy-and-economy/
Even during the Phoney War Britain did what it could to bar shipping of German coal to Italy - prior to Italys DOW. So to keep the industry running Italy have to have coal from somewhere. At some point when they have to side with the Allies against Germany or at least adopt a pro-Allied neutrality they have to find a supplier.

Italy had sold warships to the Soviet Union during the 1920's so might be able to let realpolitik outmatch anti-communism at least in economics!

Britain will have an easier time in the Med ITTL without Rommel running around NA and Fliegerkorps X in Sicily. Also no Germans in Greece and more importantly Crete. At some point - if Romania joins the Nazis the Ploesti oilfields will need bombing; could prove damn hard ITTL mostly so if Romania stays neutral too and supplies Germany with oil.

Italy may still build its four engine bomber the Piaggio 108 and develop the four engine airliner at wars end to serve own airlines and for export though Europe will still be swamped by ex-USAAF C-47 at pick-up price. They may however have difficulty in developing high performance fighter planes like the late Fiat/Reggiane/Macchi powered by DB603 engines though they may still be able to buy a manufacturing licence.

On the positive side we would have the original Monte Cassino Monastry and the emperor Caligulas huge ships from the Pontine Swamps.
 
Would Libya even remain a part of Italy? By modern times Libya would make up 10% of the Italian population. The Libyan population is 6,500,000 by modern times a enough to retain a majority in Libya given the far lower Italian birthrate and starting Italian population even accounting for Italian plans for 500,000 settlers by 1960s that would still leave the Italians a minority of the population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_settlers_in_Libya#Emigrants

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/libya-population/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/italy-population/
 
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Would Libya even remain a part of Italy? By modern times Libya would make up 10% of the Italian population. The Libyan population is 6,500,000 by modern times a enough to retain a majority in Libya given the far lower Italian birthrate and starting Italian population even accounting for Italian plans for 500,000 settlers by 1960s that would still leave the Italians a minority of the population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_settlers_in_Libya#Emigrants

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/libya-population/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/italy-population/

The oil would definitely lead to large scale Italian settlement.
 
I just note that, with a POD after the proclamation of the Empire in Italian East Africa, talks about "Ethiopia", "Somalia" and "Eritrea" under anything approaching OTL's border are not necessarily valid under the assumption that Italy, as a neutral in WWII, is able to keep pursuing its policies in the whole area.
I would assume that whatever division of the area sticks when political decolonization comes (which is probably going to be after some sort of military conflict to a point) will be the endgame order; likely meaning that Ogaden is mostly with Somalia, if an independent Somalia emerges; and that "Eritrea" might include a lot more than IOTL (not necessarily to its benefit).
 
likely meaning that Ogaden is mostly with Somalia, if an independent Somalia emerges; and that "Eritrea" might include a lot more than IOTL (not necessarily to its benefit).
Here the internal borders of Italian East Africa

Italian_East_Africa_1938%E2%80%931941.svg.png
 
Would Libya even remain a part of Italy? By modern times Libya would make up 10% of the Italian population. The Libyan population is 6,500,000 by modern times a enough to retain a majority in Libya given the far lower Italian birthrate and starting Italian population even accounting for Italian plans for 500,000 settlers by 1960s that would still leave the Italians a minority of the population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_settlers_in_Libya#Emigrants

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/libya-population/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/italy-population/

All I can say from the numbers is that it was *feasible*, not necessarily that it was probable.

The biggest number that matters is the population of Libya: Because that number was unusually small. Changing its demographic profile - while hard - is not nearly as hard as it would have been in, say, Algeria, Kenya, or South Africa.

Italian fertility had been in decline for some time, but was actually quite stable at around 3.0 during Mussolini's pre-war tenure. Meanwhile, life expectancy was surging. So for the moment, the Italian government had a modest but significant demographic advantage to work with.

The Italian population of Libya had reached 12% mostly in the last few years before the war. So it was really a question of what political will there was to move people there and find work for them to do. That would have become a struggle before long - until the discovery of oil deposits in the 50's, at any rate.
 
Would Libya even remain a part of Italy? By modern times Libya would make up 10% of the Italian population. The Libyan population is 6,500,000 by modern times a enough to retain a majority in Libya given the far lower Italian birthrate and starting Italian population even accounting for Italian plans for 500,000 settlers by 1960s that would still leave the Italians a minority of the population.

You should start by looking at the 1939 population, which was a puny 890,000, with 14% of those being Italians. The birth rate of Italy today is incredibly low, but you should look at what it was back then. If the Fascist government keeps sending say 20,000 settlers per year for ten years, a sustainable rate for a country not at war, that's 200,000 more Italians in Libya by 1949.

It also remains to be seen how far and how fast citizenship rights are granted, whether the racial laws against Jews remain in force, how large can a pro-Italian, Italian-speaking, city-dwelling, middle-class Arab population become. It's not a given that all of the latter want independence.
 
@ Michele: Absent the German push on antisemtic laws, the Italian government could encourage more "Italians" to go to Libya by making it exempt from those laws, so more opportunity for Jews there. Additionally increasing efforts to Italianize the locals, especially those on the coast with education in Italian, and more opportunities for those who convert to Catholicism will help. "Italianized" Arabs, especially by the early to mid-1950s when oil discoveries are made, will have a strong personal reasons for supporting Italy rather than some Arab independence movement. They, and equally importantly, their children, would be seen as as foreign as the Italian settlers. Especially for those who have become agnostic or converted the second generation of "Italian Arabs" will be seeing intermarriage, yet another bond.

If the bulk of the coastal/settled Arab populations becomes sufficiently "Italianized" or heavily invested in the system, the position of the deep desert or nomadic tribes is much less important.
 
@ Michele: Absent the German push on antisemtic laws, the Italian government could encourage more "Italians" to go to Libya by making it exempt from those laws, so more opportunity for Jews there. Additionally increasing efforts to Italianize the locals, especially those on the coast with education in Italian, and more opportunities for those who convert to Catholicism will help. "Italianized" Arabs, especially by the early to mid-1950s when oil discoveries are made, will have a strong personal reasons for supporting Italy rather than some Arab independence movement. They, and equally importantly, their children, would be seen as as foreign as the Italian settlers. Especially for those who have become agnostic or converted the second generation of "Italian Arabs" will be seeing intermarriage, yet another bond.

If the bulk of the coastal/settled Arab populations becomes sufficiently "Italianized" or heavily invested in the system, the position of the deep desert or nomadic tribes is much less important.

Exactly, all of that.

I have to add, however, two things.
First, that there were a number of Jews already in Libya; and also that, if the PoD is in 1940 (Italy chooses not to declare war), then the racial laws are unfortunately already in force.
It might be possible that Italian Jews are enticed to move to Libya with the other Italian settlers, if the enforcement of the laws is more lax down there, or if a separate legal regime is made available there. A complete repeal of the laws isn't likely, IMHO, for a few years to come.
Naturally, even with the laws full in force everywhere, that's still survival, as opposed to being loaded on trains heading for Auschwitz.
 
Exactly, all of that.

I have to add, however, two things.
First, that there were a number of Jews already in Libya; and also that, if the PoD is in 1940 (Italy chooses not to declare war), then the racial laws are unfortunately already in force.
It might be possible that Italian Jews are enticed to move to Libya with the other Italian settlers, if the enforcement of the laws is more lax down there, or if a separate legal regime is made available there. A complete repeal of the laws isn't likely, IMHO, for a few years to come.
Naturally, even with the laws full in force everywhere, that's still survival, as opposed to being loaded on trains heading for Auschwitz.
I seem to recall the the treatment of the Tripoline Jewish community was... complicated in that period. The Racial Laws were applied somewhat differently in Libya at first (Balbo opposed them IIRC) but applied they were. OTOH, local Jews were at times seen by Italy as a "loyal" demographic. The result was schizophrenic policy, which was quite a feature of Italian Fascist Regime at large indeed.
 
Exactly, all of that.

I have to add, however, two things.
First, that there were a number of Jews already in Libya; and also that, if the PoD is in 1940 (Italy chooses not to declare war), then the racial laws are unfortunately already in force.
It might be possible that Italian Jews are enticed to move to Libya with the other Italian settlers, if the enforcement of the laws is more lax down there, or if a separate legal regime is made available there. A complete repeal of the laws isn't likely, IMHO, for a few years to come.
Naturally, even with the laws full in force everywhere, that's still survival, as opposed to being loaded on trains heading for Auschwitz.

Enforcement was rather lax in areas OTL and would probably become laxer over time. If Italy decides that it should join the Allies so they can get some of the "goodies" it is likely repealed altogether.
 
Enforcement was rather lax in areas OTL and would probably become laxer over time. If Italy decides that it should join the Allies so they can get some of the "goodies" it is likely repealed altogether.

The racial laws weren't enacted until 1938, coinciding with Italy's growing alliance with Germany. It's been argued that they came about to appease Germany rather than as a response to any genuine anti-semitic feelings of the Italian people. If that's true, then in the OP's scenario it seems likely that there wouldn't be any racial laws to begin with.
 
I seem to recall the the treatment of the Tripoline Jewish community was... complicated in that period. The Racial Laws were applied somewhat differently in Libya at first (Balbo opposed them IIRC) but applied they were. OTOH, local Jews were at times seen by Italy as a "loyal" demographic. The result was schizophrenic policy, which was quite a feature of Italian Fascist Regime at large indeed.

in the case of a neutral Italy (and possibly even opportunistic Vichy regime) they could settle 10's of thousands, or 100's of thousands of Jews across N.Africa? that would certainly change the demographics, giving them if not a "loyal" minority, one that could be played against the Arab plurality?

a cynical (and profitable) plan, for which they could later claim pious, humanitarian reasons.
 
The racial laws weren't enacted until 1938, coinciding with Italy's growing alliance with Germany. It's been argued that they came about to appease Germany rather than as a response to any genuine anti-semitic feelings of the Italian people. If that's true, then in the OP's scenario it seems likely that there wouldn't be any racial laws to begin with.

Or quite likely repealed if Italy becomes neutral as there is no real reason to appease Hitler anymore.
 
The racial laws weren't enacted until 1938, coinciding with Italy's growing alliance with Germany. It's been argued that they came about to appease Germany rather than as a response to any genuine anti-semitic feelings of the Italian people. If that's true, then in the OP's scenario it seems likely that there wouldn't be any racial laws to begin with.

That's the established interpretation, but I had assumed the decision not to go to war was a last-minute choice, after 1938. If the PoD is earlier, then of course the laws can be not enacted at all.
 
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