Two Issues Here
The first issue is whether or not Greece will find itself attacked (as Yugoslavia) or occupied (as Romania) by a Pact of Steel partner. The issue of Metaxas being a totalitarian is often held up as a main prop of arguments suggesting Greece won't be attacked/occupied. What is not often brought out is the substantive Anglo/Francophilia of both the governing class and the populace as a whole. There is also the not too small matter of Metaxas dying Jan 1941 and the regime reverting to it's traditional orientation to the western powers.
There's no denying that Metaxas would have preferred to be on good terms with the POS partners; however the history of Italian foreign policy 1939-40 was sufficient to make Metaxas wary of becoming the next Austria or Czechoslovakia. Italy stumbled into invasion militarily, but diplomatically it had demonstrated a long standing animus towards Greece that, while it blew hot and cold, established considerable wariness throughout the Greek regime.
The POD that is being searched for here is not that Italy didn't invade, but that it's foreign policy was substantially different. A notable POD would be to have the 1928 treaty of friendship between the two powers renewed and strengthened rather than dissolve into a series of polite letters as OTL. You would also probably need to go all the way back to 1923 and disappear the Corfu incident. If you establish that Italy demonstrates consistent positivity towards Greece from the establishment of the Fascist regime you should create sufficient confidence for Metaxas to politely say 'we'll be fine' when the Anglo-French (and post-fall of France British restatement) offers of support and protection comes through in 1939.
This will go a long way to giving Hitler confidence that his Balkan flank is secure and prevent the use of Greek ports by British ships and flying in of RAF squadrons. There will be some additional consequences with respect to the Anglo-Turkish agreements and possibly further additions to the Vienna Awards, but things quickly get obscure here.
Once you have something approximating the above you can proceed to the second issue, which is what does Italy do with all those troops. If Libya is their destination then having more numbers won't do much as O'Connor defeated a vastly superior force anyway: you would need to prevent Graziani setting up the armed camp system. It may be that Yugoslavia is their destination, which is under pressure to join the Axis from the commencement of hostilities. However I think that Italy would still have problems as it's underlying military strength has substantial weaknesses. Then again it may be that Italy conducts a partial demobilisation.
Croesus
The first issue is whether or not Greece will find itself attacked (as Yugoslavia) or occupied (as Romania) by a Pact of Steel partner. The issue of Metaxas being a totalitarian is often held up as a main prop of arguments suggesting Greece won't be attacked/occupied. What is not often brought out is the substantive Anglo/Francophilia of both the governing class and the populace as a whole. There is also the not too small matter of Metaxas dying Jan 1941 and the regime reverting to it's traditional orientation to the western powers.
There's no denying that Metaxas would have preferred to be on good terms with the POS partners; however the history of Italian foreign policy 1939-40 was sufficient to make Metaxas wary of becoming the next Austria or Czechoslovakia. Italy stumbled into invasion militarily, but diplomatically it had demonstrated a long standing animus towards Greece that, while it blew hot and cold, established considerable wariness throughout the Greek regime.
The POD that is being searched for here is not that Italy didn't invade, but that it's foreign policy was substantially different. A notable POD would be to have the 1928 treaty of friendship between the two powers renewed and strengthened rather than dissolve into a series of polite letters as OTL. You would also probably need to go all the way back to 1923 and disappear the Corfu incident. If you establish that Italy demonstrates consistent positivity towards Greece from the establishment of the Fascist regime you should create sufficient confidence for Metaxas to politely say 'we'll be fine' when the Anglo-French (and post-fall of France British restatement) offers of support and protection comes through in 1939.
This will go a long way to giving Hitler confidence that his Balkan flank is secure and prevent the use of Greek ports by British ships and flying in of RAF squadrons. There will be some additional consequences with respect to the Anglo-Turkish agreements and possibly further additions to the Vienna Awards, but things quickly get obscure here.
Once you have something approximating the above you can proceed to the second issue, which is what does Italy do with all those troops. If Libya is their destination then having more numbers won't do much as O'Connor defeated a vastly superior force anyway: you would need to prevent Graziani setting up the armed camp system. It may be that Yugoslavia is their destination, which is under pressure to join the Axis from the commencement of hostilities. However I think that Italy would still have problems as it's underlying military strength has substantial weaknesses. Then again it may be that Italy conducts a partial demobilisation.
Croesus