Italy never invades Greece
- Thread starter Fenwick
- Start date
Kang Seung Jae
Banned
The Brits wouldn't have had the same diplomatic victory by standing up for Greece, thereby delaying the help from the US.
For Italy, Mussolini might stay in power longer because the public was outraged by the ineptitude of the army's performance.
For Germany, Hitler would have launched Operation Barbarossa earlier in 1941 and might have had a better chance of defeating the Soviet Union. He also wouldn't have invaded Crete.
For the Allies, Greece might have served as a starting point into getting back onto the Continent. It was the Germans who largely pushed the British out of Greece and Crete.
The resupply issue in the Mediterranean and North Africa might have gone differently with the Italians performing better or worse.
For Germany, Hitler would have launched Operation Barbarossa earlier in 1941 and might have had a better chance of defeating the Soviet Union. He also wouldn't have invaded Crete.
For the Allies, Greece might have served as a starting point into getting back onto the Continent. It was the Germans who largely pushed the British out of Greece and Crete.
The resupply issue in the Mediterranean and North Africa might have gone differently with the Italians performing better or worse.
Barbarossa can't be launched without a safe Balkan flank. With a British-held Greece Rumania and Hungary are exposed. German planning commenced Nov '40 for the Greek invasion. The Yugoslav coup will force Germany's hand. Germany is going in regardless to what Italy does.
The time period in question is Oct 40 - Mar 41, so only five months to do something with all those troops. COMPASS kicks off in the Western Desert in Dec 40, so I think the question becomes 'how much reinforcement can Italy provide to Tenth Army in two months, and how much difference does this make?' [given that the British OTL defeat an army 10 times it's size anyway].
Croesus
Balkans
With no Italian invasion of Greece, there's no British presence in the Balkans, thus no threat to Ploesti. Given that, Hitler is unlikely to push for either Bulgaria or Yugoslavia to join the Tripartite Pact.
Re Barbarossa, there was a late rainy season in the Spring, so I'm not sure of Germany gained more than a couple of weeks. Would that be enough to allow for the capture of Moscow?
Without a British diversion into Greece, Wavell probably has the time and troops to finish the conquest of Libya (can the Afrika Korps save Tripoli?).
With no Italian invasion of Greece, there's no British presence in the Balkans, thus no threat to Ploesti. Given that, Hitler is unlikely to push for either Bulgaria or Yugoslavia to join the Tripartite Pact.
Re Barbarossa, there was a late rainy season in the Spring, so I'm not sure of Germany gained more than a couple of weeks. Would that be enough to allow for the capture of Moscow?
Without a British diversion into Greece, Wavell probably has the time and troops to finish the conquest of Libya (can the Afrika Korps save Tripoli?).
A problem with the thinking of "Germany would invade Greece regardless" is that Hitler didn't want to invade Greece because:
A. He thought of Greeks very highly, believing that they were superior to Slavs (but obviously not as superior to the Germans).
B. There was already a "fascist" ruling Greece: Metaxas.
C. Nazi Germany borrowed a lot of ideas, through Albert Speer, from Greece, especially Ancient Greece. Thus, it can be said that Nazi architecture was a Nazi perversion of Ancient Greek architecture.
D. Hitler specifically ordered Mussolini NOT to invade Greece.
Hitler only went to Greece because Italy went, in defiance of what Hitler wanted. I don't want to sound revisionist here, but those were the reasons why Hitler didn't want to invade.
A. He thought of Greeks very highly, believing that they were superior to Slavs (but obviously not as superior to the Germans).
B. There was already a "fascist" ruling Greece: Metaxas.
C. Nazi Germany borrowed a lot of ideas, through Albert Speer, from Greece, especially Ancient Greece. Thus, it can be said that Nazi architecture was a Nazi perversion of Ancient Greek architecture.
D. Hitler specifically ordered Mussolini NOT to invade Greece.
Hitler only went to Greece because Italy went, in defiance of what Hitler wanted. I don't want to sound revisionist here, but those were the reasons why Hitler didn't want to invade.
Larrikin
Banned
Barbarossa
Churchill's and Roosevelt's intriguing in the Balkans in late winter 1941 was intended to delay Barbarossa, but due to the vagaries of the weather it had no effect on the eventual jump off date, but cost the British another 2 years in NA, the sinking or damaging of a large part of the RN's cruiser force plus assorted capital ships, and all it cost the Germans were their para force and their strategic reserve being late into place and a bit understrength.
What delayed Barbarossa from mid-May to early July was an exceptionally late and wet spring, and the ground was simply to wet to jump off earlier. The forces that went to the Balkans were never earmarked as jump off forces, but rather as reserves to deal with any problems that came up, such as an effective Soviet counter offensive.
Churchill's and Roosevelt's intriguing in the Balkans in late winter 1941 was intended to delay Barbarossa, but due to the vagaries of the weather it had no effect on the eventual jump off date, but cost the British another 2 years in NA, the sinking or damaging of a large part of the RN's cruiser force plus assorted capital ships, and all it cost the Germans were their para force and their strategic reserve being late into place and a bit understrength.
What delayed Barbarossa from mid-May to early July was an exceptionally late and wet spring, and the ground was simply to wet to jump off earlier. The forces that went to the Balkans were never earmarked as jump off forces, but rather as reserves to deal with any problems that came up, such as an effective Soviet counter offensive.
With no Crete invasion...
...the Fallschirmjäger isn't crippled by losses. So, possible impact from their availability in Barbarossa? Further, the success of Merita-Merkur impressed the Allies enough that they formed their own paratroop units. Perhaps this doctrine makes less headway this TL.
...the Fallschirmjäger isn't crippled by losses. So, possible impact from their availability in Barbarossa? Further, the success of Merita-Merkur impressed the Allies enough that they formed their own paratroop units. Perhaps this doctrine makes less headway this TL.
I can't agree. None of the above is borne out by my present reading and I'm looking at precisely at this area. The racial angle is a chimera: he was quite happy to overrun Aryan/Nordic countries and the Mediteranean was a toilet in race terms. Greece accepted Franco-British guarantees as given Apr 13 1939 following annexation of Albania (so you would need to extend the POD to no Albanian adventures) and the guarantee was given again following the fall of France. Germany borrowed a lot of ideas from many places (later in the war it would be called looting); there was more attention given to the national epic of Arminius than that of ancient or modern Greece. Hitler went through several stages in terms of his attitude to Italian designs for Greece, while it can be argued that he 'forbade' adventures there in 1941 he wasn't so pointed in the period 1934 - 40.
Croesus
As I understand everything with out going into Greece Italy has more troops to throw at Africa. Some say this will be in Englands favor, but do recall the Italiajs where preforming rather well up until Mussolini started holding back, or pulling out troops so he could take over Greece.
So Italy declares war on Greece on October 28, 1940, and the first British victory against the Italians was on September 13, 1940, Many point to the fact that Mussolini held back artillery, tanks, planes and many supplies to prepare to invade Greece. Even if the Italians still loose to the British they would knew only 35,000 troops where there, so they would send in a larger force say the 529,000 men sent to Greece.
This means Germany gets to focus on the East, and fell rather secure to the south. Now with Italy fairing better in Libya, and England focusing on the outter edges of the war, you will have intense focus there. Germany will have no need to supply a distant army across a sea, and have one of its best tank commanders in Russia.
So Germany winning may be a stretch, but I can see them doing better.
So Italy declares war on Greece on October 28, 1940, and the first British victory against the Italians was on September 13, 1940, Many point to the fact that Mussolini held back artillery, tanks, planes and many supplies to prepare to invade Greece. Even if the Italians still loose to the British they would knew only 35,000 troops where there, so they would send in a larger force say the 529,000 men sent to Greece.
This means Germany gets to focus on the East, and fell rather secure to the south. Now with Italy fairing better in Libya, and England focusing on the outter edges of the war, you will have intense focus there. Germany will have no need to supply a distant army across a sea, and have one of its best tank commanders in Russia.
So Germany winning may be a stretch, but I can see them doing better.
Even if Mussolini skips invading Greece Hitler would never risk an attack in USSR with his flank exposed to the British in Greece and Yugoslavia... And of course the most vulnerable part was the oil fields in Romania...
If Mussolini doesnot invades Greece Hitler would definetely do... so he could proceed with Operation Barbarossa... at the earliest possible date...
If Mussolini doesnot invades Greece Hitler would definetely do... so he could proceed with Operation Barbarossa... at the earliest possible date...
Disagree
What created the danger to Hitler's flank wasn't an independent Greece, it was a Britain that was present in Greece because of the Italian invasion. Without an Italian invasion, the UK isn't going to be sending troops to Greece.
The problem was supplies, a lack of mobile forces and bad morale. The Italians had not been performing well and didn't even reach the main British defenses at Mersa Matruh.
What created the danger to Hitler's flank wasn't an independent Greece, it was a Britain that was present in Greece because of the Italian invasion. Without an Italian invasion, the UK isn't going to be sending troops to Greece.
Fenwick said:
The problem was supplies, a lack of mobile forces and bad morale. The Italians had not been performing well and didn't even reach the main British defenses at Mersa Matruh.
Britain not going to Greece is one of my favorite WW2 PODs.... will Wavell be able to take over all of Libya, as he was on the verge of doing in OTL? Italy will have more troops and equipment to send... but to get them there, they have to run the risk of putting themselves in the reach of the RAF planes on Malta; the end result might just be more Italian shipping sunk. Without the Greece sideshow, will Italy and Germany make more of an effort in N. Africa? Or will the Brits simply overrun Libya so fast that the Axis will write it off as a lost cause? What are the long term consequences of no air assault on a Crete that stays in British hands, no Axis occupation of Greece and the Balkans.....
Max Sinister
Banned
This would become his Waterloo. Egypt and Greece were bad enough, but against the strong, highly trained and motivated Swiss fighting on their own turf... I just want to say: During the medieval, the Swiss once tried to conquer Milan, which was too big for them to swallow. ITTL it might work.
Besides Mussolini was a HUGE egomaniac... He wanted an illustrius victory over whatever nation fell into his hands for propaganda causes...
When Greece beat his ass the myth of the invincible Fascist Army collapsed just like that and he had to call his buddy Hitller to clean up the mess he made up in Albania... (Libya doesnt count... Italians fought with British Empire while in ALbania they fought an inferior but much much braver army...)
When Greece beat his ass the myth of the invincible Fascist Army collapsed just like that and he had to call his buddy Hitller to clean up the mess he made up in Albania... (Libya doesnt count... Italians fought with British Empire while in ALbania they fought an inferior but much much braver army...)