Italy neutral in WWI, how does this affect Italy as a power

Now the trick are the speed of negotiation and their development, in OTL they were long and nasty enough to easy permit to the entente to wage a diplomatic offensive that greatly helped derailed them plus the fact that between Italy and A-H trust was not much.
In the end this offer are enough to keep Italy out of the war due to the greatly neutralist majority and the diplomatic face saved

Also, make Austria offer the territory now instead of what they offered (after the war). Vienna planned on double-crossing Italy with the proposal (get Italy in the war, renege on the promise later) and the Italians knew it. Thus, immediate transfer of power.

Good luck getting the Austrians to agree, though. The Germans barely managed to get the OTL promise out of Austria, even with the Austrian mauling in Galizia and the planned double-cross.
 
Also, make Austria offer the territory now instead of what they offered (after the war). Vienna planned on double-crossing Italy with the proposal (get Italy in the war, renege on the promise later) and the Italians knew it. Thus, immediate transfer of power.

Good luck getting the Austrians to agree, though. The Germans barely managed to get the OTL promise out of Austria, even with the Austrian mauling in Galizia and the planned double-cross.

And yes as i said trust between the two were not really much, for this reason Kaiser Willy pledged his personal assurance for that and proposed to make all pubblic; better if there is a timetable for the passage and not a generic after.
With a little of hindsight one can say that after WWI if the A-h leaderships suggest another round so they can safely renege a trety the only thing they will get will be a bullet in the center of their head from the troops and a socialist revolution in their hand, with Italy probably grab even more (so to protect the italian minority and battle the god-forsaken socialist/communist:rolleyes:).
More realistically it's an hard pill to swallow but Giolitti and the parlament can be convinced (expecially if a little effort is done for support this in the press) in taking the risk, expecially if there is the assurance/feeling that Germany will not intervene in aid A-H and the war will still last some time.

Regarding A-H how she emerge from the war much depends on how the conflict last. The longest the duration of the war is, more the thing become complicated in the aftermath (death, crippled, debt, economic turmoil, lost of credibility of the ruling class, socialisti/communist inroad), regardless of who win and lose, and A-H is the less equipped to resist them; contrary a quick enough victory can give the goverment enough clout to implement reforms for the long ride but things will surely change and the day of the Hasburg rule are numbered (they will probably become just like the British monarch now)
 
A lesser effect would be the cultural one. Wars unite, and Italian patriotism was forged almost completely by the two World Wars. If Italy stays out of both it will be richer, but also more prone to fall apart at the seams. Expect way stronger and earlier independence parties - Northern League up to eleven.
 
A lesser effect would be the cultural one. Wars unite, and Italian patriotism was forged almost completely by the two World Wars. If Italy stays out of both it will be richer, but also more prone to fall apart at the seams. Expect way stronger and earlier independence parties - Northern League up to eleven.

Naaa the Northen League was born in 90's due to the total collapse of the traditional party and general dissafection of the population from politics, rethoric excluded none really believe that they go for the separation of North Italy (except some very minor fringe) just push for a more federal goverment and tax/fund redistribution. Italian patriotism was not born in the world wars but with decades of hard propaganda works after the unification and in putting the risorgimento as the greatest moment in recent history; without WWII and the fascism, plus the 'undeclared' civil war during and after the war, will be probably still fashionable be a strong nationalist and the society will be more unite even if more reactionary and with women rights slowing in develop.
In general except the terrorist in south tyrol of German origin, all the various independist party were off-shot of the aftermath of WWII (both political and economic) and the economic and social crisis of the 70's and many have some tie with the Red Brigade.
 
There were/are more uniting aspects in Italy than dividing. also OTLs "independence" moves are mainly "threats" to get a better deal for the northern parts. I.E. the rich want to get richer. But usually this schemes don't work this way. Only the money that runs south buys goods products made in the north, so the more goes south the more will come back.

As much as I "despise" our southern neighbours on a purely emotional level ;) (that was meant ironic of course) for stabbing us in the back (from the 19th century on), I can see why they did it and why they had to do it...
 
A lesser effect would be the cultural one. Wars unite, and Italian patriotism was forged almost completely by the two World Wars.

Nonsense. Italian patriotism was forged by the wars of unification.

WW I severely tried Italian patriotism; patriotism came to mean repeated disastrous assaults on the Isonzo front, ending in the debacle of Caporetto, and then a dubious victory at the last minute when Austria collapsed; all accompanied by enormous and apparently pointless casualties.

WW II was even worse; a long series of debacles, due to the incompetence of the government which had gone to war in a cloud of "patriotic" rhetoric, ending in the devastation of the country, and finally expulsion of the Germans by the US and UK, with the help of a few mostly Communist partisans.
 
It didn't do Spain a great deal of good in the long-term staying neutral, so I think people are being a bit too rosey-eyed here about Italy. Wartime boom is followed by post-war depression, and by a feeling of having missed out on potentially massive gains. Is the army going to find it tougher subjugating the Somali sultanates in the 1920s or won't they even bother?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Germany could offer the Italians to give the Italians parts of France, like Corsica and Savoy after the war and some bits of Austria now.

Then if the French discover Italy cant join cause the Central Powers' offers are to enticing it offers to give bits of Austria if the Entente wins, thus maintaining true Italian neutrality
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
In the event of a CP victory, would a vengeful A-H look to attack Italy knowing the latter's potential allies, France & Russia (& probably the UK), will be unable or unwilling to come to the Italian's aid? Regain some of Venetia perhaps? Or do you think Vienna & Budapest would be satisfied with gains in the Balkans/

There may also be a feeling, particularly in Berlin, that the Italians let down their Triple Alliance powers by opting out of war. The Kaiser was usually pretty keen to get his own back on Germany's "betrayers". I suppose it depends whether war-weariness outweights aggrandizement & a desire for vengeance.
 

Esopo

Banned
In the event of a CP victory, would a vengeful A-H look to attack Italy knowing the latter's potential allies, France & Russia (& probably the UK), will be unable or unwilling to come to the Italian's aid? Regain some of Venetia perhaps? Or do you think Vienna & Budapest would be satisfied with gains in the Balkans/

There may also be a feeling, particularly in Berlin, that the Italians let down their Triple Alliance powers by opting out of war. The Kaiser was usually pretty keen to get his own back on Germany's "betrayers". I suppose it depends whether war-weariness outweights aggrandizement & a desire for vengeance.

Yes if the CP win, they Will seek recenge Against italy.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
It didn't do Spain a great deal of good in the long-term staying neutral, so I think people are being a bit too rosey-eyed here about Italy. Wartime boom is followed by post-war depression, and by a feeling of having missed out on potentially massive gains. Is the army going to find it tougher subjugating the Somali sultanates in the 1920s or won't they even bother?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

So if Spain joins WW1, what do you see them gaining? And which side do you see them joining?

Germany could offer the Italians to give the Italians parts of France, like Corsica and Savoy after the war and some bits of Austria now.

Then if the French discover Italy cant join cause the Central Powers' offers are to enticing it offers to give bits of Austria if the Entente wins, thus maintaining true Italian neutrality

Sure they could, but there are some difficulties. Germany can't really take Corsica, so it would have to be a trade of French land in the NE for Corsica. And it is questionable whether France, UK, or Germany would really do this item. Savoy is possible, if the Italians can take it before the war ends. Hard to take terrain.

IMO, neutral is about the best the CP can get out of Italy.
 
In the event of a CP victory, would a vengeful A-H look to attack Italy knowing the latter's potential allies, France & Russia (& probably the UK), will be unable or unwilling to come to the Italian's aid? Regain some of Venetia perhaps? Or do you think Vienna & Budapest would be satisfied with gains in the Balkans/

There may also be a feeling, particularly in Berlin, that the Italians let down their Triple Alliance powers by opting out of war. The Kaiser was usually pretty keen to get his own back on Germany's "betrayers". I suppose it depends whether war-weariness outweights aggrandizement & a desire for vengeance.

Well the fear that the victorious CP will seek vengeance on the 'traituors' neutral ally was one of the factor that the goverment valued in the decision of enter the war; on the other side the Kaiser heavily lobbied and pressured the A-H to give concession to Italy so to mantain their neutrality (better if CP aligned) and so having the possibility to break the entente blockade so the German will be a little pissed but not terribly as in the end this situation is better for them.
With a little of hindsight, the possibility of CP retaliation after the war are minimal, Germany, A-H and the OE will be too exshausted and war weary to even think to attack the only fresh power left on the continent only for 'revenge' plus there is the fact that they had bigger fish to fry, between the new territory and puppet goverment to defend and prop-up, the internal political turmoil (A-H is due to face some hard times) and social problem caused by the war. Later i see relationship be not real good and cold but war? i doubt it, the population of the victorious CP will be weary of another conflict as France and UK in OTL
 
It didn't do Spain a great deal of good in the long-term staying neutral, so I think people are being a bit too rosey-eyed here about Italy. Wartime boom is followed by post-war depression, and by a feeling of having missed out on potentially massive gains. Is the army going to find it tougher subjugating the Somali sultanates in the 1920s or won't they even bother?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The fact that Italy will skip a million of death and an equal number of crippled, a crushing debt who lasted till the 70's and a fascist dictatorship are all plus in my book. There will be political turmoil? Sure, in the end a showdown between socialist, liberal - goverment and proto-fascist was inevitable but in this case the goverment hold all the better card (and in the word of a WWI veteran: after years on the Carso the Carabinieri really don't impress us much anymore). Wartime boom will cause a post-war depression sure, but it will be less than OTL (due to massive military building and the war expediture) and in a less stressed social situation; the feeling of lost occasion will be there, but more for the vocal minority who want the war, the majority of the italian pubblic opinion was for neutrality.
Regarding Somalia (and Libya) the colonies will be probably 'pacified' during the war probably to keep some people occupied.
 
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